The allocation of referees in the Premier League has got out of hand

Liverpool’s season now features two referees accounting for 38% of their matches, four referees accounting for 67% of their matches,

The Title Clash with Historic Concentration: Taylor-Liverpool Reaches 4×

In what may be the defining match of the season, Arsenal host Liverpool on January 8th with the title balance hanging by a thread.  Into this cauldron of maximum pressure, PGMOL has assigned Anthony Taylor—who will reach 4× encounters with Liverpool, making him the second referee to achieve Critical-level concentration with the league leaders.

The timing could not be more significant. At 52.6% through the season (210 matches, 420 encounters), Liverpool becomes the only club in modern Premier League history to have two different referees reach 4× encounters while in the title race. Chris Kavanagh reached 4× with Liverpool on New Year’s Day. Three weeks later, Anthony Taylor joins him. Two referees, eight encounters, 21.1% of Liverpool’s season—all while fighting for the championship.

The competitive implications are staggering. Liverpool’s season now features two referees accounting for 38% of their matches, four referees accounting for 67% of their matches, and all of this concentrated exposure occurring while they lead the Premier League table. Manchester United had Oliver at 4× earlier this season—but United sits mid-table. Liverpool fights for the title with double the concentration crisis.

The Arsenal-Liverpool Assignment: Maximum Stakes, Maximum Concentration

The January 8th fixture represents the highest-stakes match of the season to date. Arsenal vs Liverpool. First vs Second (or close). Title race implications. Global audience. Maximum scrutiny. And into this pressure cooker, PGMOL assigns a referee reaching his fourth encounter with one of the competitors.

This isn’t abstract mathematics. The assignment places a referee at 4× with one title contender against another club at 3× with the same referee. Combined, Arsenal and Liverpool account for 47% of Anthony Taylor’s season workload. Whether this affects outcomes through familiarity, pattern recognition, or pure coincidence is unknowable. What is certain: the concentration pattern exists, it’s measurable, and it occurs in the season’s most consequential match.

The Six-Club 4× Landscape: Critical Concentrations Beyond Midseason

MW21 assignments bring the total number of Critical-level concentrations to six referee-club pairings at 4× or higher—more than three times the expected frequency at this stage of the season:

Six pairings at 4× represents a 400-500% deviation from the expected distribution. The pattern isn’t random variation—it’s systematic concentration. And Liverpool’s dual-4× status places them in unprecedented territory: no title-contending club in modern Premier League history has carried two simultaneous Critical concentrations this deep into a season.

Title Contenders and Concentration: The Competitive Distortion

All three clubs currently in title contention show significant multi-referee concentration patterns. But Liverpool’s situation stands apart in both magnitude and timing:

When championships are decided by 1-3 points, concentration patterns creating 25-40% exposure imbalances aren’t statistical curiosities—they’re competitive realities. The question isn’t whether these patterns affect outcomes. The question is whether a fair competition can tolerate such extreme distributional imbalances among title contenders.

The MW21 Assignment Choices: What Was Possible

PGMOL had multiple options for the Arsenal-Liverpool fixture. The assignment of Anthony Taylor—bringing him to 4× with Liverpool and 3× with Arsenal—was one choice among several. Consider the alternatives:

The same matchweek features nine other fixtures with varied concentration patterns. Some perfectly balanced (Darren England with Bournemouth 1×, Tottenham 1×). Some moderately elevated (Peter Bankes with Fulham 2×, Chelsea 2×). And one—Arsenal vs Liverpool—assigned to create simultaneous 4× with one contender and 3× with the other. Every assignment represents a choice. The patterns reveal priorities.

The VAR Dimension: Stuart Attwell and the Chelsea Extreme

While main referee concentrations dominate headlines, the VAR matrix continues its own pattern of extreme concentrations. Craig Pawson remains at 6× with Chelsea (31.6% of their fixtures, the highest single VAR-club concentration in the league). Stuart Attwell reaches 4× with Everton in MW21. The VAR crisis parallels the main referee crisis—but receives fraction of the scrutiny.

VAR officials make match-defining decisions. Offside lines, handball interpretations, clear-and-obvious thresholds—all subject to concentrated exposure patterns. The mathematical problem is identical to the main referee concentration:

Extreme frequency creates pattern recognition, familiarity effects, and unconscious bias risks.

