By Bulldog Drummond
In the early days of Untold Arsenal we regularly ran a match preview looking at the betting deals on offer and where the best offer was. But sadly our correspondent moved on, for wholly understandable reasons (and remember, Untold doesn’t pay its writers, so eventually most of us decide they’ve done their duty and had enough).
But in the last couple of years in our Arsenal previews I have added a home / away analysis for the two teams involved and we have of course reported the injuries of each team.
At the same time, working on the Arsenal History Society site, which of course means working with hindsight but (when it comes to the reviews of matches in the early decades of the 20th century as we are at the moment) little other information, we have started to find that there are ways to predict results,
Of course we now do have the benefit of hindsight in reporting on historic matches, but even so, it is interesting to see just how useful those analyses of home/away statistics and injuries are.
But looking into this further I think there are other factors that can help, and most particularly I would cite the run of form. Now all runs comes to an end, so runs of results do have to be treated with care, but once you have a run of three or four results of a certain type this information can be added to the home/away form and injuries statistics to give a clear indication of what is most likely to happen.
However I do know that the tendency in today’s society to base everything on one example (as in “You said this match would be a draw and Arsenal lost 0-3 therefore your system is rubbish”). These days one example of now dominates thinking. But for people with a broader perspective the realisation is always that with gambling the aim must be to win more than you lose, not to win all the time.
Now in venturing down this path I am not going to suggest that you should follow the tips and suggestions that we shall be once again be giving next season on Untold, but rather that you might care to add this information to the other data that you use in placing your bets. Three variables: home/away data, injuries and a run of results.
So if you were wanting to bet on an England match I would start by looking at the country’s latest results. Take a look at this
|Date||Home team||Score||Away team|
|14/11/17||England||0 – 0||Brazil|
|23/03/18||Netherlands||0 – 1||England|
|27/03/18||England||1 – 1||Italy|
|02/06/18||England||2 – 1||Nigeria|
|07/06/18||England||2 – 0||Costa Rica|
What we can see is that across five games, largely played at home, England have not scored more than two goals in any of them. That very simple detail makes me think that England are unlikely to score more than two in their world cup games.
What’s more given that against the tougher opposition of Brazil, Netherlands and Italy England scored 0 or 1 I would say there is a suggestion that this 0 or 1 is more likely to be the England goal tally in forthcoming matches.
OK this is incredibly simple stuff, but it is the sort of simplistic analysis that many people who place bets don’t consider. Some do of course, but not all.
If we now look at England’s run of results against Tunisia we find this
|02 Jun 1990||Tunisia v England||D||1-1||International Friendly|
|15 Jun 1998||England v Tunisia||W||2-0||FIFA World Cup|
Here again we get nothing with more than two goals, and just a draw and an England win in the WC.
Last option: let’s go back a bit further:
|01 Sep 2017||Malta v England||W||0-4||FIFA World Cup|
|04 Sep 2017||England v Slovakia||W||2-1||FIFA World Cup|
|05 Oct 2017||England v Slovenia||W||1-0||FIFA World Cup|
|08 Oct 2017||Lithuania v England||W||0-1||FIFA World Cup|
|10 Nov 2017||England v Germany||D||0-0||International Friendly|
|14 Nov 2017||England v Brazil||D||0-0||International Friendly|
|23 Mar 2018||Netherlands v England||W||0-1||International Friendly|
|27 Mar 2018||England v Italy||D||1-1||International Friendly|
|02 Jun 2018||England v Nigeria||W||2-1||International Friendly|
|07 Jun 2018||England v Costa Rica||W||2-0||International Friendly|
This time we have gone right back to the last time England got more than two goals in a game. So now you have the choice with your gambling: the run has to end some time and this could be it, or the run has to end sometime, but the team will be new to Russia, nervous and anxious because of the jumped up way the national media present England as the greatest team in the world and only non-winners because they are forced to play cheating foreigners.
Up to you of course but I think I’d go for 2-1, with a secondary bet of 2-0 – in both cases an England win.
We shall see.
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