- One unexpected signing: Arsenal are still moving in the right direction
- Why one bizarre draw and an unexpected signing doesn’t affect the view that Arsenal are moving in the right direction
The media always measures Arsenal against an abstract concept rather than comparing the situation now with the situation in the past, to get a measure of improvement or decline.
Of course comparing now with the past does not always give us but if we want to know if two wins and a draw, with a goal difference of +4, means the race is already over, it is worth seeing what has happened in other campaigns.
Obviously we are already two points behind Manchester City (who really should have an asterisk after their name to indicate that this finally is the season in which the result of the 100+ allegations of financial misdemeanours will be settled). (And atually come to that we could add a second * to indicate that they are currently suing the League, but we’ll leave that for later). So ManC** it is from now on.
But back to us, and we know Arsenal are already two points behind. So does that tell us anything?
A year ago (that is to say in 2023) Arsenal had also dropped two points behind Manchester City, but what is particularly interesting was that second in the league were West Ham United who by the end of the season had dropped to ninth. Another confirmation that early tables don’t mean much.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | West Ham United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
Going back one more year to 2022 Arsenal fired on all four cylinders and after three games were sitting alone at the top of the league with nine points, leaving ManC trailing on seven, the reverse of today. But look also at who was in third. It was Leeds Uuited with two wins and a draw, just as Arsenal have now. And at the end of the season Leeds United were 19th and relegated. They won only five more games all season. So maybe a good first three games isn’t really that much of an indication of times to come.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 3 | Leeds United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
One year before that, 31 August 2021, is undoubtedly a moment we would all like to forget, but it is part of the record, and indeed it is so interesting it is worth remembering just how the top of the league looked after three games…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Everton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
No sign of Manchester City because they were seventh in the league. No sign of Arsenal because after three games at the start of the 2021/2 season Arsenal were firmly bottom, with no points, no goals scored and nine conceded. Inevitably the media and bloggers were demanding not just Arteta’s dismissal, but his dismissal there and then on that day.
And what would have happened if the hordes had won, and the board caved in? Of course we can’t know, but I must say I have rather enjoyed these last two seasons, even though we “only” came second. In the 2021/2 season Arsenal finished fifth.
2020 is another interesting opening to a season for as you can see Leicester were top and Everton third at this stage.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Everton | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
So let us consider those two high flyers. Leicester finished fifth that season, eighth the following season, and 18th the season after, which meant relegation.
Liverpool the champions of 2019/20 have since finished 3rd, 2nd, 5th and 3rd.
Everton like Liverpool having won their opening three games of 2020/21, have since actually not finished in the top ten places nr with a positive goal difference in any of the past five seasons, and look as if they might emulate that statistic once more this season.
You might indeed recall that when Everton were threatened with a big points deduction by the league, a lot of Everton supporters suggested that there was a conspiracy against Everton by the rest of the league. I tried to engage some of them in a discussion as to the nature of the conspiracy and why it was specifically being waged against Everton, but was never able to understand the answers to that point. But if there were a conspiracy then I suppose those same Everton supporters are claiming it is going on – hence their position today after three games.
What all this tells us is that the top of the league after three games gives some indication of what might happen in the rest of the season and thereafter, but it is really only an indication and can quite often be of little use in seeing what the later tables look like, as Leicester and Everton show.
Of course seven points for Arsenal is better than four points to Tottenham Hots, or three for Manchester Utd, or one point for Newcastle, but none of this means that Newcastle will be relegated. Although I rather suspect Everton could go down, after three straight defeats and 10 goals conceded. I’ll try and remember to come to these predictions at the end of the season.
There just may be some hope for Everton. I remember some seasons ago when a team at the beginning of it’s project had no wins after 3 matches, 9 goals conceded and bottom of the league. They finished 5th missing the champions league by a single point or so!!