Man City v Arsenal, the match preview, the odds, and the analysis of hindsight

Posted on by Tony Attwood

By Bulldog Drummond.

“Let’s go back to the start of this season,” said Mr Wenger. “Predictions were: number one Chelsea will win it again. Number two, Man City. In the end any pundit who would have predicted Leicester would have met the response: ‘Stop your job and do something else’. And that is what can happen again.

“First of all every English team can buy players,” he said. “And the difference in the market between those who are just a fraction better and the players who will go to lower clubs can be made up with a bit more spirit and a bit more fighting, a bit more support and a bit less expectation.”

It is an interesting perspective and as the last article showed, sacking a manager and getting another one in is certainly not guaranteed as a way of making things better in a club – although it is a way of spending a lot of money.

But there’s one thing I would pick Mr Wenger up on, if I may be so bold.   Yes, of course, “every English team can buy players” because of the new money coming in from broadcasters – but that doesn’t mean that the clubs will end up with more money.   The money will continue to pour out into the hands of the players.  A player that would have cost £20 million in transfer fees and £5 million a year in salary will now cost £35 million in transfer fees and £7.5 million a year in salary.

The change just makes it more likely that players who quite like England, don’t mind the difference in refereeing between the Premier League and the Spanish League (for example), and don’t mind the fact that this season alone over half the clubs in the Premier League have had fans baying for the blood of the manager (seven were sacked and another five at least were demanding managerial change), will fancy their chances.

Indeed it is interesting to ponder the fact that although Tottenham supporters are getting ready for the biggest party of their lives (in the hope that they will finally get to be above Arsenal in the league for the first time since 1995) are also still moaning about dropping two points against our 10 man team at WHL, losing to us in the league cup at home, losing to the State Aiders in March, and throwing away leads against WBA and Chelsea.

As for today, I imagine Welbeck will start, and maybe we could use the reverse trick of Giroud on the bench and then having both of them on the pitch towards the end if we are playing catch up.

ManCityvArsenal

Elsewhere we are told in an exclusive in the Telegraph that “Jack Wilshere to be named in Roy Hodgson’s 23-man England squad for Euro 2016” which could be a prelude to him being in the starting line up.

I am sure Man C must be aware that Arsenal can change tactics, despite all the propaganda to suggest otherwise – as we saw last year with the 0-2 away victory and another one of those stadia that us British tax payers helped to finance.

Man City are suffering a little with injuries with Silva, Zabaleta, Kolarov and Kompany all on the sick bed.  According to the Physioroom chart we’ve lost Mertesacker with a hamstring and of course the Ox who is going to be out through the summer.

This brings us to…

Welbeck

Iwobi Ozil Alexis

Wilshere Coquelin

Monreal Koscielny Gabriel Bellerin

Cech

 

On the beach we could well see seven of these eight: Ospina, Chambers, Gibbs, Ramsey, Elneny, Cazorla, Campbell, Giroud.   And you’ll see I’ve dropped Walcott – not because I have the same negative views as some do, but rather because we can only have seven on the beach, and this is getting a big complicated.   On the other hand Theo has scored three goals in his last two Premier League appearances against Manchester City, so maybe he should be there.  I can’t see him replacing Alexis or Iwobi at the moment.

Arsenal have drawn three and won three of the last six, while Man City have won four and drawn one of the last six, losing the other.

In the fair play league Man City are by no means the worse offenders (remembering in this league the most peace loving team is at the foot of the table)…

# TEAM GAMES CAUTIONS  DISMISSALS  DISCIPLINARY PTS
1 Aston Villa 43 81 3 356
2 Watford 41 77 4 354
3 West Bromwich Albion 44 75 3 334
4 Liverpool!!! 45 70 3 310
5 Chelsea 42 62 5 298
6 Tiny Totts 41 74 0 296
7 Newcastle United 40 63 4 294
8 Norwich City 40 65 3 292
9 Crystal Palace 45 67 2 290
10 Manchester United 44 69 1 286
11 State Aid United 43 62 6 282
12 Stoke City 45 58 5 276
13 Manchester City 45 69 0 276
14 Southampton 40 55 6 272
15 Everton 47 51 6 268
16 Sunderland 39 61 2 264
17 Leicester City 42 57 3 258
18 Swansea City 40 64 1 256
19 AFC Bournemouth 43 58 1 242
20 Arsenal 43 50 4 230
  • Caution 4 pts
  • Denial of a goal scoring opportunity or dismissal for 2 cautions 10 pts
  • Violent conduct, serious foul play, spitting or offensive and abusive language 12 pts

So not a necessarily violent game then.

