Did the January transfer window make any difference to the league table?

By Tony Attwood

Since  the transfer window closed clubs in the Premier League have played between eight and 11 games. Fulham for example have played eight, Arsenal and Leeds United have played 11.

So I thought it might be interesting to see how clubs have been doing since the transfer window closed – with access to their new players – and whether that gives us a further insight into how the season will end.  (You might recall we’ve already had one go at this).

Of particular interest this time around is whether the transfer window made any difference to the situation.  So we’ve looked at the number of deals done in January, including deals that were concluded after the closure of last summer’s window but before 1 January, since players signed in that period were obviously not able to play until 1 January.

And the aim is to see how this might affect the league table.   We’ve included the actual league position at the end of 31 January but this turns out to be a bit misleading because some clubs have played more games than others.  So really this very first column is just a reference point back to how the table looked at the end of the window.

Of more interest is the number of players brought into each club (column three), the points per game since the window closed on 31 January (column 4), and how the league would look if we just took games after 31 January, and sorted out league positions on a points per game basis.

 

League position since 31 Jan Team January transfers and loans Points per game since 31 Jan PPG position since 31 Jan
1 Arsenal 3 2.09 2
2 Manchester City 1 2.44 1
3 Aston Villa 2 1.90 3
4 Newcastle United 1 1.89 4
5 Tottenham Hotspur 3 1.88 5
6 Manchester United 3 1.89 5
7 Liverpool 1 1.50 8
8 Brighton and Hove 4 1.66 7
9 Wolverhampton 7 1.40 9
10 Brentford 6 1.30 11
11 AFC Bournemouth 7 1.30 11
12 West Ham United 3 1.33 10
13 Everton 8 1.20 13
14 Leeds United 4 1.00 14
15 Chelsea 8 1.00 14
16 Crystal Palace 2 0.90 17
17 Fulham 2 1.00 14
18 Southampton 5 0.80 18
19 Leicester City 4 0.70 19
20 Nottingham Forest 6 0.60 20

 

Using points per game as a measure and looking at the matches from 1 February onwards the top of the table shows that the regular “big 7” has a new interloper: Aston Villa.  Figures below are extracted from TWTD database.

H O M E A W A Y
Pos Team P W D L F A W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 11 4 1 1 17 8 3 1 1 10 5 14 23
2 Manchester City 9 3 0 0 9 2 4 1 1 13 5 15 22
3 Aston Villa 10 3 0 2 10 8 3 1 1 8 5 5 19
4 Newcastle United 9 2 1 1 5 4 3 1 1 10 6 5 17
5 Tottenham Hotspur 9 5 0 0 10 2 0 2 2 5 9 4 17
6 Manchester United 9 4 2 0 10 3 1 0 2 2 9 0 17
7 Liverpool 10 3 1 0 13 2 1 2 3 3 8 6 15

Arsenal are still top, but if one takes into account the extra games played then they would not be – Manchester City would be.  And Aston Villa are the surprise team of the moment. 

Measured from 1 February they are third in the league, and even when we do it on a points per game basis they are still third.Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Liverpool have all vanished out of the top four!   Tottenham in particular are showing a sizeable decline in away form. 

Overall they are sixth in away form this season with five wins, five draws and five defeats.  However if we just measured results in 2023 they would be in the bottom half of the table.So if we take the top of the table overall and then consider the current form we see this…

Pos Team Pld Pts PPG since 31/1/23 Points in remaining games Final points
1 Arsenal 30 73 2.09 17 90
2 Manchester City 29 67 2.44 22 89
3 Newcastle United 29 56 1.89 17 73
4 Manchester United 29 56 1.89 17 73
5 Tottenham Hotspur 30 53 1.88 15 68
6 Aston Villa 30 47 1.90 15 62

Now of course this is not the first time we have done this.  Indeed on 28 March we took for the first time.   But now what we have done is taken the position of the clubs thus far, and then looked at their performance over the last 10 games, and worked out what would happen if they carried as they have been doing in these recent games.

And this is what we get.

Pos Team End of season points
1 Arsenal 91
2 Manchester City 90
3 Manchester United 72
4 Liverpool 68
5 Brighton and Hove Albion 68
6 Tottenham Hotspur 66
7 Newcastle United 63

The two tables do look different  so to conclude this little piece with, here are the two tables together – and this is the best projection we can make based on all the data available.

 

Pos Team 28 March Projection Pts 14 April projection Pts
1 Arsenal 91 90
2 Manchester City 90 89
3 Manchester United 72 73
4 Liverpool 68
5 Brighton and Hove Albion 68
6 Tottenham Hotspur 66 66
7 Newcastle United 63 73

Liverpool and Brighton now don’t make our top seven.   I’ve done enough figures for now so I am not going back to find out who it will be in sixth and seventh spot.  Maybe later when I can focus again!

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