Arsenal v Manchester United in the early hours: the preview and the team

 

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By Bulldog Drummond

Last summer Arsenal had 26 players leave the club.   Eight went for a fee, two went for free, and 16 went out on loan.

So when we read in the Guardian this summer that “Arsenal start to shed their academy graduates as the stakes are raised” we might perhaps expect more than the 26 of last year.

But in fact, what we find so far is that one player has left for a fee (Mika Biereth), three have gone out on loan, four have gone on a free and two have been released.  Of those going only Reuell Walters, Amario Cozier-Duberry, Omari Benjamin, and Arthur Okonkwo are academy graduates.  

So four academy graduates have gone.   Is that really what one might take from the headline that “Arsenal start to shed their academy graduates”?    Of course, there might be many more, but there are always some academy graduates who leave, and “Arsenal start to shed…” is not really a fair representation of the tiny number that have so far left.

As ever, it seems, a chance to knock Arsenal through giving a false impression is grabbed by a headline writer.  The Arsenal Academy squad is listed at 18 players which means 22% are leaving.  I suspect in many clubs the number is much higher – but the “start to shed…” headline is not used.

What we can be sure about is that Manchester United is going to spend money in an attempt to claw back some of the 29 points difference and 63 goal difference between themselves and Arsenal last season.  In fact they have already spent over £88m on Leny Yoro a defender from Lille, and £36.5m on Joshua Zirkzee a forward from Bologna.

For Manchester United, on the pitch they have so far lost to Rosenborg and beaten Rangers – Arsenal as you will know have already played Bournemouth.

For this game Arsenal will not have Kieran Tierney, Takehiro Tomiyasu (both recovering from injury) plus Aaron Ramsdale, Bukayo Saka, David Raya, Declan Rice and William Saliba who are still on holiday.

Which means that if they are fit Gabriel, Gabriel Martinelli and Kai Havertz could be used as substitutes.

Pain in the Arsenal give us a potential lineup of

Hein

White, Timber, Kiwior, Zinchenko

Partey, Jorginho, Odegaard

Nelson, Jesus, Trossard

Pain in the Arsenal tell us that “Arsenal have a great record against Man United” but as we have noted before that is really only true over the last 11 meetings of which Arsenal have won seven, lost two and drawn two.  Prior to that is was nothing like as jolly.

Sports Mole have a few variations and they offer us the prediction of a 1-1 draw.

Hein;

White, Timber, Kiwior, Zinchenko;

Thomas, Jorginho, Odegaard;

Viera, Jesus, Trossard

The match is live on Arsenal.com and details of the TV passes are given here.

Since both teams are technically away I thought I might take a peek at last season’s comparative away figures for the clubs.

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
2	Arsenal	19	13	3	3	43	13	30	42
6	Manchester United	19	8	3	8	26	30	-4	27

 

Perhaps the first thing we might notice is the 15 point gap between the two teams.  In fact only five teams (including of course Arsenal) won more away games than they lost last season.  As we can see here Manchester United were balanced with wins and defeats, but four goals down overall away from home.  Arsenal’s away form was better by all measurements.

This situation was similar to that of the season before (2022/23) although that time around, only four teams won more than they lost.  Manchester United’s form away improved in terms of goal difference between the two seasons, but only just.   Arsenal however improved in 2023/24 away from home, despite coming top of the away league in 2022/23.

2022/23

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	19	12	3	4	35	18	17	39
2	Manchester City	19	11	4	4	34	16	18	37
3	Newcastle United	19	8	8	3	32	19	13	32
4	Brighton and Hove Albion	19	8	4	7	35	32	3	28
5	Manchester United	19	8	3	8	22	33	-11	27

 

In fact we have to go right back to 2021/22 to find Manchester United with a better away form thanArsenal…

 

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
2	Manchester United away	19	12	7	0	35	16	19	43
7	Arsenal away	19	10	3	6	31	18	13	33

 

… and it is tables like this that show us the incredible transformation that Arteta has brought about in the club at all levels.

The general form of the last campaign (Arsenal 63 goals and 29 points better off) shows the enormous gap there was between the two clubs last season, although the media do insist on still calling Manchester United a big club.  In terms of results Arsenal were a big club last season, Manchesetr United at 8th out of 20 were above average.  Just.