The set of predictions that tell us exactly how the final table will look

 

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By Tony Attwood

As ever the data that is required to get a clear picture of which teams are most likely to get into Europe and which most likely to be relegated is not hard to put together – although by and large the media prefers make-believe tales from pundits.

Our approach started by calculating the league table on the basis of points per game, in order to take account that clubs near the top of the league have played between 25 and 28 games.

On this basis the clubs heading into the Champions League are Arsenal, Manchester City and United, and Newcastle United.   Tottenham and Brighton & Hove got into the Europa and Liverpool into the Conference.

The final column in this first table therefore is “points per game” (PPG).  

 

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	PPG
1	Arsenal	28	22	3	3	66	26	40	69	2.46
2	Manchester City	27	19	4	4	67	25	42	61	2.26
3	Manchester United	26	15	5	6	41	35	6	50	1,92
4	Newcastle United	26	12	11	3	39	19	20	47	1.81
5	Tottenham Hotspur	28	15	4	9	52	40	12	49	1.75
6	Brighton and Hove Albion	25	12	6	7	46	31	15	42	1.68
7	Liverpool	26	12	6	8	47	29	18	42	1.61

 

As for relegation on this season’s form, removing the variable of some clubs having played more than others,  it is Everton, Bournemouth and Southampton for the chop.

 

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	PPG
15	Nottingham Forest	27	6	8	13	22	49	-27	26	0.96
16	Leicester City	27	7	4	16	38	47	-9	25	0.93
17	West Ham United	26	6	6	14	24	34	-10	24	0.93
18	Everton	28	6	8	14	22	40	-18	26	0.93
19	AFC Bournemouth	27	6	6	15	25	54	-29	24	0.89
20	Southampton	28	6	5	17	23	46	-23	23	0.82

 

But of course these figures take into account the whole season and make no allowance for recent form – which in terms of the battle over the last 10 or so games, is quite important.   

In fact taking in account various factors is what one always has to do as indeed you will find is the case in the most enjoyable games – no matter what sort of games.  Indeed if you want to find a number of enjoyable free games take a look at Powerplay.net 

So now we have a look at the last six games each team has played

 

Premier League Form (Last 6)

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	PPG
1	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	19	5	14	18	3.00
2	Manchester City	6	5	1	0	14	4	10	16	2.67
3	Liverpool	6	4	1	1	13	1	12	13	2.17
4	Brighton & Hove	6	3	2	1	9	4	5	11	1.83
5	Manchester Utd	6	3	2	1	9	10	-1	11	1.83
6	Tottenham Hotspur	6	3	1	2	11	9	2	10	1.67
7	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	10	8	2	10	1.67

 

We can see that the top two in terms of points per game for the whole season are also the top two based on the last six  games played.   Liverpool and Brighton have been performing better in the last six games than across the whole season, while Manchester United and Tottenham have been performing worse of late than they have across the whole season.   Newcastle have dropped out of the top seven, and on the basis of the last six games are 12th.

In other words Liverpool and Brighton might do better in their remaining games than our initial PPG table suggests while Manchester United and Tottenham might do worse.  That might suggest a final table in which Liverpool and Brighton push up a little, while Newcastle, Manchester United and Tottenham could slip.

To confirm if this is a major trend or just a blip we can also consult the last ten games table.

 

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts	PPG
1	Manchester City	10	7	1	2	22	9	13	22	2.20
2	Arsenal	10	7	1	2	24	12	12	22	2.20
3	Brentford	10	5	4	1	16	7	9	19	1.90
4	Brighton & Hove	10	5	3	2	20	11	9	18	1.80
5	Manchester Utd	10	5	3	2	17	15	2	18	1.80
6	Aston Villa	10	5	2	3	16	14	2	17	1.70
7	Tottenham Hotspur	10	5	1	4	15	15	0	16	1.60
8	Liverpool	10	4	2	4	14	10	4	14	1.40

 

This table confirms that Tottenham Hotspur are sinking, Liverpool for all their movement in the last six really do only have this in the last six, and Manchester United are functioning at a level in keeping with being just below the top four.  PPG10 of course means points per game across the last 10 games.

 

Pos	Team	PPG	PPG10	PPG6
1	Arsenal	2.46	2.20	3.00
2	Manchester City	2.26	2.20	2.67
3	Manchester United	1.92	2.80	1.83
5	Newcastle United	1.81	1.40	1.33
4	Tottenham Hotspur	1.75	1.60	1.67
7	Brighton and Hove Albion	1.68	1.80	1.83
6	Liverpool	1.61	1.40	2.17

 

On the basis of these various charts Arsenal win the league, and Manchester City are second.

The rising star is Liverpool who in the last six games have been performing like a third placed team rather than a sixth placed team.  So we predict they will have a good run in for the rest of the season.

So what we have done is taken the position of the clubs thus far, and then looked at their performance over the last 10 and last six games, and worked out what would happen if they carried as they have been doing in these recent games.

 

Pos	Team	End of season points
1	Arsenal	91
2	Manchester City	90
3	Manchester United	72
4	Liverpool	68
5	Brighton and Hove Albion	68
6	Tottenham Hotspur	66
7	Newcastle United	63

 

We didn’t feel able to work out the goal difference (what with the supercomputer being on the blink) but the only place where we have two teams on the same points is for fourth and fifth and with Liverpool having the better goal difference of late, we’ve given fourth place to them.

You can of course have a big laugh at our expense, both now and at the end of the season, but in reply I’d say, first, we did at least put a prediction forward, second we tried to work it out with data rather than feelings (based on the current table and the last six and last ten games) and of course we are not claiming this is going to be right.   We are assuming that recent trends keep running, but that of course doesn’t happen.  Or at least not all the time.

But it was quite interesting to work out, and helped pass the time.