Why are Arsenal’s penalty stats so different from all the other top clubs?

 

 

 

By Tony Attwood

The Great Penalty Scandal: the story so far (if you have not read the series and want to catch up, I’d suggest starting with the top article here and work your way down).

• Penalties for and against. Are Arsenal being hard done by?
• Penalties for and against Arsenal. The Mike Riley factor
• Fouls and cards: are Arsenal being hard done by?
• Refs give far more penalties against Arsenal than other clubs: but why?

In this series, we have been unravelling something that you won’t find reported (as far as I am aware) in any newspaper, or on any blog.  But it is not the first time this has happened, so we’re used to this. 

Our point is simple: that Arsenal’s penalty numbers are radically different from those of the other top clubs, and looking at other issues we can find no explanation for this.

Nitram and Mike Fowler have both investigated this issue from separate angles and come up with the same conclusion: this is a real situation, not a statistical quirk, and it started with the arrival of Mike Riley at PGMO.

But as you may know, Untold likes investigating statistics, so since getting this data I have been trying to find explanations for why Arsenal, alone out of the top clubs, get fewer penalties awarded in their favour, than they have awarded against them.

Obviously, the only legitimate explanation within the normal rules of the game has to be that Arsenal commit more fouls than other clubs in the penalty area.  So I have taken data from Who Scored and you can see their data here.  I have separated out the key issues below.

This season, in terms of how often each team is being fouled by the opposition, Arsenal are mid-table.  The club is right in the middle for how many times it is fouled.  When it comes to fouls committed by Arsenal, the club is eighth in the league.

Last season, however, Arsenal were 17th in the league table for committing fouls and 11th for being fouled.

In 2022/23 Arsenal were actually 19th in the league for fouls committed, but were fourth in the league for the number of fouls that they (Arsenal) had committed against them.    From which, however, we would assume that Arsenal, along with the other top six clubs, should be getting an above-average number of penalties in their favour, and a below-average number of penalties awarded against them. 

Which makes all this seem very strange.

And that is not all, for here is something else that makes it all even weirder.  This is the table from WhoScored which shows the “card situations” for Arsenal and other key teams this season.   I should add that there is another column in the raw data, that for dives, but that is shown at zero throughout, so I’ve left it out.  For once the “other” column is the most interesting!   

In the whole of last season, Arsenal got 22 cards for “other” reasons and were 12th in the “other reasons” chart.  Now this season, they are top, and I would like to know why.  It seems a reasonable question, but so far, no one can tell me what “other” is all about, nor how Arsenal have shot up this chart.  This might not have anything to do with the penalty issue, but it is still a mystery – and really in this day of analyses and statistics, we really shouldn’t be talking about something being “a bit of a mystery”.

 

	Team	Fouls	Unprofessional	Other
1	Southampton	58	2	18
2	Ipswich	57	6	13
3	Leicester City	52	1	11
4	Bournemouth	52	5	18
5	West Ham	48	3	13
6	Aston Villa	47	2	10
7	Liverpool	47	3	7
8	Nottingham Forest	45	6	13
9	Crystal Palace	45	0	14
10	Chelsea	43	8	30
11	Fulham	43	4	16
12	Manchester United	42	6	18
13	Tottenham	41	5	8
14	Wolves	41	4	18
15	Brighton	41	4	18
16	Everton	39	4	19
17	Arsenal	36	2	25
18	Manchester City	35	4	11
19	Newcastle	34	3	16
20	Brentford	28	1	12

 

So you might wonder what the “other” column is all about – because this is where Arsenal are indeed top of the league.  25 cards for “other” reasons.  Not for fouls, not for dives, and not for unprofessional conduct, but for something untold and unknown.

Although let’s be fair, Arsenal are not top in this section, but they are second to Chelsea.

Now I have written to WhoScored to ask what this column is all about, and they haven’t replied – which is unusual for them, normally they come back very quickly and are incredibly helpful, so I am wondering if maybe they don’t know either.

But this could be (and I stress COULD BE) the explanation – if only we could find out what “other” actually means.

Now that is not all, but it is a big enough issue for now – in fact it is an enormous issue.   Arsenal, as our previous articles have shown, are getting fewer penalties in their favour, but having more penalties against them, than all other top six clubs.   It hasn’t been like this in past seasons, and the level of Arsenal tackling remains average or below.

So what’s going on?.