The majority of PL teams end the season within two places of where they were after 12 games.
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By Tony Attwood
We have wondered what the league table after 12 games tells us about the final table at the end of the season. And we started by asking: what sort of position were Arsenal in after 12 games in each of the previous ten seasons compared with now?
In the table below, each line across the page shows the Arsenal situation after most clubs had played 12 games. And I added a final column on the right to show how many points Arsenal were away from the top club in the league.
Of course, we all know before we start looking that this time a year ago, Arsenal were top. But what is interesting is not just how far from the top Arsenal have slipped at certain times in the ten seasons before this one, but also how different the number of points can be for the club at the top across different seasons.
The range of points Arsenal have had each season after 12 games is quite dramatic. Thus Arsenal had 31 points after 12 games last season. But in 2020 the total was just 13 points, and Arteta’s sacking was demanded. So the range after just 12 games from best to worst over 10 years is 18 points or six wins.
The final column shows how many points Arsenal were behind the top club at that moment. The range is nil to 17 points after 12 games.
| Pos | Year | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | Pts From 1st |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Arsenal 2023 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 27 | 1 |
| 1 | Arsenal 2022 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 31 | 0 |
| 5 | Arsenal 2021 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 20 | 9 |
| 15 | Arsenal 2020 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 | 12 |
| 6 | Arsenal 2019 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 17 | 17 |
| 5 | Arsenal 2018 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 24 | 8 |
| 6 | Arsenal 2017 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 22 | 12 |
| 4 | Arsenal 2016 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 12 | 13 | 25 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal 2015 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 26 | 0 |
| 8 | Arsenal 2014 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 17 | 15 |
| 1 | Arsenal 2013 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 28 | 0 |
So we can see that Arsenal has 27 points after 12 games this season, and only twice in the previous two campaigns has the club had more points.
But that made me wonder when Arsenal were in the top three after 12 games, where did the club end up at the end of the season?
In 2013/14 Arsenal were top of the league after 12 games, and yet at the season’s end we were fourth, seven points and 38 goals adrift (in terms of goal difference behind Manchester City).
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 102 | 37 | 65 | 86 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 38 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 41 | 27 | 79 |
| 1 | 2013/14 after 12 games | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 28 |
In 2016 Arsenal came second and were indeed second after 12 games.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester City | 38 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 68 | 36 | 32 | 81 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 36 | 29 | 71 |
| 2 | 2015/16 after 12 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 26 |
And last season you’ll remember…
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 1 | 2022 after 12 games |
12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 31 |
But what about other teams?
What we have done here is taken the league table on 29 October 2022 and compared it with where the teams ended up at the end of the season.
| Pos 29 Oct 2022 | Team | End | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 2 | -1 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1 | +1 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | -5 |
| 4 | Newcastle United | 4 | 0 |
| 5 | Manchester United | 3 | +2 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 12 | -6 |
| 7 | Fulham | 10 | -3 |
| 8 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 6 | +2 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 5 | +4 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 11 | -1 |
So the largest two drops are down five and six places (Tottenham and Chelsea) and the largest two rises are Liverpool (+4) and Brighton / Mancheseter United (+2)
And because that table is a bit squiffy, with a few teams having played one game more, we went back one more year to the table on 21 November 2021 when all the teams had indeed played 12 games. And this is an interesting season since it was the one in which Arsenal lost their first three league matches and the newspapers and broadcasters were all casting doubt on whether Arteta should be Arsenal’s manager (most saying he should not). (I know that sounds stupid but some were really pushing for Arteta to be sacked, after just three games).
| Pos 21/11/21 | Team | Pos End | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea | 3 | -2 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1 | +1 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 2 | +1 |
| 4 | West Ham United | 7 | -3 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 5 | 0 |
| 6 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 10 | -4 |
| 7 | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | +3 |
| 8 | Manchester United | 6 | +2 |
| 9 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 9 | 0 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 12 | -2 |
Here the largest two gains in terms of places, are Tottenham (+3) and Manchester United (+2) and the drops are Wolverhampton -4 and West Ham -3.
In short what the league table after 12 games tells us is where the clubs are going to be within six places. Of the 10 clubs in the top half of the league the highest drop was six places and the highest rise was four places.
But most telling of all is that across these two seasons the majority of teams (12 out of the 20 checked) ended up within two positions of where they were after 12 games. Which means that for most clubs currently in the top ten, they will end up either where they are now or at most one or two places different.
It rather takes the fun out of it doesn’t it? Here’s the current table for the top ten and where they might end up
| Pos | Team | Likely final place |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 1-3 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 1-4 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 1-5 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 2-6 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 3-7 |
| 6 | Manchester United | 4-8 |
| 7 | Newcastle United | 5-9 |
| 8 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 6-10 |
| 9 | West Ham United | 7-11 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 8-12 |
How many points will PGMOL have garnered?
Clearly, the Professional Gerry Mandering Organisation (PGMO) have taken more than a glance at Arsenal’s yellow card total, this far. Their thoughts have been ‘ how can we ensure Arsenal are in the ‘undisciplined rabble’ category once more ? The recent gathering of the PGMO at Stonehenge along with the attendant sacrifices led to this latest version of ‘The Tangled Webb Rules’.
Expect the usual uneven application of these subjective rules.
Does anyone keep an eye on these PGMO members for ‘unusual betting patterns just a thought.
Les,
I remember when Xhaka was being investigated after receiving a yellow card after “unusual betting patterns” were spotted. It’s odd that there was no investigation of the referee after this incident, particularly when the yellow card was issued by the referee.
Where PGMOL are concerned, logic seems to have left the building.
Seismic,
Good call : I have to admit having lost track of that one. There’s probably a need to tag the refs , so they can be pounced on if they go within 20 metres of William Hills.
Perhaps there’s also justification for big brother 24 hour surveillance cameras .
Anyway , tomorrow , I wouldn’t say no to a 1-0 win at Brentford.
Good prediction
Gambling and bribery – unlikely bedfellows unlikely bedfellows