By Tony Attwood
- Destroyed by injuries? How does Arsenal really compare to the rest of the PL this campaign?
- Does form tell us anything? Yes but probably not what you thought…
Way way back on 12 November we ran the story with the headline “Lower points than last season? In fact Arsenal are actually doing just as well” in which took a look at what the fixture arrangements had done to Arsenal, pointing out in this and one or two subsequent articles that Arsenal had had the toughest possible away set of fixtures from the start of the season.
For as we pointed out Arsenal had played, away from home, Aston Villa, Tottenham Hots, Manchester City, AFC Bournemouth, Newcastle United and Chelsea.
Now I know that since we wrote that some of those teams have been falling by the wayside but the issue was of course where that team was at the moment the match was played – and indeed for matches near the start of the season, where the team had finished in term of their home games the previous season.
And our point was simple: Arsenal were facing teams that were used to winning at home, one game after another, and were not playing any of the teams that had less favourable home records. So Arsnenal struggled with some of these games, and morale sank. Add to that a much higher injury level than either of the last two seasons and Arsenal’s poorer than expected showing was explained. Nothing much to do with Edu’s resignation or Arteta’s sudden loss of ability – it was a very biased set of fixtures, and injuries.
Such intricate bits of factual analysis are of course generally beyond the media in the UK but they are not averse to picking up ideas once they have been raised elsewhere, and today we find the Telegraph running the headline “Arsenal’s title race is not over – the next 11 games are a huge opportunity. Easing of the fixture schedule and return of key players suggest Mikel Arteta’s side can make inroads into Liverpool’s lead”
Of course it could well be that Untold Arsenal happened upon the fact that Arsenal have had a really grotty run of away fixtures on 12 November, and then on 22 November the Telegraph quite independently discovered the same thing. I’m sure they wouldn’t want to lower themselves to read our little bit of research. But whatever the route, it is good to know they got there in the end.
What they now say is that “there are numerous reasons to believe that they [Arsenal] are now through the muddiest, clumpiest part of their campaign,” and they are not talking about a failure of undersoil heating.
For they add, “On paper at least. Arsenal’s fixture list becomes easier, their captain has returned to full fitness and the travel demands are about to be drastically reduced.
“Rival fans will scoff at the suggestion that Arsenal have had a tough start to this campaign but it is demonstrably the case that their fixtures have been more difficult than those of Liverpool and Manchester City.”
What they might have said of course is “Newspapers will of course ignore the suggestion that Arsenal have had a tough start to this campaign” but that is exactly what they did. Of course they might have said, “As Untold Arsenal was pointing out 10 days ago…” but they didn’t.
But now they have woken up and said, “In their first 11 games, Arsenal met the other six teams who finished in the top seven last season. Not only that, they have faced five of them – Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur, City, Newcastle United and Chelsea – away from home. Liverpool and City, by contrast, have faced only three of last season’s top seven.
“In those five away matches, Arsenal have taken eight points. In the same five games last season, they took five.”
Of course the whole article isn’t a piece that Untold ran before because they now add, that Arsenal’s up coming games “take them outside of London just once – a trip to Brighton,..”
And yes let’s be fair, they have now, finally, gone further than Untold saying, “Over the next 11 games, Arsenal will have to travel a total of only 128 miles. In their first 11 games, they travelled 715 miles. Also, they will have only one European away game in this period – against Sporting Lisbon – compared to two trips to Italy (and a League Cup game at Preston) in the first part of the campaign.”
Oh yes and they also do a bit of recognising that the injury crisis has slipped away too, running our list of injured players which has a few similar points to our piece Destroyed by injuries? How does Arsenal really compare to the rest of the PL this campaign? noting that ” Arsenal players have missed a cumulative 49 matches. In the first 11 games of last season, that figure stood at just 28.”
The piece adds with a note that you can “join the conversation” on the Telegraph, and of course you can, although I think we have had a little conversation of our own on these topics. But still, it is good to know that if you miss an article on Untold, you can always pick it up a few days later in the Telegraph.
What a load of tripe.
Ah the return of Mr Banks with his erudition and deep insight into other people’s work