By Bulldog Drummond
In a piece yesterday the New York Times revealed that “Since the German league resumed on May 16, there have been only 11 home wins — or 20% — and 28 away wins (50.9%) from 55 games. Home wins accounted for more than 40% of results in the Bundesliga before the break.”
Teeth must really have been gritted at the Daily Mail’s football room as the headline emerged from the subs office, “Arsenal’s domestic record this year, has been quite decent.”
Wow – and again wow!!! because that represents praise of an order so high from that newspaper it is above the atmosphere. But the copywriter would have none of it because immediate he’s back with
- But any momentum is gone after three months of lockdown due to coronavirus
- And the encouragement has given way to the frustration of familiar skirmishes
Yet they do manage to admit that “Arsenal are the only unbeaten team in the Premier League in 2020 and safely into the last eight of the FA Cup.
“But there was evidence, too, of a new-found fighting spirit and determination instilled by Arteta as they twice came back from behind with 10 men at Chelsea in January and passed attitude tests in the FA Cup against Leeds and Portsmouth.”
Now that’s weird. I mean why “But there was evidence.” But is a word of contradiction, yet the previous paragraph was being positive. It just reveals how knocking Arsenal is such a total knee jerk reaction.
“Piece on Arsenal,” orders the editor.
“Usual knocking copy gov?” asks the journalist.
No reply, just a scowl saying “what do you think sunshine?” Quick as a flash the scribbler inserts a “but” even though it is meaningless because everyone knows, no one in the office reads the Mail, and a meaningless piece of jibberish goes through…
“After three months of lockdown, however, any momentum is gone and encouragement has given way to the frustration of familiar skirmishes.”
What familiar skirmishes??? We are not told.
So let’s do the facts, that thing so utterly hated by the media… Arsenal unbeaten in all domestic competitions this year…
| Date | Game | Res | Score | Competition |
| 01 Jan 2020 | Arsenal v Manchester United | W | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 06 Jan 2020 | Arsenal v Leeds United | W | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| 11 Jan 2020 | Crystal Palace v Arsenal | D | 1-1 | Premier League |
| 18 Jan 2020 | Arsenal v Sheffield United | D | 1-1 | Premier League |
| 21 Jan 2020 | Chelsea v Arsenal | D | 2-2 | Premier League |
| 27 Jan 2020 | AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal | W | 1-2 | FA Cup |
| 02 Feb 2020 | Burnley v Arsenal | D | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 16 Feb 2020 | Arsenal v Newcastle United | W | 4-0 | Premier League |
| 23 Feb 2020 | Arsenal v Everton | W | 3-2 | Premier League |
| 02 Mar 2020 | Portsmouth v Arsenal | W | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| 07 Mar 2020 | Arsenal v West Ham United | W | 1-0 | Premier League |
Seven wins, four draws and no defeats.
As for the other team… I’ve dropped the League Cup matches which Man C played as they are normally played with reserve players, and there are no comparative games for Arsenal.
| 01 Jan 2020 | Manchester City v Everton | W | 2-1 | Premier League |
| 04 Jan 2020 | Manchester City v Port Vale | W | 4-1 | FA Cup |
| 12 Jan 2020 | Aston Villa v Manchester City | W | 1-6 | Premier League |
| 18 Jan 2020 | Manchester City v Crystal Palace | D | 2-2 | Premier League |
| 21 Jan 2020 | Sheffield United v Manchester City | W | 0-1 | Premier League |
| 26 Jan 2020 | Manchester City v Fulham | W | 4-0 | FA Cup |
| 02 Feb 2020 | Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City | L | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 19 Feb 2020 | Manchester City v West Ham United | W | 2-0 | Premier League |
| 22 Feb 2020 | Leicester City v Manchester City | W | 0-1 | Premier League |
| 04 Mar 2020 | Sheffield Wednesday v Manchester City | W | 0-1 | FA Cup |
| 08 Mar 2020 | Manchester United v Manchester City | L | 2-0 | Premier League |
In the domestic games it is eight wins, two defeats and one draw.
Arsenal have scored 19 and Man C 23. Each side have played 11.
Of course mostly what will happen will all depend on how the referee and his sidekicks will react to the revelations that have emerged during the interregnum concerning the way they have favoured the home teams. We now know, thanks to the research just how unable the PGMO employees have been to stop giving home teams an advantage (or if you prefer just how easy it is for them to do it). If you have missed it you might find the article on how referees are unable to disconnect from the crowd,
The fact is that referees are affected by the home crowd – there is now evidence from both England, Italy and Germany to show this. The point now is that now two things have changed.
