One more win secures runners’ up place: Newcastle v Arsenal




By Bulldog Drummond

We know that winning the league will be extremely difficult because we have to overtake Manchester City but it is good to know that Arsenal are certain of a top four finish, and for Arsenal to drop to fourth they would not only have to have an awful season’s end in terms of a run of defeats, those defeats would have to be fairly large scale affairs while Newcastle and Manchester United would have to keep winning every match.

Indeed in Manchester United’s case that would have to be by an average of around five goals a game (although it would vary depending on the size of Arsenal’s defeats).  It seems rather unlikely and I think we can say safely say a top-three position is secured.  And one win in the next four games will make runner’s up place certain.

And to look back at our prediction at the start of the season, based on last season’s efforts, we predicted… third.  So we are either going to be right (I hope not) or wrong by one place, because I honestly can’t see Manchester City slipping up now.

There’s no prize for coming second or third of course, apart from a lot of crowing here given that most other people predicted fifth or sixth, (unless you put a bet on it at the start of the season).  I imagine the odds would have been rather good given the way the media were talking Arsenal down throughout the summer.  And of course, as ever there is no sign of any apology from the media for their ludicrously inaccurate predictions about the future of Arsenal and Tottenham.

So this table shows where everything is now, how many points each club could get in total and then their potentially highest position.


Team P W D L F A GD Pts Max Top Pos
1 Manchester City 34 26 4 4 89 31 58 82 94 1
2 Arsenal 34 24 6 4 81 39 42 78 90 1
3 Newcastle United 33 18 11 4 61 27 34 65 80 2
4 Manchester United 33 19 6 8 49 40 9 63 78 3
5 Liverpool 35 18 8 9 67 42 25 62 71 3
6 Tottenham Hotspur 35 17 6 12 64 57 7 57 66 3
7 Brighton and Hove Albion 32 16 7 9 62 40 22 55 73 3


The current media talk is that Arsenal actually weren’t that good against Chelsea but rather that Chelsea were so bad they made Arsenal look good – I seem to have heard that sort of story before.

And as a result of that, the feeling seems to be that Newcastle will win against Arsenal – but there is something I don’t understand here (although it may be because I was up half the night after my car broke down and had to be brought back to my place on a rescue truck – which is rather humiliating and frustrating – although excellent work by Green Flag).

The BBC website says, “Newcastle are vying to win three consecutive Premier League home games against Arsenal for the first time since 1996.”

But when I look at the recent results against Newcastle from 11v11 that shows me this…

Date Match Res Score Competition
15 Sep 2018 Newcastle United v Arsenal W 1-2 Premier League
01 Apr 2019 Arsenal v Newcastle United W 2-0 Premier League
11 Aug 2019 Newcastle United v Arsenal W 0-1 Premier League
16 Feb 2020 Arsenal v Newcastle United W 4-0 Premier League
09 Jan 2021 Arsenal v Newcastle United W 2-0 FA Cup
18 Jan 2021 Arsenal v Newcastle United W 3-0 Premier League
02 May 2021 Newcastle United v Arsenal W 0-2 Premier League
27 Nov 2021 Arsenal v Newcastle United W 2-0 Premier League
16 May 2022 Newcastle United v Arsenal L 2-0 Premier League
03 Jan 2023 Arsenal v Newcastle United D 0-0 Premier League


I think however the other statement they make that, “The Magpies drew 0-0 at the Emirates Stadium in January and could avoid defeat in both Premier League meetings against Arsenal in a single season for the first time since 2010-11” is the right one.

And here’s another one from the BBC: “Arsenal have kept 29 clean sheets against Newcastle in the Premier League – no side has kept more against a single opponent in the competition’s history.”  That’s rather fun.

3 Replies to “One more win secures runners’ up place: Newcastle v Arsenal”

  1. Arsenal is leading the football match but in fairness Newcastle seems to be doing well in the Greco-Roman wrestling match.

  2. So, apparently a forward may punch the ball out of a keeper’s hands with impunity…

  3. To answer you’re question, I got 40/1 for my £20 each way before the season started.

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