REF REVIEW 2012: Looking for an independent second source to confirm our findings

19 Replies to “REF REVIEW 2012: Looking for an independent second source to confirm our findings”

1. Yet another excellent piece of work from the team at Untold. Keep up the good work.
   And this work is important not only in terms of removing the institutional bias against Arsenal but also of helping change the mode of football played in England so that we have a better chance of being competitive at international level. Letting the Stokes of this world perpetuate the style of football little changed since the 1950’s is reducing the opportunities for the development of players with the technical skills to compete with the Germans and Spanish. Allowing throwbacks like Pulis and Allardyce to manage at the highest level, likewise.

2. Could you please pass this info on to those morons at the pgmol?
   I think we would all love to hear their response.

3. @Walter Very good comeback on the bias argument. Shame there was so little response from other teams’ refs, but it’s a real statement that the independent stats marry up.

   The biggest problem with them being taken seriously is the can of worms it opens following the Juve situation. If the FA/PGMOL investigate bias, the motives will be prejudged by the public.

   Match-fixing and bribery will be the perceived subject, discounting other psychological influences (conscious or sub-conscious). A simple admission that the stats raise questions may serve as a huge smear on the integrity of the game in England, which has huge financial ripples, locally and globally.

   It’s a big can…

   ArseCheek
   @ArseCheekBlog

4. Great analytical piece of work, Untold. I really hope the good work of your Panel of Referees gets more visible next season and getting endorsement from fans all over the world.
   If it can receive endorsement from fans of most clubs, it can be a reliable reference for check & balance on the performance of Referees.

   PGMOL and their Referees will certainly be more cautious in officiating games and thus will reduce bias officiating. After a while, I believe it will produce a positive impact in the fight against bias refereeing and corrupt practice.

   Keep it going, Untold and I’m sure fair minded Referees would definitely be tempted to join and help out this noble course of yours.

5. I hope that “average bias” you calculated for PL does not include those two teams, as those numbers would distort “the average”. In over words, the average bias for Pl should be calculated on the bases of 18 teams, Stoke and Arsenal excluded.

6. All other parameters (penalties, goals and so on) should also be excluded from calculations.

7. Ive said for a while that match officials are practically condoning violence and your review suggest the same thing!
   Stoke play the intimidation game and one of the rules that match official should enforce is “intent”.
   You will notice that against teams like man u stoke attempt to play football rather than intimidate.Maybe that’s because Pulis is pally pally with Fergie.
   They have a very different approach against Citeh,Liverpool and Arsenal.
   Great series of article from Untold highlighting the problems in the PL.
   With the money awash in the game saying nothing is not an option.
   Uefa and Fifa can see what’s going on and some of our media suggest that the two organisations are corrupt!

8. Nice article again guys! Cannot thank you guys enough for all your hard work, and the hits keep on rolling.

   I am eagerly anticipating the response from the PGMOL and referees during the upcoming season.

9. This is a good summary. What it shows looking at any of the 3 tables is that there isn’t a bias as such twoards ‘big clubs’ with the biggest two clubs (Man Utd and Spurs) featuring high up (6th in the combined), with Liverpool (surprisingly), Chelsea, City and Ourselves in the bottom half of the table. This bucks a lot of the debate on 606 and Talksport last season that the (so called) big clubs get the rub of the green. There’s a message in there to be distributed clearly.

   Now I will bet you (5p tops…I’m not a betting man – lol)that the referees association and similar bodies, if indeed they bother at all, will interpret these results differently to state that there isn’t a bias for the big clubs and the ‘fact’ that there is a number of southern clubs high up (especially in the untold table) shows there isn’t a bias towards the North. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if they used these results (and others carefully selected) to show that ‘actually’ referees are impartial (for good or bad). Why? The way the table falls does look somewhat random and does buck some well known perceptions or mis-held beliefs.

   Notice, I am not in anyway denigrating this work. It is excellent but you can interpret findings in different ways. Just look at politics!

   Also don’t expect the majority to be intersted in the detail, because people (in the main) simply don’t have the patience to read/listen to reasoned argument backed with facts. This is geeky stuff 🙂 It is all about the management summary, kpi’s and the key take aways so to speak.

   You need a spin doctor on this material. It is a real skill. Personally I wouldn’t concentrate upon the ‘bias against Arsenal’ message. I would let others ‘discover’ that for themselves. I would instead concentrate on the ‘aren’t our referees poor ‘ message and I would also accentuate positive messages in the findings. There must be some! As an example, is there one or two referees that can be called out as good examples? Are there any urban-myths about referees that this data contradicts?

