- Arsenal’s three seasons of improvement is very unusual, but must be maintained
- Arsenal’s task now is stability in a rapidly changing league
By Tony Attwood
As we have been noting for some time, the media was utterly and totally hopeless when it came to predicting the 2022/23 season, and doubly so where the media in question claimed that a supercomputer was involved.
And again as we have pointed out, this use of a supercomputer for football prediction is incredibly unlikley. As Factmr website says supercomputers have a “High cost of ownership and enormous power consumption” with the “cost of designing, building, and deploying a supercomputer” ranging from US$ 100 million to US$ 300 million.”
So two things. One: is it likely that $200m machine with enormous running costs would be used to predict the outcome of the Premier League? Two, is it likely that if such a machine (which is normally used for such minor matters as the defence of the realm), were to be given a bit of time off, it would be used to predict football results? (Can you imagine it – Russia has just invaded but we missed it because the Sun was using the machine to predict football results…)
Probably not, but the Sun thinks so and indeed despite its failure last season to get the forecast anything like right, the publishers think we are so utterly, pathetically stupid that we will forget last season and believe it this time. (Or indeed believe that a supercomputer was involved).
This is what it predicted a year ago (with the actual result in the following column just so you can see how accurate (or perhaps otherwise) they were.
|Predicted Position||Actual position||Club||Predicted GD||Actual GD||Predicted points||Actual points|
So how did they do? They got one of the top four right – which is pretty pathetic – for a supercomputer.
On goal difference they were 39 out with Chelsea. With Arsenal they underestimated the number of points by a whopping 23 and the GD by 33. With Chelsea the points were 28 wrong and the GD 53 out. And this is allegedly a machine that is working on the nuclear defence of the realm! On this basis, I wouldn’t be surprised if it had declared war on Greenland by the time you read this.
So, given that this is a load of mindless gibberish and utter tripe, what does the Sun have in line for us this time?
Well, maybe the first thing to notice is how seriously they take themselves despite the catastrophic set of errors in last year’s prediction (which curiously they don’t mention). And they have the nerve to say that the “news” (so it is news now, not a wild and whacky prediction by a non-existent machine) “will be bitterly disappointing for Arsenal fans who are hoping Mikel Arteta can go one better and win the league after a second-place finish last year.”
And this tells you what the Sun thinks of Arsenal fans. A newspaper that invented a supercomputer, which then got its predictions utterly wrong last year (something that would be worrying in itself because these are the machines that tell our military when we are under nuclear attack) is now telling us that we are going to be “bitterly disappointed” because they have made the prediction that Arsenal “are in fact not set to even finish second.” My goodness they have an inflated vision of their importance.
Now maybe because of the utter disaster of last season’s predictions, the Sun has chickened out of giving us anything other than the positions for the coming season. Instead it prints the badges of each club, just in case we have forgotten, and because they think we won’t notice the lack of any other detail. Ahhhh…. But we do get the order of the teams so here we go…
- Manchester City (last season 1st)
- Liverpool (last season 5th)
- Arsenal (last season 2nd)
- Manchester United (last season 3rd)
- Newcastle United (last season 4th)
- Chelsea (last season 12th)
- Tottenham Hotspur (last season 8th)
Now if you recall from our last post we showed that totals really jump around a bit from one season to the next. They have got the same top five this coming season, as in the season just finished, but in a slightly different order. Yes it can happen, but it is very unusual – and oh that was the mistake they made with their supercomputer last year. Funny that.
What the people who write this stuff haven’t understood (presumably because they don’t bother to look at the maths, and of course aren’t using a real supercomputer because those machines are rather busy trying to ensure that no country launches a surprise nuclear attack on the kingdom) is that one season being like the previous season in terms of where clubs end up in the top half dozen or so places is very unusual.
But year after year they keep on predicting it will happen.
As John W Henry once tweeted,: “What do you think they’re smoking over there at Emirates?” That comment was a bluff as he later admitted as Arsene Wenger had his facts absolutely right. But we might be slightly more polite than Mr Henry and not allege any illegal activity but simply ask, “How much are they drinking at London Bridge Place?”
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- We are running out of referees, and the reason is the PGMO.
- Arsenal v Tottenham: the key fact the media won’t to tell you – and why they won’t
- Arsenal v Tottenham: different clubs, different managers, different successes