Gambling on football matches: is there really a way to make it pay? Let’s try with England.

By Bulldog Drummond

In the early days of Untold Arsenal we regularly ran a match preview looking at the betting deals on offer and where the best offer was.  But sadly our correspondent moved on, for wholly understandable reasons (and remember, Untold doesn’t pay its writers, so eventually most of us decide they’ve done their duty and had enough).

But in the last couple of years in our Arsenal previews I have added a home / away analysis for the two teams involved and we have of course reported the injuries of each team.

At the same time, working on the Arsenal History Society site, which of course means working with hindsight but (when it comes to the reviews of matches in the early decades of the 20th century as we are at the moment) little other information, we have started to find that there are ways to predict results,

Of course we now do have the benefit of hindsight in reporting on historic matches, but even so, it is interesting to see just how useful those analyses of home/away statistics and injuries are.

But looking into this further I think there are other factors that can help, and most particularly I would cite the run of form.   Now all runs comes to an end, so runs of results do have to be treated with care, but once you have a run of three or four results of a certain type this information can be added to the home/away form and injuries statistics to give a clear indication of what is most likely to happen.

However I do know that the tendency in today’s society to base everything on one example (as in “You said this match would be a draw and Arsenal lost 0-3 therefore your system is rubbish”).  These days one example of now dominates thinking.  But for people with a broader perspective the realisation is always that with gambling the aim must be to win more than you lose, not to win all the time.

Now in venturing down this path I am not going to suggest that you should follow the tips and suggestions that we shall be once again be giving next season on Untold, but rather that you might care to add this information to the other data that you use in placing your bets.   Three variables: home/away data, injuries and a run of results.

So if you were wanting to bet on an England match I would start by looking at the country’s latest results.  Take a look at this

Date Home team Score Away team
14/11/17 England 0 – 0 Brazil
23/03/18 Netherlands 0 – 1 England
27/03/18 England 1 – 1 Italy
02/06/18 England 2 – 1 Nigeria
07/06/18 England 2 – 0 Costa Rica

What we can see is that across five games, largely played at home, England have not scored more than two goals in any of them.   That very simple detail makes me think that England are unlikely to score more than two in their world cup games.

What’s more given that against the tougher opposition of Brazil, Netherlands and Italy England scored 0 or 1 I would say there is a suggestion that this 0 or 1 is more likely to be the England goal tally in forthcoming matches.

OK this is incredibly simple stuff, but it is the sort of simplistic analysis that many people who place bets don’t consider.  Some do of course, but not all.

If we now look at England’s run of results against Tunisia we find this

Date Game Res Score Competition
02 Jun 1990 Tunisia v England D 1-1 International Friendly
15 Jun 1998 England v Tunisia W 2-0 FIFA World Cup

Here again we get nothing with more than two goals, and just a draw and an England win in the WC.

Last option: let’s go back a bit further:

Date Game Res Score Competition
01 Sep 2017 Malta v England W 0-4 FIFA World Cup
04 Sep 2017 England v Slovakia W 2-1 FIFA World Cup
05 Oct 2017 England v Slovenia W 1-0 FIFA World Cup
08 Oct 2017 Lithuania v England W 0-1 FIFA World Cup
10 Nov 2017 England v Germany D 0-0 International Friendly
14 Nov 2017 England v Brazil D 0-0 International Friendly
23 Mar 2018 Netherlands v England W 0-1 International Friendly
27 Mar 2018 England v Italy D 1-1 International Friendly
02 Jun 2018 England v Nigeria W 2-1 International Friendly
07 Jun 2018 England v Costa Rica W 2-0 International Friendly

This time we have gone right back to the last time England got more than two goals in a game.  So now you have the choice with your gambling: the run has to end some time and this could be it, or the run has to end sometime, but the team will be new to Russia, nervous and anxious because of the jumped up way the national media present England as the greatest team in the world and only non-winners because they are forced to play cheating foreigners.

Up to you of course but I think I’d go for 2-1, with a secondary bet of 2-0 – in both cases an England win.

We shall see.