First one of the factors (the home crowd noise) has gone. And second the reality of just how much PGMO referees are influenced by the crowd has been made real.
So the question overwhelmingly is what will PGMO do? Will they let referees get on with it? Will they allow away wins to rise dramatically as they did when football resumed in Germany .
In a piece yesterday the New York Times revealed that “Since the German league resumed on May 16, there have been only 11 home wins — or 20% — and 28 away wins (50.9%) from 55 games. Home wins accounted for more than 40% of results in the Bundesliga before the break.”
Will the PGMO do everything in their power to cover this up, in order to draw attention away from the research that we have also been focusing on, in which referees were shown videos of matches which stopped after each incident that required a referee decision. Where the referees had the sound from the game played to them along with the video they favoured the home team much more than when they had no sound.
So referees are influenced by the home crowd, and now that has gone. Will Arsenal now have an even playing field or will the PGMO officials insert their influence in other ways? We are about to see.
- How referees are unable to disconnect from the crowd
- Without crowds, away teams do much better. So what will the ref do to Arsenal?
- Will home advantage vanish as the PL restarts? And if not, why not?
- Those who can make you believe absurdities: how the media affects refereeing
When and why did it all go wrong?
Part 1
As Tony has pointed out Arsenal have spent quite a lot of money over the last 5 or 6 years, which initial saw us improve:
13/14 = 4th (79pts) + FAC
14/15 = 3rd (75pts) + FAC + CS
15/16 = 2nd (71pts) + CS
16/17 = 5th (75pts) + FAC
So what did all that money get us.
Well the average points over the previous 8 seasons (since our last trophy in 04/05) was 72pts. So an average increase of 3 pts per season. Not much you might say, but if we just increased that by the same again to an average of 78pts per season that would be just 1.5pts shy of the 79.5pts per season we averaged over our most successful period ever between 97/98 – 04/05.
In addition to this increase in average points this relatively small (% wise) improvement was enough to win us 3 FA Cups, 3 CS’s and earn us our highest finish (2nd) for 11 years.
In the great scheme of things money well spent I think. Of course we would of liked to of won the PL but lets not forget we were not the only club spending big and who could of predicted the freaky Liecster City season, just when we could of done without it? But hey, shit happens.
NB:
At this point I just want to mention Liverpool and dispel this myth being perpetuated in the media that somehow they have achieved this years title without spending fortunes.
Now I will say this from the start, Liverpool have done very well. They have bought and sold well and yes, they have kept their Nett spend down, and for that they have to be congratulated but lets not pretend they haven’t been spending enormous amounts of money.
Yes, last year they actually had a Nett profit of £28 Million. But the season before they incured a Nett loss of £127 Million.
Over the last 6 years they have an average Nett spend of £22 Million, which when compared to Arsenal is pretty good.
But as I say that is not the whole story. Over the last 6 years Arsenals Gross spend is £530 Million, Liverpools is £600 Million.
So Liverpool are hardly not spending, it’s just that they have managed to sell some of their assets at extraordinary prices, with one in particular standing out, Coutinho for a bewildering £142 Million.
Without that ONE deal, Liverpools Nett spending over the last 6 seasons would be up around Arsenals at over £45 Million per season.
But they did get £142 M, and credit to them, but as I say, lets not pretend Liverpool are not big spenders.
Anyway, back to Arsenal, and more in particular when and why did it all go wrong?
WHEN
The first thing we have to do is to agree WHEN did it go wrong?
Personally I would say season 17/18. How do I justify that?
Well with a 5th place finish, our first outside the top 4 for over 20 years, season 16/17 FEELS bad if nothing else, but actually, with a points tally of 75 it was our new average, and we won an FA Cup, so was it really that bad? If you’d of asked both Liverpool and Spurs at the time, they would of bitten our hands off for a season like that. So no, the fact is it wasn’t that bad, it’s just that 5th spot made it FEEL that bad.
So the reality is we’ve had 2 what could be called bad seasons. No top 4. No trophies. And 2 points totals bellow, and way bellow what we are used to, and would expect, but I would argue that, though disappointing that is nothing like the catastrophic fall from grace the media are portraying it to be.
So now the why? We have been doing what I believe we should of been doing which is continuing to invest in the squad but clearly something has gone wrong, but what?
Well I have my own ideas and I will address that later in part 2.
Makes me now wonder, If the negative support, we suffered during the last few years, if it effected our results?
I would say “yes” it would have.
on the bbc sport site -lawros predictions -same old arsenal and man city will because they have better players wonder whether he would make these comments about any other club