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By Bulldog Drummond
Brighton and Hove (who of course play neither in Brighton nor in Hove, but actually in Falmer, whereupon I studied once upon a time) have a home record which is just about a match for Arsenal’s away record, save that Arsenal score more and concede fewer.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Brighton and Hove Albion home | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 27 |
| 1 | Arsenal away | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 11 | 23 | 30 |
Which could mean that we are in for a draw or maybe a 2-3 victory to Arsenal.
To narrow this down a bit we can look at the more recent results and here we see Brighton are undefeated in their last six at home and Arsenal have lost one of their last six away.
| Date | Match | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2023 | Fulham v Arsenal | L | 2-1 |
| 30 Jan 2024 | Nottingham Forest v Arsenal | W | 1-2 |
| 11 Feb 2024 | West Ham United v Arsenal | W | 0-6 |
| 17 Feb 2024 | Burnley v Arsenal | W | 0-5 |
| 04 Mar 2024 | Sheffield United v Arsenal | W | 0-6 |
| 31 Mar 2024 | Manchester City v Arsenal | D | 0-0 |
So again as we compare Brighton’s last six games at home and Arsenal’s last six games away the two clubs look very evenly matched except for the fact that Arsenal have a goal difference of +11 better than Brighton in this table.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Brighton H | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 | Arsenal A | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 3 | +17 | 13 |
But there is one final comparison of this nature that we can take a look at, which is the overall form in the last ten league games for each club. And this shows Arsenal are likely to have a lot more confidence than Brighton that they can do this thing…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 4 | +31 | 28 |
| 12 | Brighton | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
From this point, we can turn to the head-to-head, of which there have not been very many since it was only in recent times that Brighton and Hove made it into the top league. Arsenal have won 16 games between the two clubs, which is twice as many as Brighton have won. 5 of the games have been drawn.
Reducing this to the games from this decade Arsenal have won four of the Premier League games, Brighton and have won three and one has been drawn. Here are the details, all games being Premier League matches.
| Date | Match | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jun 2020 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal | L | 2-1 |
| 29 Dec 2020 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal | W | 0-1 |
| 23 May 2021 | Arsenal v Brighton and Hove Albion | W | 2-0 |
| 02 Oct 2021 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal | D | 0-0 |
| 09 Apr 2022 | Arsenal v Brighton and Hove Albion | L | 1-2 |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Arsenal | W | 2-4 |
| 14 May 2023 | Arsenal v Brighton and Hove Albion | L | 0-3 |
| 17 Dec 2023 | Arsenal v Brighton and Hove Albion | W | 2-0 |
All of which put together makes Arsenal favourites but with lessons to be learned from last season. For it was this game last season that caused the death knell to all hopes of winning the title.
Although Brighton had a spell in the top league in the early 1980s they are more conversant with games in the second and third tier. But they entered the Premier League for the first time in 2017/18, and from then on have come 15th, 17th, 15th, 16th, 9th, 6th. Clearly, they are on the upturn, this being the best spell in the club’s history.
Last season was their best finish in their history, and they made it to the FA Cup semi-final.
But if we conclude this little analysis of numbers what we can see is that there is a fair old distance between the two teams in the table.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 30 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 72 | 24 | 48 | 68 |
| 9 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 43 |
Brighton are 21 points off the relegation places, but also 24 points behind Arsenal. Arsenal have scored 21 more goals than Brighton and Brighton have conceded 22 more goals than Arsenal giving a goal difference of +43 fewer than Arsenal.
None of this means it is going to be an easy ride for Arsenal, nor a high-scoring game, but there is every chance that Arsenal should win this. And with Liverpool now creeping to within two goals of Arsenal’s tally, a few more in the goals scored column would not go amiss.
