By Bulldog Drummond
If I may, I shall repeat my conclusion from the last gambling article…
“Up to you of course but I think I’d go for 2-1, with a secondary bet of 2-0 – in both cases an England win.”
My exact words. No editorial fiddling. Straight from the mouth of the horse, as it were.
Now that was hardly a radical left field wild off the wall over the top prediction but it did have one merit. It turned out to be correct. If you would like to know how I got there, in the prediction published before we knew anything about the team other than the obvious, then the article, like all past Untold articles, is still on line.
Gambling on football matches: is there really a way to make it pay? Let’s try with England.
As I pointed out, the simple technique used is one of looking for patterns in the results of the two teams and assuming that the run which produces the latest pattern. In terms of the gambling you could have got 4/1 on this score maybe 9/2 in some places.
The next England game is on Sunday against Panama and we’ll be doing the same thing again but of course one can do it on any game; it just involves looking at most common outcomes for the team, and assuming the run (whatever it is) continues.
Obviously the problem is that every run of results ends sometime or other, for all runs do, but if you had used the idea last season on the issue of the good form at home for Arsenal continuing and the bad form away continuing you would have won a lot more times than you lost.
Next up is Panama, although here we have a slightly harder task as Panama and England have not played each other. But still, predictions are always possible. I’ll return shortly.
Moving on, one other little prediction that could be made is that if one bangs on about a topic often enough eventually one of several things will happen. Either everyone gets bored out of their minds and you drop it, or it comes to pass.
Take for example our complaint over the silly headlines that say, “Arsenal fans in uproar over new transfer”, which turns out to be a story about a vague rumour, followed by five tweets to illustrate Arsenal fans getting angry and threatening to burn their season tickets.
Just looking at the news stories of this morning we find
“‘Very underrated’; Fans of European giants are desperate to sign Celtic star” (
“Revealed: Whopping 92% of Arsenal fans love swoop for £27m-rated international” (Torreira this summer.
Anyway, the news of the day (if only it was half as accurate as Untold’s betting predictions – which I have to say now because my luck probably won’t hold) Arsenal are “in the race” to sign Sampdoria’s Torreira. But then it seems that Napoli and Everton are also there. The Mirror however says Arsenal are out in front.
Also in the Labour leaning workers paper we find that Mr Emery has told Hector Bellerin he is an ‘untouchable’ – presumably that means in terms of his selectability.
But who are the others. Most bets are on Alexandre Lacazette, Granit Xhaka, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Henrikh Mkhitaryan. Not Ozil then.
Anyway elsewhere the news is that we are signing Leno today, and we are told that Emery has not yet decided on the fate of Chambers and Holding. The Evening Standard, continuing the in or out theme, tells us that Lucas Perez and Joel Campbell “are set for the axe”. Personally I’ve always thought corporal punishment of players for not being selected is a bit harsh, but these journalists have exacting standards.
Football London, now firmly entrenched in the notion of putting lists of players together in what might be considered by some mealymouthed folk a pale imitation of our total list of every single player being tipped for a transfer to Arsenal, have come up today with Caglar Soyuncu, Benjamin Pavard, Sevilla’s Clement Lenglet and Mainz’s Abdou Diallo of interest. With a footnote adding “Reports in Germany also suggest that Lukas Klostermann of RB Leipzig is also a target.”
And fair play to them because three of those names are new – and will be added to our data shortly, with Football London full acknowledged as the source.
Just for the record when the window falls silent.
- Why is VAR being criticised so thoroughly, but the lack of FA refs not being mentioned?
- Powered by fantasy: the media’s list of 95 players Arsenal are going to sign.
- First three transfers sorted? Ex-player banned from ground, keeper not coming? Keeper going!
- Gambling on football matches: is there really a way to make it pay? Let’s try with England.
Sadly my bet on 1-1 was scuppered at the death……………….having said that, if Lingard had played with his eyes open that bet would have been dead after five minutes!
Yes, the UA has forecasted the result of the match correctly. Kudos to Mr Attwood. But I think the Tunisian player was careless to have played dangerously on the ball in the corner arc to allowed England have a corner kick far into the added time instead of him to clear the ball out as the Tunisians were doing in the game to greater success until Harry Kane punished them for that player last gasp lackadaisical defending with a free headed goal winner for England at the death. Hmmm. Just a minute, had the 3Lions ever lost a football match to a senior African team side? So, the next time any African team meet England in this World Cup in Russia, it should have this England’s none losing superiority in mind and try to put a stop to it.
Will Arsenal sign Lenon, the Leverkusen goalkeeper this summer? I’ve read some rumours in the media this summer window that makes the signings of some players by Arsenal this summer looks imminent like those of Papastathopoulos and Torreira. But no signing of any of these 2 players has taken place by Arsenal so far this summer. Or am I the one that is being impatient? Okay, I’ll be patient and wait. But if I may ask further, have Arsenal abandoned their pursuits of David Luiz, Fellaini and Aleksandr Golovin if at all they are pursuing any of them. But I think the media rumour of their pursuit of David Luiz is very strong to ignore. Let’s hope Arsenal will do the signing and extend Jack Wilshere’s deal at the club too before it runs out. And let Wilshere too play ball with Arsenal on this matter to reach amicable understanding acceptable to both parties to stay at Arsenal. Let the Gunners not be looking at the £350k.k/w wage of Mesut Ozil to start playing hard ball on their contract deals negotiation with the club. For, with that huge £350k/w wage Monsieur Wenger, the former Gunners boss gave Ozil has put him on the rope. For if he fails to deliver special leadership for Arsenal consistently next season that will see the Gunners win the PL Title, what will be the use of him getting the £350k/w wages at Arsenal? I believe they’ll sell him next summer if he fails to perform to match his high wages at Arsenal
So, Wilshere should exercise patient to collect the £110k/w wages plus bonuses that is reported he’s been offered to extend his staying at the club. If he performed better than he did last season, I am sure the club will give him a good wage increase next summer.
I was watching with a Angry Chinamen and an Angry Nigerian, I did quote you on your prediction.
Credit, where credit is due. They got lucky, 2 clear incidents of holding, VAR musref.
Clearly you can see Spurs think this is normal, no appeals.
ES, weave won trophies at our clubs now lets get them for our country, err… sorry what you won?? Stones, Walker, OK, League Cup is a coffee mug, ot a trophy, unless it’s part of a 4/4 haul.