Whoscored.com has its usual analysis of the players of each side, and it is interesting if one considers their top five positions overall, and the relative amounts of money available to each club:

R Player Apps Goals Assists MotM Rating
1 Alexis Sánchez Arsenal,  26(2) 12 4 6 7.69
2 Mesut Özil Arsenal,  34 6 18 6 7.65
3 Santi Cazorla Arsenal,  14 – 3 1 7.52
4 Nicolás Otamendi Manchester City,  28 1 – 4 7.48
5 Laurent Koscielny Arsenal,  31 4 – 3 7.46

Now on this basis, Santi Cazorla should be in the team, although quite how that works I am not sure – I don’t think I would want to put Santi and Jack next to each other unless they had been practising together for weeks.   But it does give an indication as to what happened once he was injured.

Certainly when we look at the comparative passing levels of the team, we find that although Mesut Özil is still nicking a living at the top of the table, the next four passing players in the chart are all Man City.

Now WhoScored has gone for a 1-0 victory to Arsenal, perhaps on the basis that a lot was taken out of Man City in the Champions League games, and their manager is now leaving (another downside to changing managers too often).

They seem particularly taken by the fact that Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in five of their last seven matches in the Premier League, and the last four league games have all had two or fewer goals in them.

There’s also the fact that Arsenal are undefeated in the last eight in the Premier League, and have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches against Man City in all competitions, being undefeated in the last five matches against Man C in all competitions.   Goodness, it only seems last week that everyone was saying that Arsenal’s failure was that it couldn’t beat any of the top four teams.

But let us not forget that Man City are playing for a place in the Champs League next season, and their new manager would be rather miffed if he found himself taking on his next “Big Challenge” (its official, so we have to put it in inverted commas) by entering the Europa League.

We, of course, want to be in the Champs for the 863rd year in succession, although I may have miscounted somewhere along the line.  We’ll know by kick off if coming second is still a possibility – here is the table before the Tiny Totts throw their toys around…

POS CLUB P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Leicester City 37 23 11 3 67 35 32 80
2 Tottenham Hotspur 36 19 13 4 67 28 39 70
3 Arsenal 36 19 10 7 59 34 25 67
4 Manchester City 36 19 7 10 68 38 30 64
5 Manchester United 36 18 9 9 44 31 13 63

A win for the Tinies means they come second, given that we are unlikely to win our final two games with a 15-0 goal difference or more.  But even if that doesn’t come off, it is worth noting that since 1995, when we came 12th and the Tinies 7th, we’ve had a rather good run, and anyone around in 1995 would most certainly have said, “fine I’ll take that” if offered a run of 1996 to 2015 as the period before the Tinies popped up above us once again, not least because twice in that era Tottenham have visited the giddy depths of 14th.

We just have to keep thinking about ourselves and no goals against in each of the last three matches and what we did to Man C at the Ems.  And the fact that a win gives us third place, and no pre-season play offs.

Manuel Pellegrini was particularly interesting this week, saying, “For me, the second season was the worst – if we can finish in third in this third season it wouldn’t be extraordinary but still a good season.”  How different is his vision, with an infinite amount of money, compared with Arsenal’s.

The BBC, unlike Whoscored however, go for a 2-1 Man C win despite noting that Manchester City have already lost five league games at home this season – as many as they had lost in their previous four league campaigns combined.

Also there is the fact that Man City have only won one of their 13 matches against the current top eight in the Premier League this season, losing nine and drawing three.

The Sports Analytics Machine super-computer created by Professor Ian McHale at the University of Salford in order to predict football matches goes for 1-1.

Please do take a moment to read bettingexpert’s comprehensive Paddy Power review as they have kindly supported us with this article this week.

Please note our new rules on commentary noted at the end of the last article.

