The latest episode of the series celebrating 100 years of Herbert Chapman at Arsenal is now published on the Arsenal History Site, along with an index to all the previous episodes.
By Bulldog Drummond
- Newcastle v Arsenal, and a ray of hope is spotted
- Arsenal’s inferiority complex: if we did have one, it’s now long since gone
Simon Hooper is the referee tonight, so let’s see what we have got…. And as ever in our comparisons we only look at referees who have overseen 10 or more games in the PL this season, to avoid getting statistics that are compromised by only being related to one or two games.
And I am sorry to say from the start that Simon Hooper is a home referee. Not the most home-biased referee of them all, but pretty much near the top.
The most home-biased referee of them all is of course Robert Jones, for whom almost two thirds of the games he oversees are home wins – a figure way above the average for the Premier League as a whole. Jones sees an astonishing 63.6% home wins in his matches this season, while Hooper is on a mere 52%. But considering that Jarred Gillett sees 42.9% of his games as home wins, this is still pretty much over the top.
And we can see this further by thinking of the referees who we might have had. Paul Tierney (one of two referees on 25 games this season so far) sees 44% of his games as away wins. Michael Oliver sees 41.7% away wins.
But for Jones (and you might want to sit down at this point if you are not already) only 13.6% of his games have ended as away wins. In real figures that is three games out of 22!!!
In short, in giving the match to Jones, PGMO have ensured that Arsenal’s chances of winning are now 13.6% (given that a draw will also give the tie to Newcastle.
Of course, what is so crazy is that there is this difference in percentages between referees. Which is not to say that I think each referee should be seeing the same percentage home wins, away wins and draws; not at all.
But we know from all the crowd research done during and after the pandemic, referees can be strongly influenced by the crowds (and just in case you missed all the previous discussions, I’ll summarise the research here.)
A number of Premier League referees were invited by researchers from the University of London (against which I won’t hear a word since that’s where I got my research degree) to watch matches on screens, wearing headphones which blocked out all external noise. Half the referees heard the actual crowd noise from the games and half had silence.
Each time there was a contentious event such as a possible foul, the recording was stopped and the referee had to indicate an offence or no offence. The referees with the crowd noise always showed a bias toward the home crowd.
But since the research was published some referees, realising their unconscious bias, have moved away from their home bias. But because there seems to be no proper training programme going on with referees and since PGMO dare not do anything that suggests that all is not perfect with referees, no action has been taken. So we now have referees who see lots of home wins, like Hooper on 52% home wins and Jones on almost 64%, while we have others who see high numbers of away wins like Gillett on almost 48% and Tierney on 44%.
Of course, it should not be like this but it is, and because PGMO will do absolutely nothing about it, they are happy to have fan discussions concerning whether referee X is biased against Arsenal or not. The fact is there might be some bias, but the main problem is that some referees are home refs, and some are away refs.
So I think Arsenal can give up on this game, and indeed they might as well give some players a bit of a rest since the 0-2 deficit is big enough anyway, but with a home referee, we are probably scuppered before we start
Which is a shame because Arsenal away have been performing better than Newcastle at home overall this season. Arsenal have lost twice away, while Newcastle have lost four times at home. Overall Arsenal have a four goal better goal difference than Newcastle.
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Newcastle United home | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Arsenal away | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 22 |
But if we are seriously looking for possible positive factors we could try this. Since Newcastle beat Arsenal in the League Cup semi-final first leg at Arsenal Stadium, Newcastle have won three and lost two. But those wins have been against the mighty Bromley (16th in League Two) by 3-1 at home, the mightier Wolverhampton (17th in the PL), and the… well, you get the idea, Southampton (bottom of the PL).
They have lost 1-4 at home to Bournemouth (7th in the League and one place below Newcastle) and 1-3 at home to Fulham (9th in the League).
So maybe, just maybe, the Newc home form is so bad (two defeats in the last two games against mid-range clubs) that even with the support of a home-team loving referee, which they certainly will have tonight, Arsenal might just do it, if the referee takes the view that there is really, only so much he can do, to keep the home fans happy.
More anon..
