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By Tony Attwood
Although it is quite possible that by the time you read this the details may have changed again, as I understand it at the moment, the opening three fixtures for Arsenal this season are
- Saturday 12th August: Nottingham Forest (home)
- Monday 21st August: Crystal Palace (away)
-
Saturday 26th August: Fulham (home)
And that is interesting because after three games last season, the table revealed Arsenal top of the league with three straight wins, while the season before (2021/2) showed Arsenal bottom of the league with three straight defeats.
Looking at those three we might be tempted to predict another top-of-the-table moment, but a certain level of caution should be added.
And I say that because I am sure that once again this season there will be people with a very limited understanding of football making predictions on the end of the season after three games. So, given that last season Arsenal were top of the league after three games and ultimately came second, while the season before Arsenal were bottom of the league after three games and came fifth, I thought it might be interesting to see if anything can be gleaned from the first three games.
So here is the league table last season after three games with a final column showing where the club ended up. (League tables derived from 11v11).
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 1 |
| 3 | Leeds United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| 5 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 |
| 6 | Newcastle United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Fulham | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Brentford | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 |
| 10 | Nottingham Forest | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 16 |
| 11 | Southampton | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 | 20 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 | 15 |
| 16 | Liverpool | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 5 |
| 17 | Everton | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | 17 |
| 18 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 | 13 |
| 19 | Leicester City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1 | 19 |
| 20 | West Ham United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 14 |
As we can see, four of the ultimate top six were in the top six after three matches, and three of the final bottom six were in the bottom six after three games.
But here is an interesting point: after three games, eight of the 20 clubs were within one position of their final place in the league. Of course, knowing which eight that would be is a different matter.
But what about the season before (2021/2)…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 2 | West Ham United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| 6 | Everton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 1 |
| 8 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Leicester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 | 8 |
| 10 | Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 12 | Watford | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | 19 |
| 13 | Southampton | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2 | 15 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2 | 12 |
| 15 | Leeds United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | 17 |
| 16 | Burnley | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 | 18 |
| 17 | Newcastle United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 | 11 |
| 18 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 | 20 |
| 20 | Arsenal | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 | 5 |
Somewhat off message. How is it that on transfer deadline day/night we can get signings over the line in a matter of hours/minutes, when the Rice and Timber transactions are taking literally weeks. Is it just an Arsenal thing? If so I’m sure it will not encourage others to enter into negotiations with us or has something general changed in the transfer market?
Raymond, that’s an interesting question, and I suspect there are many elements in the answer. Obviously on deadline day everyone knows that compromises have to be made if the deal is to get done in time: so a club demanding £55m for a player but being offered £50m with five hours to go have a simple choice – sell or not. But if there are 6 weeks to go, they can play hardball knowing they might still get the extra £5m.
I am not sure about the Rice deal; everyone says it is done and so I think it is just the issue of the personal details with the player, and I doubt that will put anyone off dealing with Arsenal. There are also particular issues elsewhere – chelsea have to get rid of a lot of players to meet the 25 requirements, and no player of quality will agree to go there when there is still a risk he might not actually make the 25 because of a lack of spaces.
Numbers! So many numbers and so confusing for journalists and bloggers that they almost never use them. Of course, they can manage things like “the first three” because three is such a small number. I tell you what else they can manage: some little-known blog announced an update on the Timber transfer. According to said blogger, the genius Dharmesh Sheth of SkySports tweeted that Arsenal hope to have the Jurrien Timber move sorted in time for him to be part of the squad for the Nurnberg game on Thursday. I could have tweeted that myself as I am sure the club is hopeful. I am hopeful. All Arsenal suporters are hopeful.
I watched Sheth say the very same in a Youtube video yesterday in a manner so hesitant, you knew he was blowing smoke. Did he follow up with numbers? Of course not, other than the fact that Thursday was three days away. Numbers!
Exclusive: I look forward to the day when Dharmesh Sheth manages to say something informative.