By Tony Attwood
I see that it is sometimes being said that the Premier League this year is not like any other year … and that there has never been such a gap between first and second before. But although the gap between Liverpool and Arsenal this season is not exactly common number it is far from being unique.
Arsenal have 68 points with two to play, and as most of us remember, in 2015/16 Arsenal came second with 71 points. And indeed in 2020/21 Manchester U, (beloved club of the scribblers until the club cut the amount the journos could drink for free at matches and press conferences) came second with 74 points. 74 points is the maximum number Arsenal could get this season. 71points certainly seems achievable since we have a game to come against Southampton as one of the two matches left. But is this an exceptionally low number of points as the media proclaim?
Of course not. In 2016 Arsenal came second with 71 points. In 2021 Man U came second with 74 points. This season Arsenal will end up with anything between 68 and 74 points. Hardly in the territory of unknown points totals.
Ah, but the nay-sayers say, the gap is bigger this time. Liverpool are further ahead.
But in fact the current gap of 15 points between the top two is certainly not the largest there have been although of course at this stage we must admit that if Liverpool win their last two and Arsenal lose them the gap could get as wide as 21 points, which would be the biggest gap ever. But that seems unlikely, so let’s look at some of the bigger gaps of recent times…
19 Points – Manchester City (2017-18)
18 Points – Manchester United (1999-00)
18 Points – Liverpool (2019-20)
12 Points – Chelsea (2004-05)
12 Points – Manchester City (2020-21)
So if both clubs win their remaining two games the distance will remain at 15 points, only the fourth biggest in the history of the Premier League. But if Arsenal only win one of those games, but Liverpool win both then the gap of course would be 18 points. Still not the biggest but it takes Liverpool into second spot. Indeed only two wins for Liverpool (giving them 89 points) and two defeats for Arsenal and nothing better than two draws for Newcastle would give a gap of 21 points which would be the record. In short, they aren’t further ahead of the rest than we’ve ever seen before.
Liverpool could make it to 89 points, a total which has been equalled or exceeded in seven of the last eight years, which shows two things. One is that the team might not be quite as good as some suggest they are, (which is always a good sign) and the other is that there is no certainty that they can continue at that level.
Indeed, many of those who are calling for a change of manager at Arsenal choose to forget that last season, Arsenal got 89 points in coming second – and 89 is the maximum Liverpool can get this season. Are Liverpool supporters calling for a new manager? No, of course not; the media focus their jibes on Arsenal and some fans take up their calls, that’s all.
What is more, last season Arsenal got a goal difference of plus 62. To equal that, Liverpool would not only have to win their last two games, but win them by an average of 8-0 just to equal Arsenal’s goal difference.
So quite clearly, Arsenal last season were better than Liverpool this season, since the best Liverpool can do is equal Arsenal’s points tally this year. As we have been saying all the way through, Arsenal have not greatly declined, and Arteta has not “lost it” as a manager, but rather Arsenal have suffered an extraordinary level of injuries, including the decimation of the whole part of the team at once.
Having the team fit again, and without this constant barrage of injuries, I have no doubt would take Arsenal back to the 89-point level – or more.
But there is still the problem of Manchester City’s finances. Manchester City have been charged with breaking financial fair play rules over a nine-year period, from 2009 to 2018. They have also been charged with failing to cooperate with Premier League investigations into their finances.
As Sky recently pointed out, “When the Premier League charged City in 2023, its press release detailed alleged rules breaches that added up to 115 in number, but it is believed that the actual number is 130.”
The charges were brought in February 2023 over four years since the alleged events. Then City effectively delayed the start of the hearings for another 19 months. The hearings finished on 6 December last, over five months ago and we still don’t have a result.
Why not? And this is important because of the implications of the result since if City are found guilty, will that affect all the trophies they won during the cheating years?
And if they are guilty, what punishment could be meted out? I’ve mused on this before, but I am starting to think this is the whole problem: not the guilt, but the punishment. I’ll come back to this shortly.
Are Liverpool this season better than Arsenal last season? – No
Are Liverpool this season better than Arsenal this season? – Also No.
They are undoubtedly a very good team, but we were unlucky to draw twice with them, not forgetting the Anthony Taylor contribution in both fixtures.
They have had fewer injuries, spectacularly more penalties for and fewer against – (Konate and Van Dyjk have immunity from being penalised in the box and for red card offences. If Salah had been injured for half as many games as Saka, Odegaard and Havertz , they would be nowhere near top of the league.
As a postscript to events at Arsenal, I wonder how Martin Odegaard’s shirt came to be torn open.
If a Liverpool shirt had had to be replaced, I am sure that there would have been no end of comments from Carragher, Neville and co. plus demands for a VAR review.