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By Tony Attwood
I’m always desperately nervous about Arsenal players playing for their country – especially England – because so often it seems they do the stuff for their country but come back carrying an injury, making it harder for the club that actually pays their wages to make use of their talents. Fortunately, last night seemed an exception with the headlines such as “Noni Madueke leads five-star England’s rout” reflecting our man on the wing’s role in all of this. And with Declan Rice being, well, Declan Rice, I was rather pleased all round.
So with a headline of, “The stars were Morgan Rogers and Noni Madueke,” and no postscript about “hopefully his injury is not too serious” which is what we normally read (I am sure that is dictated by the England press officer) before finding out he’s out for three months, maybe we can rest easy.
The next game is on Saturday at home to Nottingham Forest, who seem recently to have committed hari-kari, making one wonder if Edu wouldn’t have been much better off staying with us, rather than trotting off to the Midlands.
But the forthcoming schedule really does show us how valuable all that summer transfer activity is going to be to the club, for after Forest and Athletic Club, it is ManC at home. Although maybe that is not such a threat since they are currently 13th.
Currently, as you will know, we are third, and if you have been paying attentioin you will also know that we have been doing some exploring of the idea that the positioins after a small number of games can actually indicate where the clubs will end up at the end of the season.
Here’s the current top five just to remind you, after all the excitement of the international break (!)
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Everton | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
So what are the chances of those five being in the top five at the end of the season?
Last season the top five after three games were, as you can see from the final column, four of the five were in the top five come the end of the season. Only Brighton and Hove slipped out…
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts | End | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| 3 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| 4 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 5 | Newcastle United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
I won’t bore you with endless league tables from the past but you might like to know that in the season before that, 2023/24 after three games, three of the the top four places were occupied by clubs that came first second and third. Manchester City won the league and were top after three games. Arsenal came second in the league and were fourth after three games, and Liverpool came third in the league and were second after three games. It’s really not as exciting as we all thought!
Where there is a lot of jumping around in positions is in the mid to lower reaches of the league, with clubs like Tottenham who can zoom up and down with no rhyme or reason. So overall, as we return to thinking about the football that really matters, it is more than likely that the top three now (Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal) will all be in the top four at the end of the season, and quite possibly the top three at the end, although not necessarily in that order.
Of course, such observations do make a bit of a nonsense of all this self-proclaimed chatter about this being the toughest league in the world. For in the last seven seasons only five different teams have appeared in the 21 top-3 places available over those years. They are
- Manchester City (7)
- Liverpool (6)
- Arsenal (3)
- Manchester United (3)
- Chelsea (2)
The nearest challenger looks like Newcastle United who have come fourth, seventh, and fifth in the last three years, but currently sit 17th in the league this season without a win in their first three games. Mind you, they have been playing some of the bigger teams in their opening games, (Tottenham, Aston Vill and Liverpool), so they might pick up a bit.
But no, overall we can say that it is more than likely that the top three today will all be in the top four come the end of the season, (if not the top three), and will be joined in the top four by one of Chelsea or Newcastle.
So now that’s sorted we can enjoy the football..