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116 Replies to “Man City v Arsenal, the match preview, the odds, and the analysis of hindsight”

  1. I think it is an intriguing game and very difficult to predict the outcome.

    As to our the game will play out? who knows.

    For once, I will be watching the rottingham game with more than a general interest in the result. Hoping they lose being the one norm of desire for them from me.

  2. off topic :

    watching motd 2 , they are saying the passion that spurs players showed against chelsea was refreshing and honest ……….. words fail me

  3. It’s also The Golden Glove Showdown.

    Petr Čech has picked 15 so far as well as Joe Hart of City has.

  4. Jake – refreshing & honest!! the idiots that I pay for on the BBC are truly an embarasssment.

  7. yup totally agree i wish tv licence was optional when you listen to the drivel the bbc sports commenters come out with.

    ps amy lawrence was involved , they must be given a script to follow

  8. BBC football does indeed give the BBC a bad name. But some of their output is truly outstanding. They really need to realise the damage their football coverage is doing to their PR operation to maintain their income.

  9. Spot on Tony. There are some awesome productions by the beeb. Sadly the sports side just does not hold up to the standard.

    The Spuds v Saints is just showing how poor officiating is. Pull backs, kicks, pushes & holding all being allowed to go card free.

  10. Spuds are very dirty players, watching Tot v Sou game.

    And the ref either ignores them or prefers not to see them. Falling on peoples legs, or full on their back, elbows in nearly every challenge, pulling people back from close up, the list goes on.

    Heard their manager as player got 15 red cards but that probably has nothing to do with it. 🙂

  11. watching the spuds game…ref inventing fouls to pull back Southampton.

  12. Come on the Sotonists! Oh come ye St.Totteringham this is our hour of need.Silence the Coop and those pesky Chickens!

  13. Bulldog, your starts aren’t bad. But I doubt if the Boss will start Wilshere in place of the rampaging but erratic Ramsey who can track back to defend. Because of his yet to be fully strong feet, I think the Boss should bring on Wilshere into the match with 15 minutes to the end.

    On to finish 2nd in the table above Spurs, it 1-1 after 68 minutes of play. If it stays that way to the end, it’s a good result for Arsenal provided we beat Man City. Still hoping the Saints will deny the Lillywhites getting anything out of this match.

  20. This is becoming interesting as the Saint’s Tottenringham’s Day has taken over control of the proceedings at White Hart Lane with Davis putting the Saints into the lead in the game with only 2′ to end barring the added time.

    COYG! Beat the Citizens and run away with all the 3 points.

  25. is there now something like spuds time? I see already 7 mins extra time?

  26. Uncross those fingers Jake. The curse of St Tot is working in our favour. Last Tiny game is against Newcastle.

    Sky just said, “What a tough week this has been for Potch and Spurs”. Rubbish. They are blowing it.

  27. Have we heard any word sounding like bottle or choke with regards to tynies?????….

  28. Arsenal

    Arsenal starting XI: Cech, Bellerin, Gabriel, Koscielny, Monreal, Elneny, Ramsey, Welbeck, Iwobi, Alexis, Giroud

    On the beach

    Ospina, Gibbs, Coquelin, Wilshere, Cazorla, Campbell, Walcott

    I’m giving Bulldog the sack

  34. Reporting widespread now that Ozil is out. Tack-tickle? No. A body blow. Urggggh!

  36. Would be nice to see Santi on today and fry Citeh up with his skills.
    COYG!

  39. Ozil out….its not tactical…. Its character building. Come on Iwobi.

  40. Bulldog, I’ve seen the Boss’s starts who are a bit different from yours. No chance has been given to Walcott to lead the line for the Gunners for a change in this match to see. But Welbeck is being started and Ozil is completely no where to be seen in the Boss’s 18 man squad for this match.

    I hope Ozil is well. But who takes over his position? Ramsey or Iwobi? I think it will be Iwobi. Giroud leads the line and Welbeck manns the mid-left or mid-right depending which of the mids Alexis is manning.

  41. Wenger confirmed that Ozil picked up a minor injury in training but that it should be just a few days before he is ready again.

