What do the first five games tell us about the rest of the season?

By Tony Attwood

One of the constant themes of football journalism and blogging is that the fans know more than the manager.  It is a theme encapsulated within phrases like “Odegaard has operated as a no.10 this season with Emile Smith Rowe dropping to the bench, but Arteta started both against Burnley to show their intent to go out and get a positive result.   Arsenal fans have been crying out for the two to be given a chance to coexist in the same team and they didn’t disappoint.”  That comes from the Mirror.

“Crying out” of course symbolises a desperate desire for the manager to see the obvious – which the fans can see without ever once being on the training ground or talking to the players.  No article is complete without a “crying out for” or some such equivalent.

Part of the problem is not just the belief that all opinions are of equal merit (experience and knowledge surely counts for something too) but also that one should not generalise outward from one incident, as where Football London states that

“Tavares did well to snuff out a Burnley attack and carried the ball up the pitch where a pass to either Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang or Nicolas Pepe could have seen the Gunners double their lead.

“But the 21-year-old opted to ignore his teammates and elected to shoot well wide of the target.   Of course, the decision didn’t comeback to haunt Tavares, but it’s safe to say that many supporters weren’t too impressed with his decision-making.”

Another single incident, another condemnation, because everyone is entitled to an opinion, except by and large the manager.

Fortunately after two wins, although only each by one goal and both  against lower level clubs, Arsenal’s situation has improved before the game against Tottenham next weekend, while the tiny totts activities against Chelsea has knocked them down a peg or two.

But here’s a thought.   How well does the position of a team after a handful of games, reflect where the club ends up on the final day?

I am sure everyone knows where we are after five games, but just in case there’s any doubt, here’s the table…

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
7	Tottenham Hots	5	3	0	2	3	6	-3	9
8	West Ham United	5	2	2	1	11	7	4	8
9	Brentford	5	2	2	1	5	2	3	8
10	Aston Villa	5	2	1	2	8	7	1	7
11	Watford	5	2	0	3	6	8	-2	6
12	Leicester City	5	2	0	3	5	8	-3	6
13	Arsenal	5	2	0	3	2	9	-7	6

That doesn’t look too exciting, being three points behind the Tinies after just five games, but let’s go back 10 years to the day and consider the league table on 20 September 2011.  And this time I’ll run the whole table because there are some interesting names near the top, with Newcastle United, Stoke City, Aston Villa, Queens Park Rangers, Sunderland, Norwich City, Swansea City, Wigan Athletic and Blackburn Rovers all being above us.

We were 11 points off the top of the league, as opposed to seven at the moment.

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Manchester United	5	5	0	0	21	4	17	15
2	Manchester City	5	4	1	0	17	5	12	13
3	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	8	6	2	10
4	Newcastle United	5	2	3	0	4	2	2	9
5	Stoke City	5	2	2	1	3	5	-2	8
6	Aston Villa	5	1	4	0	6	4	2	7
7	Everton	4	2	1	1	6	4	2	7
8	Liverpool	5	2	1	2	6	7	-1	7
9	Queens Park Rangers	5	2	1	2	4	6	-2	7
10	Wolverhampton Wanderers	5	2	1	2	4	6	-2	7
11	Tottenham Hotspur	4	2	0	2	7	8	-1	6
12	Sunderland	5	1	2	2	6	4	2	5
13	Norwich City	5	1	2	2	5	7	-2	5
14	Swansea City	5	1	2	2	3	5	-2	5
15	Wigan Athletic	5	1	2	2	4	7	-3	5
16	Blackburn Rovers	5	1	1	3	7	10	-3	4
17	Arsenal	5	1	1	3	6	14	-8	4
18	Fulham	5	0	3	2	4	7	-3	3
19	Bolton Wanderers	5	1	0	4	8	13	-5	3
20	West Bromwich Albion	5	1	0	4	3	8	-5	3

Of course you may have an encyclopedic knowledge of each season and how it concluded but in case not here is the table at the end of the season.

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	38	28	5	5	93	29	64	89
2	Manchester United	38	28	5	5	89	33	56	89
3	Arsenal	38	21	7	10	74	49	25	70
4	Tottenham Hotspur	38	20	9	9	66	41	25	69
5	Newcastle United	38	19	8	11	56	51	5	65

Third might not be a trophy, and being one place below the media’s favourites – Leicester City – doesn’t mean that Arsenal will this season rise up to third, but it does show that we need to be cautious about reading too much into the league table at this stage.   Especially as we have six new players being integrated into the team, and all of them having to get used to a radical style of playing – not to mention a radical style of refereeing that they will not have encountered before.

Incidentally it is also interesting to note that 40% of the clubs in the Premier League ten years ago are not in the league this season, including the likes of Wigan, Bolton and Sunderland now in the third tier.

Wigan are top of League One where they are followed by Sunderland.  Bolton are 8th.  

So maybe as we contemplate Arsenal sitting in 13th at the moment we should also remember those 100+ years in the top division, unmatched by anyone else.  Or the fact that in Herbert Chapman’s second season Arsenal finished 11th in the league.

Oh, and if you are contemplating writing in to say that Arsenal fixed their promotion in 1919, you might care to read some of the articles in that 100+ link, because you really can’t believe all you read in the papers.

Understanding Arsenal’s start to the 2021/22 season

• Just how many new players can Arsenal bring in over three summers
• Spending and tackles – is last season’s trend continuing?
• Does being bottom after 3 games actually tell us how the season will end?
• It is the failure to ask one simple question that is causing problems for Arsenal
• It has taken 3 years and we are still not back at the level of when Wenger left
• Does changing managers actually work for Arsenal?