Does sacking the manager help clubs or is it all just knee-jerk?

 

 

• The allocation of referees in the Premier League has got out of hand
• Which manager has not been sacked this week?

By Tony Attwood

Chaos, it seems, is the new order.   If you doubt that take a look at the clubs that have changed managers or indeed look at the managerial comings and goings Rúben Amorim, Enzo Maresca, Jamie Collins, Vítor Pereira, Ange Postecoglou, Graham Potter, Nuno Espírito Santo… and I have probably missed a couple along the way.

Caretakers come in, and then another manager and then off we go again.  The simple fact is that changing managers is often not done to make the club better, but because the fans are getting angry and the owner or board can’t think of anything else to do, other than sell the club.   And in the state it has got into, no one wants to buy.  At least not at a price that gets the current owner some of his cash back. 

The simple fact is that most of the time, changing managers doesn’t do much good, and quite often it can make things worse, which is why as Arsenal fans we shuold be quite happy with the current environment.   

Where it does work it can take time – as Arteta showed with two 8th-place finishes.   Imagine if the howls of outrage against that had been taken seriously, Arsenal could have had one of those managers currently in the merrygoround, and been even worse off.

Clubs change managers because by and large the board haven’t got a clue a) what else to do, and b) how likely it is each manager might make a difference.    One can only be delighted that the calls for Arteta to be sacked after two 8th-place finishes, and again after three 2nd-place finishes, were ignored.

In fact, in 2019/20 Arteta’s team came eighth, and in September 2020, Arteta was given a promotion in that his title changed from “head coach” to “first-team manager.”    In 2020/21, Arsenal came eighth again, and the board still stuck by their man and his contract.  In 2021/22, despite calls for faster progress being essential from the media and some fans, Arsenal came fifth and still stayed with their manager.

Meanwhile, using a different model, and quoting the Guardian today, “In Manchester United’s brave new world, coaches are more like Deliveroo drivers: not really responsible for the food, but still to blame if it arrives cold.”   One can only say, thank goodness no one at Arsenal listens to the calls from those who want immediate change.

Now I am rather suspicious of AI, and tend not to repeat its projections, but I did ask AI today to project how many Premier League managers might be sacked this season.   It came back with…

“Based on historic data for sackings by month, Premier League clubs are now on track to set a new record for a single season, surpassing the total of 14 in 2022/23, with a further 12 changes projected at the current rate between now and the end of the campaign.”

I am not sure that projection should be taken seriously, but it does show us how crazy this has got.   If you are a manager of a club not on track for a top four or five finish, and not at Arsenal, you are going to be sacked.

But here is a second bit of information that seems to be missing from this.  (And by second, I mean, a piece of information to be added to our awareness that Arteta took Arsenal to two eighth-placed finishes in his first two campaigns.    The first piece of information is that only four people can be in charge of teams that finish in the top four.

Not going to extremes, we can say with some certainty that the majority of clubs will change their manager each season, and with absolute certainty that only four teams will end up in the top four (although I am not sure that all club chairman and many club supporters accept that final fact).

So to round off my little AI expedition, I asked, “Does changing manager improve the performance of a Premier League club”

The answer was and I quote exactly, “Yes, changing managers often provides a short-term ‘new manager bounce’ in Premier League clubs, leading to immediate performance improvements and more points in the first few games, particularly benefiting struggling teams at the bottom of the table, but this boost isn’t guaranteed and often fades long-term.”

AI concludes, “The positive impact usually wanes after about 5-10 games, with results often reverting to previous levels.”   And it adds “Some studies find no significant long-term benefit, or even negative effects, with success being a lottery.”

So yes, that is AI and thus not always to be trusted, but still an interesting point.   After changing managers, success is something of a lottery.

Another manager Tottenham?.