    Tell you what though, it is one hell of a bench

  42. We’ve got two hips …here’s hoorah. That’s three cheers for St Totteringham.

  48. St.Totteringham, we call upon thee again! COME ON YOU GUNNERS!!!

  50. Girouuuuuuuu…. Yyyeeeeaaahhhhh
    Yyyeeeeaaahhhhh
    Yyyyuuueeeeerrraaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh

  51. Geeeeeeeeetttt iiinnnnnnnn thhhhhhhhhheerree!!! Thanks St.Totteringham!!

  57. Local lad Taylor turns good for City. What a cheating bunch in charge of football in England.

  64. Sanchez has been anonymous so far in this match. The Boss shouldn’t be shy to change him with Campbell early into the 2nd half. We must win this match otherwise the Spurs lose to the Saints will be a waste.

  67. It was pressure from Welbeck which caused panic in the city defence, nearly an own goal, followed by a free run from a corner for AFCs big lump. heh.
    If anyone panicked in that half…

    City in their last significant match under the greatest manager in their recent history hard not to imagine their crowd and players not being ‘up fer it’. Interesting match. Apart from DW *weeps*

    Arsenal doing well all things considered (great goal from a great opponent, great loss of a great English teammate).

  68. No yellow for Mangala from Apprentice Taylor there. Of course not.

  77. We don’t deserve to lose, this City side isn’t that good although I can’t see us scoring.

  87. Nice goal from Alexis, come on Theo grab a goal mate!
    COYG!!!!!!

  88. Alexis!!!!! That’s what football should be about, absolutely beautiful. What a flick from Giroud.

  89. Card card card card….what!!! No card for persistent fouling!!!

  90. No protection for Wilshere.
    No protection for Alexis.

    How did Welbeck pick up his original injury.

    Protection for KDB there! Hehe. Gabriel learning his lesson.

  91. You couldn’t have guessed it….

    Gabriel first to get yellow. Could you

  93. Niall Quinn the idjut spouting rubbish. Never heard such biased comments.

    Off side not given for the free kick.

  96. Yaya is here…..this is the perfect time to score .

    Come on gunners

  97. Monreal charms his way out of the Apprentice’s book. He must’ve been paying attention to Arteta when they played together.

  104. Oh look the cards are coming up. I bet no one predicted that in a ref preview for this match and official?

  110. Well played lads, lots of effort and we could have pipped it. Still, i can’t favour defending for so long though as it usually ends in a goal against. The ref was not very consistent, but we do expect that anyway.

    I like to see changes made when needed depending on the game, but sad for Danny, guess he won’t be going to Euros. Hope it’s not that serious and he’s ready for season begin. 🙂

    Players should realise that the position is not theirs, it is shared by the two or even three players that can play there, and that they can be changed anytime. They should help one another to be as good as each other, for the team.

  111. Tony Attwood
    May 8, 2016 at 3:31 pm

    Shhhhhhhhhhhh! Someone may hear you.

  112. Even if Arsenal had beaten Man City which the ought to. Spurs finishing above Arsenal for the 1st time in 19 years is still in their hands.

    But Spurs may not win the match at Saints James Park against Newcastle on the final day of the season. Moreso if the match turnout to be the mother of relagation battles for Newcastle.

    Walcott is the cause for Arsenal not beating Man City today at the Etihad. He lacked the ambition to continually pressed to score or caused a goal to be scored. Since he missed that chip over Joe Hart and misplaced a pass to Giroud, he just resigned lackadasically in the game instead of him to continue to high pressing the City defence-line. The Boss too should have signaled to him from the touch-line to keep pressing for the winner.

  113. I’m just curious as to why Menace is able to get away with calling someone a faggot? Or telling someone to go walk into the middle of a busy motorway?

  114. I thought this site was against insults?surely calling someone’s sexuality isn’t allowed and surely isn’t tolerated.

  115. Nick – the site is against insults, and a lot of other things. But it is run by people who give up their free time of their own free will to keep the site going, and we can’t be here all the time. As you will see on the site, we do ask that if you spot anything that is against the nature of Untold and its proclaimed values you write to TonyAttwoodofLondon@gmail.com with the name of the person, the date and the time, and I will take action.

  116. I understand and really do appreciate the amount of effort that gets put into this site, but usually newer posters seem to have their posts removed almost instantly, whereas because Menace is a regular he seems to get a free pass with his quite often abusive posts.

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