- Why Arsenal are ready to accept a massive increase in yellow cards this season
- Arsenal v Leicester and the very curious case of Leicester’s yellow cards
By Bulldog Drummond
Although only five games have gone and only four referees have overseen four or five games each, we can still see enormous differences emerging between referees over the way they handle games. For example, Samuel Barrott who oversees the Arsenal game this weekend has awarded almost a third more fouls than Michael Oliver – and given the way that referees are handing out fouls against Arsenal so far this season, this could become a record fouling season for Arsenal.
In terms of tackles per foul, he is one of the referees who will see most tackles as – and for example Mr A Taylor sees 28% fewer tackles as fouls, compared to Mr S. Barrott. But when we come to yellow cards Mr Barrott is right up there, handing out on average 6.5 cards a game! He is by far the most card-prone of the regular referees this season. And now he is overseeing Arsenal.
Arsenal are already on 15 cards and so are already the fifth most-carded team this season. Leicester have received 11. However, when we just look at yellow cards for fouls Arsenal are on nine to Leicester’s ten. In short, Arsenal receive a lot of cards for what we might call unexplained extraneous purposes.
In terms of results this season, two of this referee’s four games have been away wins, one a draw and one a home win. But of course, this is only four games so let us have a look at last season and the range of results we can see.
In each case we are seeing the league games each referee oversaw and how many of those games fell into each category. In this table we take the Arsenal referee this weekend and three others as examples, considering their results for last year.
There have been 50 games in the league this season. 17 games have been home wins, 18 have been away wins and 15 have been draws. That is 34% home wins, 36% away wins and 30% draws. Radically different from last season, or any previous season. But not all referees fit into this pattern.
| Referee | Games | HomeWin | AwayWin | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Taylor | 27 | 37.0% | 29.6% | 33.3% |
| Paul Tierney | 25 | 36.0% | 44.0% | 20.0% |
| Robert Jones | 22 | 63.6% | 13.6% | 22.7% |
| Jarred Gillett | 21 | 42.9% | 47.6% | 9.5% |
| Range | 28.6% | 34% | 23,8% |
More than ever before, which referee the club gets affects the result. If Arsenal had Robert Jones for example the club would be helped along no end. The chances are however that for the rest of the season Arsenal will only see Robert Jones when they are playing away.
But looking further there is now something very, very weird about Samuel Barrott as a referee….
| Barrott / season | Games | Fouls/game | Yellows/game |
| Samuel Barrott 2023/24 | 15 | 20.13 | 3.13 |
| Samuel Barrott 2024/25 | 4 | 26.25 | 6.50 |
OK we must start by acknowledging that Mr Barrott has only overseen four games this season, but his average number of fouls has risen dramatically; the results are bizarre in the extreme.
The fouls that he is seeing per game has risen by 30%. That is astonishing. The number of fouls being committed overall is not rising anything like that, but suddenly Mr Battott is seeing fouls whereas before he saw tackles.
But worse than that the number of yellow cards he is seeing per game has gone up by an unbelievable 108%. Which is to say (rather obviously) it has more than doubled.
So how can this have happened? Of course it could be that PGMO have told him that he has been underdoing the yellow cards last season, and should hand out more. But that would imply that PGMO allow such a set of errors to run on all season before they bother to intercede. Or is it that yellow cards generally are on the up?
In fact we find the latter is true to some extent. Last season the average yellow card showing per match in the Premier League was 4.22 across the whole season.
This season it is 5.16 yellow cards per game. That is an increase of 22%. Which is a big increase but nothing compared to Mr Barrott’s 108% increase.
The fact is there is no reason for the card numbers to go up at all, unless the argument is that player behaviour is getting worse. Certainly the laws of the game have not been changed. But for one referee to be giving out yellow cards at over double his rate last season is bonkers.
I would say Mr Barrott should be hauled off for examination so he can explain himself, but his answer is most likely to be “I was just doing what I was told.” And that is one of the major tragedies of the Premier League. The secretive PGMO issue an edict and the minions obey.
We might as well be in the Middle Ages kicking lumps of mud around.
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I may be wrong but it does appear that the selection of referees for Arsenal games has been extremely strategic this season (more so than as is usual for us). In line with what you suggest, I’d make a sizable bet that the first time we get Robert Jones we’ll be away!!