How Arsenal could still win the league – despite Manchester City

 

 

 

• Why football fans believe the opposition cheats.
• Why we believe the opposition clubs and players are cheats – conclusion

By Tony Attwood

We decided to counteract the rather heavy analyses in recent articles over the future of football by having a look at the future of this season – still in as scientific a way as possible but also with a few fun assumptions en route.

So instead of claiming rather insanely as the journalists do, that we have somehow got access to a supercomputer, we actually got out the office calculator.

What we have done is taken the league table as we know it, showing the games played, goal difference and points.

But then in the next column L6PG we have calculated how many points per game each club has had in the last six matches – this we think being a good guide to form.  So based on Arsenal’s last six games we think Arsenal will get just five points from the remaining three matches.

• .5 is rounded up to 1 in keeping with common practice.
• L6PG = Points per game in last six games

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts Now	L6PG	Xtra Pts	Final pts	Final Pos
1	Manchester City	34	58	82	3.00	12	94	1
2	Arsenal	35	44	81	1.50	5	86	2
3	Newcastle United	34	32	65	2,00	8	73	3
4	Manchester United	34	8	63	1.67	7	70	5
5	Liverpool	35	25	62	3.00	9	71	4
6	Tottenham Hotspur	35	7	57	0.83	2	59	8
7	Brighton and Hove A	33	18	55	1.50	9	64	6
8	Aston Villa	35	3	54	1.67	5	59	7

Thus Arsenal have won two, drawn three and lost one of the last six giving Arsenal nine points, of 1.50 points per game over the last six games.

Then we multiply that number with the number of games left to play (three for Arsenal) and that gives us five points from three games (as is common in statistics, a result of .5 is always rounded up), and so we end up with 86 points.

The final columns in the table below give us the total points and position.   

 

Pos Now	Team	P	GD	Pts	L6PG	Xtra Pts	Final pts	Pos
1	Manchester City	34	58	82	3.00	12	94	1
2	Arsenal	35	44	81	1.50	5	86	2
3	Newcastle United	34	32	65	2,00	8	73	3
5	Liverpool	35	25	62	3.00	9	71	4
4	Manchester United	34	8	63	1.67	7	70	5
7	Brighton and Hove A	33	18	55	1.50	9	64	6
8	Aston Villa	35	3	54	1.67	5	59	7
6	Tottenham Hotspur	35	7	57	0.83	2	59	8

 

The only place goal difference comes into play is for seventh and eighth place.  At the moment Tottenham are on +7 goal difference and Aston Villa on +3 goal difference with each team having three to play.  But we think Villa will get five points from three games, which has to mean two draws and a win.

Tottenham however we think will only get two points (based statistically on their last six matches, which suggests two draws and a defeat.   We think the game Tottenham lose will be lost 3-0, and the game Villa win will be won 2-0, and so that gives Villa the seventh place by one goal.  Of course, there is absolutely no bias in this thinking.

So rather sadly (!) Tottenham will miss out on Europe, while Villa will trot along into the Conference.  Although some of the gang thought that making Tottenham play in the Conference again (a competition in which, as you may recall, they refused to finish all their fixtures last time round) would be fun.   Especially if Uefa then held a meeting to discuss a suitable punishment for Tottenham not fulfilling all their fixtures last season, and kicked them out.

But as far as we know Tottenham got no punishment for not completing their conference fixtures other than forfeiting the match they didn’t play 0-3, which sets quite a precedent because it means any club that thinks they might lose a game by more than 3-0 might well now decide to forfeit the game.

But back to Arsenal – based on that last six games we gave Arsenal five points, but looking at the fixtures there are grounds for thinking we might well do better than that and pick up nine.  It still wouldn’t win Arsenal the league, as we think Manchester City could pick up more than that, but still, it would be nice.

Remaining fixtures

Arsenal
PL: Brighton (H) – May 14
PL: Nottingham Forest (A) – May 20
PL: Wolverhampton (H) – May 28

Manchester City
UCL SF: Real Madrid (A) – May 9
PL: Everton (A) – May 14
UCL SF: Real Madrid (H) – May 17
PL: Chelsea (H) – May 21
PL: Brighton (A) – May 24
PL: Brentford (A) – May 28
FA Cup Final: Manchester United (N) – June 3
Champions League Final - June 10

But here’s a thought: Manchester City want to win the treble of Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup, so although their league matches don’t look too horrific for them, they might slip up in one or two games to ensure no injuries so they can win the FA Cup and the Champions League.

Arsenal could get 90 points by winning all their remaining matches, which means if Manchester City get seven points or fewer in their remaining league games, Arsenal win the league.

Looking at the four games that would mean two wins, one draw, one defeat.  It seems unlikely against this opposition…

• PL: Everton (A) – May 14
• PL: Chelsea (H) – May 21
• PL: Brighton (A) – May 24
• PL: Brentford (A) – May 28

But just supposing they play a very much weakened team because of their focus on the cups, it might just happen.  Or the league might dock them points for playing a weakened team.   Straws and clutching activities come to mind but it is, after all, a funny old game.