8 Replies to “Gambling on football matches: is there really a way to make it pay? Let’s try with England.”

  1. Isn’t it so refreshing to see the referees worldwide being helped by VAR to get most of their decisions spot on . From what I have seen so far , they seem to be doing a good job.

    I wonder how the referees of PIGMOB would have fared with their alleged perchance of getting 98% of their decisions right ? And their insistence of not requesting nor asking for VAR aid ?

    Anyway , am watching most of the games as the timing is so great for us here. Previously we had to watch it in the wee hours of the morning and go bleary eyed to work!

    And in the jokes section , the following score was noted- Vodka 5 Petrol 0 !

    And with the same Russia Vs Saudi Arabia score as the headline , we have a photo (Meme)of Putin on the phone saying ,” OK , release the players’ families !”

    Dah, its good joke , nyet?

  2. Last week-

    He , consoling her : ” Don’t cry babe , its just a movie..”

    This week –

    She , consoling him : ” Don’t cry babe , its just football!”

  3. Ah actually Betfair asked me to confirm my identity, in line with Gambling Commission rules, unlike PaddyPower, who have disappeared money, and locked me out, similarly to 888,

    But yes, the past results, and patters assist with developing a more accurate algorythm, also team sheets, and referees. The latter two reuwiring you to often rescript acculumlators, with betting Apps often crashing during these late stages, or freezing, with odds being changed when it’s available again.This is a good feature,we could continue.

    This will increase traffic massively, anything against those crooks suits me.

  4. LOL Brick, I missed all the games, the only pub with games locally is my former employer, who has taken to discriminating against me, well the rejected, ambitious, team leader, who I rjected.

    Just caught the game of Portugal v Spain.

    Missed a great game, 51 WC hattricks, 51 Career hattricks, fate converges on him, this is the only thing he’s missing.

    De Gea just pissed off the Captn, and I love it, sends him the wrong way, it was just about a penalty, he added something to make sure it was given, pay attention Danny. Makes it two after Costa has restored parity, with a foul, no question, Pepe, should have ran on, regardless, I’ve done it, blindly chasing the ball with bleary eyes. Fonte just isn’t good enough, take nothing from that finish. Nacho makes ammends, before Cristiano, well he does what he does.

    I love Jose’s comments, this is a player for Special moments.

    Ronaldihno Magician, who njoyed the pectacle more than th applause, Messi is the best bll player, but CR7, I mean he’ll create gene regeneration, just to play on, he wants no dispute.

    In competitive football, he is the best, shame he didn’t get that winning header.

    Spains interplay, they found their rythm. it’ll e interesting, they play group leaders Iran. Portugal will look to make light work of Morocco, and take their man off. Iran will be lookinh to take at least a point and put Spain in peril.

    Oi where is the WC coverage, game and group summary?

    I know, soon I got spare time.

  5. Also the Sun are running a Juventus link, which was already mooted, do you know, if we lose him, then happy days, this is a good Club. 1 4 1, Allegri has good eyes.

    Meanwhile PSG are saying £90m max for Kante, Chelsea will accept, it’s the right move. Exodous, It’s coming, Chelsea is about to be harvested.

    I’ll say thats, Kante, Morata, Hazard, Courtois, which would see Willian go to United, for max whack, direct rival, Jose knows wha he gets, he could then convert him like Valencia. and basically, they would have just Ceasar.

    International relations will see it allowed.

  6. The difference is VAR in the World Cup is manned by neutral officials ie not the same country as the officials in the middle of the field. Here the PGMOL will want their own select blind watching VAR so that nothing is honest apart from their select results.

  7. It’s the Final and there’s an empty seat between two elderly gents in the expensive part of the stadium. ‘Shame that seat is empty wonder whose it is?’ said one to the other. ‘It’s my wife’s’ said the gent ‘but she died so can’t make it’. ‘So sorry to hear that. Couldn’t you get someone in the family or a friend to use it for this match?’.

    ‘I couldn’t. They’re all attending the funeral!’.

  8. As for betting on football, the most effective bet is 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 to the team you fancy. The thing to remember is that money bet is money lost. It is only won when you spend it rather than think you will keep it. Gambling always pulls you in for another bet.

    I tend to bet £2 on the team I want to lose. It means I win money or I win joy.

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