By Tony Attwood
Yellow cards are on the rise. But beyond that the figures that we have seen so far this season for tackles, fouls and yellow cards are curious. And as I hope to show by the end of this little piece, it may well be that Arsenal have developed an alternative tactic to dealing with the approach of PGMO referees toward the club in each game.
Consider to begin, that Leicester putting in 21% more tackles than Arsenal and yet are getting fewer fouls given against them and Arsenal, and at the moment the same number of yellow cards for fouls, as Arsenal.
We have never seen this situation replicated since, but what we have seen season after season is that
- Clubs that tackle more get a lower percentage of those tackles seen as fouls.
- Clubs that tackle more get a lower percentage of those tackles seen as worthy of a yellow
- Clubs that foul more get a lower percentage of those fouls rewarded with a yellow.
So what I think we are seeing is a new approach in which Arsenal will tackle more than they have been. As to why this could work really well, I will show below, but as ever it does involve some statistics. (And I might add statistics based on official figures, but which you won’t find analysed anywhere else).;
Take these sample clubs for example. (PG of course stands for “per game”.
| Team | Tackles pg | Fouls pg | Yellows From fouls pG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 22.2 | 10.6 | 1.0 |
| West Ham Utd | 15.8 | 13.0 | 2.8 |
| Arsenal | 17.8 | 13.0 | 2.0 |
| Leicester City | 21.6 | 12.6 | 2.0 |
So let’s see how this works out when we relate tackles, fouls and yellows to each other. Although let me add a caveat, in that we have seen one or two odd figures crop up this early in the season, due to the fact that the number of yellow cards per game given for tackling tends to be quite low. So these are just a hint of what may be happening – but I think we can get a view of where Arsenal are going, in their efforts to combat PGMO.. Figures are per game.
| Team | Tackles per Foul | Tackles per yellow | Fouls Per Yellows |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 2.09 | 2.09 | 10.6 |
| West Ham Utd | 1.22 | 1.22 | 4.64 |
| Arsenal | 1.37 | 1.37 | 6.5 |
| Leicester City | 1.71 | 1.71 | 6.3 |
So what is happening is that Everton are in such dire straits that the referees are simply being lenient (“working to keep 11 men on the pitch” as they might say) – as they generally are with clubs that tackle and foul the most.
Everton are tackling at a rate that suggests their defence is over 50% better at tackling than Arsenal’s – which certainly isn’t what it looks like, and isn’t true in practice when we consider that Everton haven’t won a game yet .
But as ever that final column – the yellow cards per game from fouling – is of special interest. We have of course seen this before – the clubs that commit the most fouls have the lowest percentage of their fouls rewarded by a yellow card.
Everton are tackling at a very high rate but the number of fouls and yellow cards they are being rewarded with for those fouls is very small compared with the teams and tackle and foul less.
In short tackling and fouling a lot is rewarded by greater leniency by the referee – and is it happening (as we have shown) season after season.
So in this weekend’s game we can expect Leicester to tackle about 24% more times than Arsenal and yet get hauled up for this by getting fewer fouls against them.
This is clearly nonsense, and yet it happens year after year – although it is true that the excessive way Leicester were achieving this a few years back was not allowed to continue after our exposé.
In response Arsenal has year after year been trying to reduce its tackling level – until now.
However at the moment it is running at 17.8 tackles per game with 10 yellows from fouls. That will give a season total of 76 yellow cards from fouls.
Last season Arsenal were running at 16.1 tackles per game with 43 yellows from fouls. In 2022/23 it was 14.9 tackles per game with 32 yellows from fouls. In 2021/22 it was 14.2 with 47 yellows from fouls.
So we have an upward trend toward tackling each year.- but now the rise in the number of yellow cards being awarded against Arsenal is clearly vindictive and we shall very soon start losing players on suspension because of this.
And of course yellows are not being waved around just for tackles. Overall Arsenal have picked up 15 yellow cards for all reasons (obviously we are all aware of the new mega-offence of kicking the ball a yard away). This will mean Arsenal will end up with 114 cards, beating the insane 105 yellows achieved by Chelsea last season.
This is a massive escalation in cards – two seasons ago three clubs reached the top of the yellow chart by getting 84 cards. Go back to 2020/21 and the total for the most carded team was 73. Thus in four years cards have gone up by 56% – but without this having any effect on tackling!
So obviously Arsenal either need to be super careful about getting cards, or, if it is felt that will interfere with the style of play, make sure that the whole 25 man squad, and those under 21s who looked so good in the last game, are ready to step in when the cards mount up. After all cards are no problem if the club has cover.
Indeed it may well be that Arsenal are resigned to the fact that it is impossible to stop the wild machinations of PGMO, and so are indeed willing to take the cards because they have the tactics and squad depth to overcome the problem.
The media won’t get this of course, and will rant and rage against Dirty Arsenal, but now you’ve read this, I hope when that happens you can be a little more relaxed.
