By Jack Beam

How Arsenal’s Playing Style Challenges Legacy Analytics

Arsenal’s rise under Mikel Arteta has not only brought them back among the Premier League’s elite, but it has also created a new puzzle for traditional football analytics. As Arsenal continued to evolve tactically, especially during the 2024-2025 season, the limitations of legacy analytics models were clearly evident, as they have been slow to adapt to a more fluid version of modern football. Style of play is one area where prediction markets can struggle, as those lineups are often predicted based on the historical performance of individual players and their fixed roles.

A New Era of Tactical Fluidity

Arsenal, under Arteta’s leadership, exemplifies a strategic adaptability. Rather than trying to hold their formation, Arsenal’s players switch positions and adapt their functions to the match situation. Given that, wingers like Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli will often drift inside while full-backs overlap or even move into midfield. With the likes of Declan Rice and Martin Ødegaard, they have players who run free and create space for others, making up the dynamic of an unpredictable Arsenal attack.

This flexibility also gives Arsenal the option to change formations multiple times in the same game. At times, they build up as a 3-2-5, and at others defend compactly as a 4-4-2. Players must practice these sequences, which rely on their intelligence and agility. This improvisational style wreaks havoc on legacy analytics, which is built on static player data. So, the prediction of outcomes or player contributions becomes incredibly difficult.

Arsenal Players Perform the Unthinkable

A major source of disruption to old-school analytics is the presence of unusual Arsenal players who do not conform to traditional templates. Look at someone like Kai Havertz as an example. He can act as a false nine now and again, as a midfield presence at times, and constantly drifts wide to link with teammates. Trossard can play as a winger, attacking midfielder, or second striker. Also, both Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori are nominal defenders, but they often push into midfield to overload or kickstart attacks.

These multi-functional players blur the lines between positions, making it difficult for analytics models to assign them fixed roles or expected contributions. Traditional metrics like “expected goals” or “touches in the final third” may not fully capture the impact of a player who spends half the game as a defender and the other half as a playmaker.

What This Means for Sportsbook Predictions

The rise of Arsenal’s dynamic approach highlights the need for style-of-play elements in sportsbook forecasts. Punters and bookmakers focusing only on legacy analytics will overlook the subtle impressions of how Arsenal’s fluid tactics and unique player roles can shift the scales of a game. Arsenal’s ability to press high and win the ball in advanced areas results in more chaotic goalscoring opportunities, while their defensive rotations can neutralize even the most organized attacks.

With this new landscape comes the need for sportsbooks and analysts to adapt as well, using in-game tactical data and recognising the contribution of those highly skilled, unorthodox players.

Takeaways

Arsenal’s contemporary style of playis not only creating wins—it’s prompting a re-examination of how football is analyzed and predicted. A squad made of unusual, and sometimes odd, Arsenal players and a system built on fluidity and adaptability can elevate the Gunners’ tactical innovation to new levels, bending the underlying principles of legacy metrics and sportsbook prediction in new directions.