   This will be a dirty war don’t expect peole to listen or to take notice especially if you are calling them out for poor performance or indeed for the more emotional aspect of demonstrating a bias against one club in particular.

   I love geeky stuff and these series of articles are excellent.

10. Interesting. I know the author of thefootballisfixed.com blog regularly referred to Arsenal having what he referred to I think as a “refereeing bias index” amongst the worst of any major team in Europe, making it in effect impossible for us to win major trophies. I do not know much about this guy, but I can tell you some of his info seems to confirm what you have found on here. He also talks about some refs being in the hands of managers, agents, in one case, a Russian bookmaker and pretty much summizes the whole thing is corrupt. I do not agree with everything he used to write but http://footballisfixed.blogspot.co.uk/ archives are an interesting read. Strange how the same refs come up time and time again, as does the helping hand in the direction of Utd.

11. Gooner S,

    I think you make some good points. And some of your points could be answered if we would have (had) the resources to review all the games.
    I think that is the big job that is now in front of us… if only we would be able to get access to all the games and have enough people to review it.

    Dream dream dream….

12. Walter & the team, your work is phenomenal but there are 2 big issues that remain unadressed here:

    1)Is it possible to have your work reviewed by professional or university level statisticians who could pass this information through a computer statistics review, thus solidifying your conclusions?

    2)How do you get this research and other sources’ conclusions into the hands of those who can start to confront the PGMOL, the EPL and the FA? Who has the power to make changes and apply sanctions other than FIFA and EUFA, both of whom are so corrupt that they’ll never transgress on British territory?

    The Italian government had the courage to face down the big 4 teams in Italy but the UK government are not likely to ever support such a move. Maybe with the Olympics going on, it isn’t the ideal time to take this to the Sports Minister but perhaps after they are over but before the season starts?

13. Dom,
    I’m in accord. Indeed, it further beg a set of questions that’s closer to home:
    Why doesn’t someone at AFC take this on and
    bring it up – whether quietly or loudly, in several venues – Gazidis at FA? Someone to the Sports Minister? in a legal brief?
    Will there be a scintilla of evidence that it’s been noticed at AFC? Perhaps Arsene will use a sly turn of phrase that cues us in that he’s taken note? Hmmmm……?

14. Walter, Dogface,
    To Dom’s first point:
    Perhaps a call for a university partner – a known impartial entity with excellent credentials – who wants to see fairness on the pitch and is willing to endure the shite storm for having helped. This needs to be carefully handled because anyone could come forth and claim anything. Anyway, such participation could add the political ooommmph and cover that Gooner S has advised.

15. Excellent article. Not too surprised that the results from 2 seperate studies would correlate so closely. As to the difference between Stoke and The Arsenal, could it be that the former is considered to be a real ‘English’ team, whilst the latter is too ‘Foreign’? I mean, I think we all agree there must be a reason? Maybe it is one that is subconscious when it comes to refs making decisions? The refs are all English, brought up on the English game, so would/could it not follow that they then have a natural bias for those who play the traditional ‘English’ game as opposed to those who play a more ‘Continental’ style?

    I wonder is there any way of translating these findings in a way that would reflect league points and maybe position? I do not simply mean add the lost 11 points (Arsenal) and therefore increase league points correspondingly but also remove the same points that were mistakenly given to our opponents?

    In as much as this would then reinforce our finishing 3rd, what would it do to Utd/City? City won on goal difference but going by these results they had -4 netpoints stolen from what should have been their total, which at first glance gives them the titls by 1 point as Utd had -3 net points. But what if it was City who profited from Utd’s losing of 3 points? Would that not then mean they finish 2 points above City? Confusing I know but bloody interesting all the same.

    Excellent article well done!!

16. Bob,
    I recently wrote to the Department for Culture, Media and Sport in the UK to ask if they will be looking deeply into corruption & bias in the premier league as found by a recent study.

    A reply is due within 3 weeks now 🙂

17. Stuart,
    Did you make a detailed case for your request? What points did you make?

18. Bob,
    I made a general enquiry to ask if following the recent publication of data regarding referees performance, would there be an investigation into the possiblity of bias and / or corruption in the Premier league and addressing ways to ensure it does not happen.

    Nothing too elaborate, I’m waiting to see if I get a response, hopefully asking for further clarification on what I mean.

    We’ll see

19. I also mentioned that the data displayed some strange trends depending on who was playing and reffing