So what is wrong with PL refs: case study – Dowd

by Walter Broeckx

Next in our series is a ref we will see very soon at the Emirates. Famous for the, well, famous game at Newcastle and probably the reason why most Gooners have the “oh no” reaction when they hear that Dowd is the ref.

But is this sentiment a sentiment that is backed up by the numbers? We will find out in this article.

First for the new readers a little explanation. We took the numbers of all the games each ref did (you can find the other refs on this site but we publish in alphabetical order so still at the start) and then had a look at how each team did in general and compared this with each ref.

So if you want to see how two teams do with a certain ref you can check it out here. This could come handy when you want to bet some money. But I must warn you this is no guarantee of course. The past can tell us some things but on the day some surprises may arise in each game.

Now we took the general result and compared this with the results under the ref. For Arsenal you will see that we have a win percentage in general of 53,45% and when we look at the win percentage of Dowd we see this is 57,69%. So despite one specific game there is a slightly better than average figure with Dowd, but still close to average so we call him an average ref. This is not about his decision making on the field.

So here is the table from Dowd with the teams in the PL

	Total	won	draw	lost	won	draw	lost	Achieving
Arsenal	797	426	212	159	53,45%	26,60%	19,95%
Dowd	26	15	8	3	57,69%	30,77%	11,54%	Average
Aston Villa	797	287	249	261	36,01%	31,24%	32,75%
Dowd	25	8	6	11	32,00%	24,00%	44,00%	Average
Chelsea	797	414	206	177	51,94%	25,85%	22,21%
Dowd	33	21	5	7	63,64%	15,15%	21,21%	Over
Everton	797	282	230	285	35,38%	28,86%	35,76%
Dowd	35	14	9	12	40,00%	25,71%	34,29%	Average
Fulham	443	137	128	178	30,93%	28,89%	40,18%
Dowd	26	10	7	9	38,46%	26,92%	34,62%	Over
Liverpool	797	389	203	205	48,81%	25,47%	25,72%
Dowd	39	17	11	11	43,59%	28,21%	28,21%	Average
Man City	607	226	159	222	37,23%	26,19%	36,57%
Dowd	29	9	8	12	31,03%	27,59%	41,38%	Average
MU	797	520	165	112	65,24%	20,70%	14,05%
Dowd	28	16	4	8	57,14%	14,29%	28,57%	Average
Newcastle	717	284	192	241	39,61%	26,78%	33,61%
Dowd	24	9	5	10	37,50%	20,83%	41,67%	Average
Norwich	227	68	72	87	29,96%	31,72%	38,33%
Dowd	7	2	2	3	28,57%	28,57%	42,86%	Average
QPR	227	71	57	99	31,28%	25,11%	43,61%
Dowd	11	2	3	6	18,18%	27,27%	54,55%	Under
Reading	101	31	21	49	30,69%	20,79%	48,51%
Dowd	6	3	0	3	50,00%	0,00%	50,00%	Over
Southampton	531	155	146	230	29,19%	27,50%	43,31%
Dowd	13	1	8	4	7,69%	61,54%	30,77%	Under
Stoke	177	53	54	70	29,94%	30,51%	39,55%
Dowd	no games
Sunderland	443	119	112	212	26,86%	25,28%	47,86%
Dowd	27	3	6	18	11,11%	22,22%	66,67%	Under
Swansea	63	20	21	22	31,75%	33,33%	34,92%
Dowd	9	3	5	1	33,33%	55,56%	11,11%	Average
Tottenham	797	307	210	280	38,52%	26,35%	35,13%
Dowd	32	19	7	6	59,38%	21,88%	18,75%	Over
WBA	253	62	64	127	24,51%	25,30%	50,20%
Dowd	14	6	4	4	42,86%	28,57%	28,57%	Over
West Ham	641	210	164	267	32,76%	25,59%	41,65%
Dowd	22	6	4	12	27,27%	18,18%	54,55%	Average
Wigan	291	81	73	137	27,84%	25,09%	47,08%
Dowd	23	8	9	6	34,78%	39,13%	26,09%	Average

If we want to put the teams in categories we see that the teams who in general do better than their average win percentage we see that Chelsea is among them as is Fulham. He likes that part of London maybe?

Another team doing extremely well is Reading.  Other extremely over achievers when Dowd is around are Tottenham and WBA.

The teams who perform at their average are Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United, Norwich, Newcastle, Swansea, West Ham and Wigan. That is 11 teams who do pretty much their average with Dowd.

As you can see Newcastle is among them. I do think that that infamous game had not that much to do with Dowd liking Newcastle in particular but the fact that Arsenal had been naughty the game before and had to be punished by the referees for being bad boys against Everton.

I also point at the fact that Dowd is one of the few refs under whom Manchester United have a lower win percentage than in general. So the point raised by one commenter from a Manchester Utd supporters website about Dowd is not that far fetched I think. Dowd sometimes likes to behave like an elephant in a glass shop.  And at his age with his status he can do more than others.

I’m more worried about the overachieving numbers of Tottenham and Chelsea in this table. As they are our rivals and could benefit from overachieving under Dowd. A bit a scary thought isn’t it?

But with 5 overachieving teams, with 11 average performing teams we still have some 3 underachievers. Stoke is not in this table as Dowd is from Stoke and hence doesn’t do them in the PL. Exceptions are presumably only made for Manchester born referees. They can do Manchester games. Refs from Stoke cannot do Stoke games. Oh well. Mike will know why.

QPR, Southampton and Sunderland are in general the teams who shiver when his name comes out of Mike Rileys hat when he picks the referees in random order for the PL games. I hope you don’t take this hat thing serious of course. But they have a terrible record that is no joke.

So want to make a bet in a game when Dowd is the ref? Just check our numbers and see what his record is with these teams. You might one day find a good gamble. If you do so, just buy me a drink next time I come to the Emirates.

Recent posts…

• Deducting points, a coin throwing player, and premeditated crime by a corrupt system
• Match Review: Howard Webb – West Bromwich Albion Vs Arsenal (1 – 2) [06/04/2013]
• Calciopoli – Can corruption happen in the PL? – Part 3
• Why Arsenal fans should applaud Manchester United’s title winning side on Sunday

• Calciopoli – Can it happen in the PL? – Part 2
• Calciopoli – Could it happen in the Premier League? – Part 1

The referee analysis

The full index of articles in order of publication is now available here.

The books…

• Woolwich Arsenal: The club that changed football – Arsenal’s early years
• Making the Arsenal – how the modern Arsenal was born in 1910
• The Crowd at Woolwich Arsenal FC: crowd behaviour at the early matches