West Ham v Arsenal: predicting the team, and the score.




by Bulldog Drummond

West Ham United is one of the clubs that Arsenal generally beat.  Of the 148 games between the two clubs 72 (49%) have been Arsenal victories, while 35 (24%) have been West Ham wins, with the remaining 41 of course being draws.

There were two FA Cup games in 1906 but regular competition between the two opened up in 1923 and initially, West Ham were the dominant side.   Leaving aside the two cup games in 1906, Arsenal won only five of the 19 Division One and FA Cup games between the two side from 1923 through to 1930.  West Ham won eight of those games including a catastrophic 7-0 game in 1927.

Of the remaining three games in 1931/2 Arsenal won two and drew one, scoring nine and conceding four in the process, before West Ham popped off for one of their regular visits to the second division as Arsenal started to dominate the league.

League matches resumed in 1958 with the return of West Ham to Division One, and curiously Arsenal again found them troublesome opponents.   In fact in the 22 Division One, and League Cup games between 8 November 1958 and 26 October 1968, Arsenal won just three!  12 were draws and seven were West Ham victories.   This was indeed the era when commentators would regularly say that by and large London teams would not ever win the league again because with five London clubs regularly in League Division One, and with most derby games ending in draws, the clubs from the rest of the country had a profound advantage.

But then the pendulum swung the other way and between September 2007 and April 2023 Arsenal won 24 of the 32 matches played between between the two clubs.  Six have been draws and West Ham United have won just two.  That is a run that shows three quarters of the games have been won by Arsenal over a 31 match run.

CBS Sports however have a piece headlined “Why you should back West Ham” which notes that they “have lost only one of their last 10 League Cup matches at London Stadium, winning six games and drawing three others.” 

And yet when one looks at West Ham’s league cup performance in the last dozen years that is not really a reflection on reality.  Last year they were knocked out by Blackburn, in 2019/20 it was Oxford who did them, in 2014/15 Sheffield United saw them off, and in 2012/13 it was Wigan, while the year before that it was Aldershot.   This is not the tale of a side that powers its way through the competition.

Indeed in the past 10 years West Ham have gone out in the second round once, the third round three times, the fourth round three times, the quarter finals three times and the semi-finals once.

On the other hand in the coming weeks Arsenal play Newcastle, Burnley and Brentford in the league, and Lens and Sevilla in the Champions League, so they won’t want to risk too many first-team players.

Arsenal have three injuries (Partey, Gabriel and Timber) but given the league and Champions League fixtures coming up may now look to introduce some lesser-known faces.   The Standard suggest that Arsenal will win 3-1. 

Sports Mole offer a team line up of


White, Tomiyasu, Gabriel, Kiwior;

Vieira, Jorginho, Havertz;

Nelson, Nketiah, Trossard

and they predict a 0-2 Arsenal victory.

Pain in the Arsenal offer a slight variation in the team…


White, Tomiyasu, Gabriel, Kiwior;

Jorginho, Smith Rowe, Vieira;

Nelson, Havertz, Trossard.

Football.London come up with


White, Gabriel, Kiwior, Tomiyasu;

Jorginho, Vieira, Smith Rowe;

Nelson, Nketiah, Trossard.

but they predict a 1-0 West Ham win.   (They have at least stopped suggesting they are using a super computer).

Perhaps the most amusing line up prediction however comes from a source we’ve not mentioned before: MightyTips.com


White, Saliba, Kiwior, Tomiyasu;

Havertz, Rice, Smith Rowe;

Trossard, Nketiah, Trossard.

The introduction of both of the Trossard twins at once is certainly revolutionary and as they are identical could cause some confusion in the West Ham defence.

And to round this off, I’ve been taking a look at the Independent which we don’t often cite.  But they make the very valid point that “West Ham managed just one shot on target in Sunday’s loss to Everton” and were previously “totally outplayed the week before that at Aston Villa and then seen their long unbeaten run in Europe ended by Olympiakos a few days later.”

Plus they note that Arsenal “have scored at least two goals in 13 of the last 15 visits and have only failed to score once in their last 16 away matches in all competitions.”

So we live in hope and expectation.

7 Replies to “West Ham v Arsenal: predicting the team, and the score.”

  1. On the West Ham goal, Ramsdale had his shirt almost ripped off by a West Ham player… at this moment, let’s just say I missed VAR…..

  2. It is beyond belief that wasn’t seen by either official. A more blatant shirt pull would be hard to find. Absolute joke.

  3. well, bad day at the office.
    An Arsenal team not really looking like they wanted to win.
    Strange. Except Odegaard, none of the players was at their normal level.
    No idea why…

  4. Chris

    Yep, except Odegaard.

    Very odd game.

    If you just looked at the stats you’d wonder how we didn’t win. Every stat except the one that counts in our favour.

    Possession 71% to 29%

    Shots 14 (3) to 5 (3)

    Attacks 142 to 42 Over 3 times as many

    Dangerous Attacks 83 to 19 Over 4 times as many.

    The first half was ridiculous. Despite ZERO goal attempts of any kind they led 1- 0

    But apart from a Havertz flick on target we never really threatened.

    The second half we looked even less threatening, until Odegaard came on. Lets hope that’s a sign he’s getting back to his best.

    But all in all, as you say Chris, not a great day at the office.

  5. I have recently been reminded of how perceptive children are , how their minds work and how inquisitive they are . If you try to explain things to my grandkids they usually reply with the big question “WHY “.
    When I looked back at last nights game that was the question that ran through my mind and as I sat at home with my son we tried to come to terms with what we had just watched.
    West Ham were more aggressive throughout , they gave the impression that they wanted it more . Despite our possession stats being superior we never looked like scoring . Nketiah , Trossard and Nelson looked impotent . Jorginho , Havertz and Zinchenko consistently played either negative passes or gave the ball away and consequently as we had no functioning defensive midfield we were on the back foot every time they broke out .
    Ramsdale played and let in 3 goals , unless Raya gets injured I very much doubt that we will see him again before possibly the F.A Cup or at all should he go in January . Having said that ,the first should have been ruled out for the shirt pull , Zinchenko was hopelessly out of position for the second and the third was a massive deflection.
    It questions the quality and the mind set of the players that don’t start on a regular basis . Until Rice , Martinelli and Saka came on we didn’t look like we had anything going for us and Odegaard was given 10 minutes to get his legs going for the weekend and scored a free kick which to me proves that too many changes were made and that we have players who are not cutting it.
    I have’nt mentioned Havertz but in the words of my 10 year old grandchild £ 65 million ? WHY

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *