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Swansea v Arsenal: Just how good does a new manager have to be?

By Bulldog Drummond

Actually I wanted to call this, “Just how good does a new manager have to be; just how bad does an old manager have to be?” but it was too long to fit in the subject line.

And I wanted the long title because it is a relevant question here.  Carvalhal has virtually identical records with Sheffield Wednesday who sacked him, and Swansea who think he is their saviour.   Here’s what has happened

On 28 December Swansea City named Carlos Augusto Soares da Costa Faria Carvalhal as their new manager until the end of the season with the option of an extension (of his contract, not of his name).  It is his 17th managerial appointment, having come from Sheffield Wednesday – the only club he ever managed for more than one season.

With Wednesday he had a win ratio of 42.7%.  With Swansea it is 42.9% after seven games.  By way of comparison across 1212 games at Arsenal Mr Wenger has a 57.4% win ratio.  In case you like such stats here are a few more Arsenal managers (excluding the stop gaps).

Manager Started Ended Games Win ratio
Herbert Chapman June 1925 Jan 1934 403 49.88%
Joe Shaw January 1934 May 1934 23 60.87%
George Allison May 1934 May 1947 279 46.24%
Tom Whittaker June 1947 October  1956 429 47.09%
Jack Crayston October 1956 May 1958 77 42.86%
George Swindin June 1958 1 May 1962 179 39.11%
Billy Wright May 1962 June 1966 182 38.46%
Bertie Mee June 1966 May 1976 539 44.71%
Terry Neill July 1976 Dec 1983 416 44.95%
Don Howe Dec 1983 March 1986[ 117 46.15%
George Graham May 1986 Feb 1995 460 48.91%
Bruce Rioch June 1995 August 1996 47 46.81%

So with 42.7% win ration we can put Carvalhal on a par with Jack Crayston, and better than Billy Wright and George Swindin.  Best performer in that list above is of course Joe Shaw who took over from Herbert Chapman for half a season after the great man’s passing.  Chapman was of course the best of the long term manager… until Mr Wenger came along.

Carvalhal was dismissed from Sheffield Wednesday after they lost to Middlesbrough.  Prior to that they had won one in 11 games. losing eight and drawing two.  Thus he has improved Swansea, where he was failing to make the grade with Middlesbrough.  A perfect example of new manager bounce.  But his winning record with Swansea is no different from his winning record with Sheffield Wednesday who sacked him.  It’s a funny old game.

Here’s his Swansea record.

Date Game Res Score Competition
30 Dec 17 Watford v Swansea City W 1-2 Premier League
02 Jan 18 Swansea City v Tottenham Hotspur L 0-2 Premier League
06 Jan 18 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Swansea D 0-0 FA Cup
13 Jan 18 Newcastle United v Swansea City D 1-1 Premier League
17 Jan 18 Swansea City v Wolverhampton Wand W 2-1 FA Cup
22 Jan 18 Swansea City v Liverpool W 1-0 Premier League
27 Jan 18 Notts County v Swansea City D 1-1 FA Cup

Since joining he has delivered three wins, three draws and one defeat, and has the team undefeated in the last five. New manager bounce indeed.

After beating Chelsea in the semi-finals they won the league cup in 2006, having won it previously in 1994, these being Swansea’s two major trophies.  In the PL since promotion they have come 11, 9, 12, 8 12, and 15th.

The total number of points needed to stay up (averaged across the years) in the Premier League is 37 (not the 40 sometimes quoted).   Here’s the foot of the table as it stands at present…

Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts
15 Newcastle United 24 6 5 13 22 34 -12 23
16 Brighton and Hove Albion 24 5 8 11 17 33 -16 23
17 Stoke City 24 6 5 13 25 50 -25 23
18 Southampton 24 4 10 10 24 35 -11 22
19 West Bromwich Albion 24 3 11 10 19 31 -12 20
20 Swansea City 24 5 5 14 15 35 -20 20

Last season at the foot of the table it ended…

Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts
17 Watford 38 11 7 20 40 68 -28 40
18 Hull City 38 9 7 22 37 80 -43 34
19 Middlesbrough 38 5 13 20 27 53 -26 28
20 Sunderland 38 6 6 26 29 69 -40 24

Looking at this, in the 14 remaining games Swansea need maybe six wins and a couple of draws, allowing them just six defeats – in order words they need mid-table form from now on, and certainly in the League in the last few games they have been delivering this.

So now let’s have a look at the draw with Notts County at the weekend.  Swansea put out a second XI for the game with only Mawson, Carroll, Clucas, Ki, Fer and Ayew featuring in both that game and the previous league game.  (Notts County are in League Two and lying second in the League at this moment).

If we just take Swansea’s last five league games we get

Date Game Res Score Competition
26 Dec 17 Liverpool v Swansea City L 5-0 Premier League
30 Dec 17 Watford v Swansea City W 1-2 Premier League
02 Jan 18 Swansea City v Tottenham Ho L 0-2 Premier League
13 Jan 18 Newcastle United v Swansea D 1-1 Premier League
22 Jan 18 Swansea City v Liverpool W 1-0 Premier League

Two wins, two defeats and a draw.  Goals scored four, goals against seven.

