Will Arsenal make the Champions League next season? The figures say yes.

 

 

• • Liverpool v Arsenal: how one referee sees so many more penalties than another
  • Just how many more injuries has Arsenal had than any other team this season?

By Tony Attwood

Apparently the booing of the multi-named Trent character was Arsenal’s fault, because, according to the media “Had Liverpool and Arsenal been playing for the league, the heckling of Trent Alexander-Arnold does not happen.”  But then everything is Arsenal’s fault.

But with the Champions League out of the way – although not in the way we wanted – Arsenal are free to play for the most important thing left: coming second.

TechnicallyArsenal could still come sixth in the league (although not seventh, unless Forest win and knock up a goal difference of +12 in their last two games and Arsenal lose both with a goal difference of -11.  Rather unlikely, I’d say, so in effect sixth is Arsenal’s worst possible position, assuming they lose both remaining games and stay on 68 points and Newcastle, ManC, Chelsea and Villa all win both.

 

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	36	25	8	3	83	37	46	83
2	Arsenal	36	18	14	4	66	33	33	68
3	Newcastle United	36	20	6	10	68	45	23	66
4	Manchester City	36	19	8	9	67	43	24	65
5	Chelsea	36	18	9	9	62	43	19	63
6	Aston Villa	36	18	9	9	56	49	7	63

.

However there is one game involving two of these teams playing each other and wouldn’t you know it, it is Arsenal v Newcastle – our next game.   So a win for Arsenal there would mean Newcastle could not overtake Arsenal.

Here are the relevant games

• Aston Villa v Tottenham Hots
• Chelsea v Manchester Utd
• Arsenal v Newcastle United
• Manchester City v AFC Bournemouth
• Fulham v Manchester City
• Manchester Utd v Aston Villa
• Newcastle United v Everton
• Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
• Southampton v Arsenal

And that confirms the only game in which two of the teams chasing the Champions League places have to play each other is in fact Arsenal v Newcastle on Sunday 18th.   Forest are of course still hoping for the other cup thing which Tottenham are so keen on this year. 

Our other game is away to Southampton, and that looks a lot easier.  A win in that game would mean that Arsenal could only be overtaken by Newcastle on points and Manchester City on goal difference (if their GD went up by five and Arsenal’s down by five, or something akin to that).

So of course nothing is certain but things look very hopeful for Arsenal and it would take two defeats for Arsenal by big scores and all the other clubs winning both their games for Arsenal not to make the Champions League.   Of course everything is possible, but really not very likely.

Besides I have argued that inevitably, Arsenal’s form in the league suffered somewhat as we approached the semi-finals of the Champions League, and although one might say it should not have happened, it was still a possible explanation.  But the second half against Liverpool showed that this can be overcome.   Although that last six games table is looking a little frustrating.

 

Last six games showing clubs chasing Champs League places

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Aston Villa	6	5	0	1	12	4	+8	15
2	Manchester C	6	4	2	0	10	3	+7	14
4	Newcastle United	6	4	1	1	16	6	+10	13
6	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	8	6	+2	11
11	Arsenal	6	1	4	1	11	8	+3	7

 

So Arsenal really do have to show the form of yesterday’s second half in their game against Newcastle, and then do exactly what is expected of them against Southampton.  But as I say, on the other hand a win in that game against Southampton would give Arsenal a points tally of 71 irrespective of the Newcastle game.   

But by way of light relief now take a look at the position of the mighty Manchester United and the great pretenders Tottenham Hots in the last six games.   In fact Manchester United are currently doing worse than Leicester City, while Tottenham Hots are just only above Leicester City in the last six game table, by having a one goal less worse goal difference (if you see what I mean).

Now of course I know these clubs have an excuse in that they are playing each other in Bilbao in the Europa League final (tickets are, it seems, still available) but even so, for Manchester United to be currently performing worse than relegated Leicester is quite something to reflect on in the tedious summer months to come when Arsenal will be chasing every player on the planet and not signing any of them because they are too mean, the manager is on holiday, the board wouldn’t give approval, Arsenal asked for an extra fitness test while others moved in… well, you know.  You read it every summer.