The competitive problem is magnified: VAR interventions directly alter match outcomes in ways crowd atmosphere cannot influence.

The Bankes Anomaly: Still the Only Dual-4× Official

Peter Bankes continues his historic anomaly: the only referee in 2025-26 to reach 4× with two different clubs. Leeds United at 4×. Newcastle United at 4×. Eight encounters split between two clubs, both elevated to Critical concentration. The probability of this occurring by chance: effectively zero.

The Bankes pattern exemplifies systemic assignment failure. Not malice. Not corruption. Simply institutional inability to recognize, acknowledge, or correct extreme concentration patterns once they develop. By MW21, Bankes’ dual-4× status is mathematical certainty. The pattern exists because PGMOL allowed it to exist—through 210 matches, 420 encounters, and 21 matchweeks of assignment decisions.

Beyond Liverpool: The Twenty-Three 3× Combinations

While Liverpool’s dual-4× crisis dominates analysis, the Alert-level landscape encompasses 23 referee-club combinations at 3× encounters or higher. This represents more than triple the expected frequency under random distribution:

These aren’t isolated incidents—they’re systemic patterns. The concentration doesn’t cluster randomly. It concentrates among title contenders (Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City), among struggling clubs (Everton, Leeds, Newcastle), and among specific referee-club pairings with statistically impossible frequency distributions. The question isn’t whether this happens by chance. It doesn’t. The question is why PGMOL’s assignment system produces these patterns—and why institutional responses remain absent.

The Duckybusters Analysis: MW21 in Statistical Context

Our methodology focuses on measurable patterns—”ducks” in the data—rather than conspiracy “ghosts.” At 52.6% through the 2025-26 season, the statistical picture grows more damning:

The MW21 Arsenal-Liverpool assignment crystallises the entire season’s pattern: extreme concentration in maximum-stakes fixtures.

PGMOL of course, had options to create balance. PGMOL had 20 matchweeks to recognize Liverpool’s escalating crisis. PGMOL had data showing Taylor’s Liverpool concentration and Arsenal concentration. The assignment occurred anyway.

These aren’t anecdotal observations—they’re statistical certainties. The current assignment system produces concentration patterns occurring 3-5× more frequently than random distribution predicts. The question isn’t whether these patterns exist. The patterns are mathematically demonstrable. The question is whether PGMOL possesses the institutional capacity to recognize them, the analytical framework to measure them, or the political will to correct them.

Looking Forward: The Final Seventeen Matchweeks

The Premier League enters the final 44.7% of the season with concentration patterns now deeply embedded. Liverpool carries two referees at 4×. Arsenal carries three at 3× (including Taylor fresh from 4× with Liverpool). Manchester City shows emerging dual-3× patterns. Twenty-three combinations sit at Alert-or-Critical levels. The mathematical implications are unforgiving:

Liverpool’s dual-4× status means any Liverpool fixture featuring Kavanagh or Taylor extends already-Critical concentrations. Any fixture with England or Hooper elevates their 3× patterns toward 4×. Any fixture with other referees creates new concentrations while leaving existing crises unresolved. The mathematics of correction grows more impossible with each passing matchweek.

The Arsenal-Liverpool Assignment: Symbolism and Substance

Beyond the numbers, the MW21 Arsenal-Liverpool assignment carries symbolic weight. This is the season’s biggest match to date. Title implications. Global audience. Maximum pressure. And PGMOL assigns a referee who will reach 4× with one competitor and already sits at 3× with the other.

The assignment says: extreme concentration in maximum-stakes fixtures is acceptable. It says: reaching Critical levels with title contenders draws no institutional response. It says: twenty matchweeks of documented patterns produce no corrective intervention. 

The assignment says: this is who we are.

Whether Anthony Taylor’s 4× with Liverpool affects the Arsenal match is unknowable. Whether familiarity creates unconscious pattern recognition is immeasurable. Whether concentration produces bias is unprovable. What is certain: the concentration exists, it’s measurable, it’s extreme, and it occurs in the season’s most consequential match. Fair competition requires not just unbiased referees but balanced assignment distribution. MW21 delivers neither.