Thus psychologically an uplift from some decent results of late which if continued are enough to keep them up, and a downer because they were held by a League Two side in a match that included over half their first team.

 

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16 comments to Swansea v Arsenal: Just how good does a new manager have to be?

  • Minesy

    “After beating Chelsea in the semi-finals they won the league cup in 2006, having won it previously in 1994” … don’t tell Villa that !!! Swansea actually won the FA Trophy in 1994, (as they did in 2006) …

  • Minesy

    Their League Cup was in 2013 … did you get a job working as a BBC Sport researcher ???? 😀

  • SamuelAkinsolaAdebosin

    Statistics apart, Arsenal who have made up their minds and are fully set and ready to beat Swansea City comes what may in the Premier League match encounter between the Swans and the Gunners tomorrow Tuesday night at the Liberty Stadium will beat the Swans resoundingly to the point of total submission in the game and come away with all the points that will be at stake in the match. And even the Swans team manager, Caria Carvalhal and his Swans team have already known that Arsenal will beat them despite their surprised 1-0 home victory over Liverpool last Monday in the PL. But Arsenal who are not Liverpool visiting the Liberty Stadium but are Arsenals will not fall victims to any callousness in the match on Tuesday night but will beat the Swans heavily in the match.

    Arsenal will not be overconfident in this match but will be confident enough in the game to get the job of beating the Swans remarkably done. Getting inspired from their last beatings of Crystal Palace in the PL and Chelsea in the EFL all at the Ems, the Gunners who are yet to wallop any team at away in the PL this season could be tempted tomorrow night to wallop the Swans 0-4 in the match.

  • Chris

    Interesting to see that Guardila’s comments on ‘lax’ refereeing are getting picked up by the press.
    Maybe it is the good time for AW to speak out as well… however maybe he’ll get banned again….

    Can’t remember anything else then sarcasm and ‘cry baby this is a men’s game’ when AW brought up the subject in the past.

    Not that I expect it will affect refereing for Arsenal games. But at least the ‘star manager’ is criticizing PL refereeing….

  • MickHazel

    Chris
    Agreed entirely.
    I don’t recall comparable media interest and coverage when Wilshere was injured by dubious challenges, eg McNair’s horror tackle that put Jack out for months.

  • Chris

    Mick,

    yep, you can add quite a few other names onto that list….. Debuchy, Ramsey, Alexis, Diaby, Reyes, and I am sure I forget a few there

    The only thing we’d hear is criticism of AW’s training methods… and on occasions AW getting fined and suspended.

  • Micko

    @Minesy
    Actually Woking won the FA Trophy at Wembley in 1994, beating Runcorn 2-1 in the final.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FA_Trophy_finals

  • John L

    Plus Saga, Walcott and, of course, Eduardo.

  • Swansea? Destroyed, Arsenal, rampant and vintage, clean sheet! Aubameyang, onb route. Giroud, max cost, Chelsea move, if you really want it! Offset, Aubameyang, we don’t play them again this season anyways, plus by the time we do, they#’ll be lighter one GK, one World Class WF and probably a CM/DM off to the French Capital, like the European Banking Authority.

  • Minesy

    Micko

    Sorry can’t read !!! Swansea won the Football LEAGUE Trophy that year 🙂

  • Minesy

    Getting that BBC Job Application filled in ASAP !!! 😀

  • Steve Vallins

    Mick & Chris
    Agree entirely what you say , Arsenal players have to man up the referees are doing a wonderful job also we’ve had the most protection from them over the years

  • Nitram

    Mick and Chris

    As I’ve said on here many times, the same thing happened back in 2015 when Mourinho started whinging about Chelsea’s lack of penalties.

    He got a very sympathetic ear from most sections of the media, especially Martin Samuels whom did a big article, stats and all, to back him up.

    Shame he, or anyone else for that matter hasn’t seen fit to do the same for us despite over 10 years of damning stats.

    Samuels, Lawrence, Olly, Cross, they all know these stats they just don’t give a shit.

    But regarding what Pep says, yes he almost certainly has a point, but as you say you can just imagine the shit Wenger would get for saying something similar.

  • MickHazel

    To those who regularly come on here and vehemently defend the media against accusations of negative reporting on all things Arsenal, witness the bare faced double standards we have seen today from the likes of Talk Sport.
    After years of accusing Arsenal and Wenger of being southern softies, not liking it up’em and a bunch of whinging cry babies we have now witnessed today the very same media scumbags like Durham taking the exact opposite ground and condemning overly aggressive and dangerous tackles.

  • Menace

    Nitram – If Wenger said what Pep did, he would get a stadium ban for 3 months.

    The problem is these FA bastards can do anything including stopping you from working in football. They allow pedos to get away without open investigation, appoint shit as bosses & then wonder why England are unsuccessful.

  • Menace

    Mick – the scumbag Durham is not worth employing as Domestos (toilet cleaner). He has no shame & has a group of well financed support, my life, my boy.

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