Should it have been us out there last night? Why did Arsenal lose to PSG

 

 

• The 12 players who should feature in every Arsenal game next season
• Will there ever be an end to the clubs owned by the mega-rich winning everything?

By Nitram

I don’t know about anyone else, but I found watching last nights Champions League final incredibly frustrating. We should of been there. We deserved to be there. Why do I think that? I think that because I truly believe across the two legs of the semi-final we were the better team.

Now I know you can’t just say that. If you are going to make such a bold statement you need to back it up. So, to back it up I’ve taken a look at the statistics. But statistics by themselves are not enough. You need context. So, to give the numbers the context required I’ve not only looked at how Arsenal performed against PSG, but I’ve also looked at how both Aston Villa and Liverpool performed against them as well. Who gave PSG the toughest game? Was it Arsenal? Did Villa or Liverpool also deserve to beat them?

Of course, at the end of the day, it’s all pretty academic as we all lost. But, even if you don’t believe that the following supports my proposition that we deserved to have beaten PSG, the least it does is demonstrate just how well we performed against that side that are now the best team in Europe, possibly the World.

When it comes to statistics, of course goals are THE most important stat, but the other statistics can still tell you an awful lot about the match such as how the teams actually played.  Did they do everything but score? Did they concede stupid goals? Were they unlucky? Were they lucky?

Indeed lots of matches could go either way but for a brilliant strike, or a brilliant save, for there more to a performance than just the goals. That’s why we have so many statistical sites. They are indicative. They are important. Often as not, they can tell us even more about a team or a player, than the goals. Did they play well overall? Did they deserve more, or less than they got out of the match? That’s what these statistics can tell you. So, to dismiss them is folly.

So, what I have done is look at the main statistics from the three matches involving the British Clubs. Those vital statistics are:

• Goals
• Xg
• Possession
• Shots
• Shots O/T
• Big Chances

I will do the games in the order that the British teams were eliminated. I have combined the overall statistics of the two legs:

LIVERPOOL V PSG

	Liverpool	PSG
Goals	1	2
Xg	1.86	4.45
Possession	37%	63%
Shots	21	48
Shots on target	4	13
Big chances	4	7

 

ASTON VILLA V PSG

 

	Aston Villa	PSG
Goals	3	6.0
Xg	2.79	3.64
Possession	30%	70%
Shots	24	43
Shots on target	11	17
Big chances	8	4

 

ARSENAL V PSG

	Arsenal	PSG
Goals	1	3
Xg	4.53	2.9
Possession	51%	49%
Shots	29	22
Shots on target	9	10
Big chances	7	4

 

So, they are the basic stats, and yes, we know we all lost. But according to the rest of the statistics who gave PSG the toughest time over the two legs? Lets go through each piece of data one at a time and try to see what it tells us.

XG

Out of the three of us, Arsenal were the only team to get a higher Xg than PSG, out performing them by 4.53 to 2.9. That is quite significant. Villa’s negative 2.79 to 3.64 isn’t too bad, but Liverpool’s 1.86 compared to PSG’s 4.45 suggests they were fortunate to only get a 2-1 beating over the 2 legs.

POSSESSION

Again, out of the thre of us, Arsenal were the only team to have more possession than PSG (51% to 49%)  Both Villa and Liverpool were completely dominated in this regard (Average 65% to 35%).

SHOTS

Yet again, Arsenal were the only team out of the three to out perform PSG with our 29 shots to PSG’s 22. Yet again both Villa and Liverpool were totally dominated with Villa’s 24 to PSG’s 43 and Liverpool’s 21 to PSG’s 48 exposing just how dominated they were.

Now at this point, I think it’s worth doing a little appraisal of what these three parameters tell us. Or more accurately, what I think they tell us. And what I think they tell us is that we actually dominated PSG. Or put another way, we outplayed PSG. We had more possession than them (51% to 49%) We had more shots than them (29 to 22) We had better chances than them (4.53Xg to 2.9Xg). Villa and Liverpool were utterly dominated in all three of these parameters. They were in reality completely out-played. They both only had a third of the possession. Faced (in Villa’s case almost) twice as many shots as they had, and had inferior Xg’s. In Liverpool’s case much inferior.

So where did it all go wrong for us? Was it:

SHOTS ON TARGET

Possibly. But when you look closer, not really.

Villas ratio of 11 from 24 (46%) is the best of the three, and is by coincidence the Premier League’s average ratio. Arsenal’s nine from 29 (31%) could definitely of been better, but it actually compares very favourably with Liverpool and their star strikers four from 21 (19%). So, as much as we would have liked to hit the target more often than that, it is not really that unusual, or indeed that big an issue as I will show.

To give this some perspective let’s have a look at PSG’s efficiency. Against Villa and Liverpool their shots to shots on-target ratio averaged at just 32%

Last night in a performance that has been widely praised as one of the best in a Champions league final, their shots to shots on-target ratio was just 35%. Neither were a million miles above Arsenals. That sort of efficiency in front of goal is, as often as not, enough to win you football matches.

So it isn’t that. What was more of a problem for us was PSG’s incredible efficiency AGAINST US. From their 22 efforts on goal they managed to hit the target 10 times (45%). that is a remarkable stat, and incredibly unfortunate for us.

So, no, the amount of shots we managed on target wasn’t the problem. The problem was their goalkeeper chose to have two of the best games of his life against us, A notion supported by the fact he was the POTM in both encounters, keeping us down to one goal from nine attempts on target and an Xg of 4.53. That is remarkable. On the other hand, PSG’s three goals is exactly what they would expect from an Xg of 2.9.

Villa scored three from an Xg of 2.79, about right. Liverpool one from an Xg of 1.86, under what they should have expected.  But PSG with two from an Xg of 4.45 against them, was even further under.

BIG CHANCES

Well in this parameter both Arsenal and Villa can count themselves a little unlucky, with Villa having eight Big Chances to PSG’s four, and Arsenal having seven to PSG’s four .Liverpool, yet again were really nowhere to be seen with a 4/7 big chances ratio in favour of PSG.

As such I don’t see either of those parameters as the reason we lost to PSG either. So why did we lose?

Well that’s easy: Gianluigi Donnarumma.