Arsenal v Chelsea: a game where home advantage really ought to count

 

 

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By Tony Attwood

And so, following week after week of a weekend game followed by the mid-week affair, we’ve had a whole week off, and really, it seems like a very long time since we could do a match preview.  But here we are, and it is Arsenal v Chelsea on Sunday at 4.30pm.  It is of course on TV in the UK, and quite probably the rest of the world as well – or at least the rest of the world that has any interest in English football.

So what do we know?    The media, en masse, are making up tales of Arsenal’s dirty tricks, which it appears they want to argue are all that has taken Arsenal to the top.  I don’t think it is worth arguing against any of them, because they are all so fanciful – you can find them if you wish, but if you want something fractionally more balanced than the rest, there is one in the Guardian online today

And actually the Telegraph has anamusing headline too.  The article is behind a paywall, but the heading is worthy of a laugh: Tudor warns Spurs players not to ‘cry’ over shock-and-awe methods.     “Shock and awe methods”?   Tottenham?

 

So yes, we can see that Arsenal are the second-best team at home and Chelsea, the second-best team away.  But that doesn’t tell the full story.   Arsenal are the second best team at home because they have played fewer home games than Manchester C and Chelsea are the second best away team, but in being so, are actually ten points behind Arsenal’s home record.

More to the point, perhaps Arsenal have scored six more goals at home thann Cheslea have away and conceded seven fewer in that regard, giving Arsenal the 13 better goal difference over the season.  And yes, here we see Chelsea outdoing Arsenal in terms of wins, although again not in terms of goals

 

Premier League Form (Last 6)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Manchester Utd	6	5	1	0	12	5	+7	16
2	Chelsea	6	4	2	0	14	7	+7	14
3	Manchester City	6	4	1	1	11	6	+5	13
4	AFC Bournemouth	6	3	3	0	9	5	+4	12
5	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	16	7	+9	11

 

Although there is a little twist in the tail here because the last two league games for Chelsea have not looked utterly convincing.  Both were at home and both were draws: 2-2 against Leeds and 1-1 against Burnley.  Arsenal, it is true, have had a defeat in the last six – to Manchester United – and unsatisfying draws against Brentford and Wolverhampton, but the last game – that 1-4 away thrashing of the club down the road, must have restored quite a bit of confidence.

The fact is of course, no one on either side is going to under-estimate the other, and each will be aware of the number of goals scored by the other in the last half dozen matches (16 by Arsenal and 14 by Chelsea).

But perhaps there might be a bit of awareness of  Chelsea’s run at the end of last year and the start of 2026 in which they went through nine consecutive league games in which they won one, drew five and lost three.

So the reality is both teams can be vulnerable but can also go on winning runs.

Overall, Arsenal have had the better of Cheslea winning 87 of the encounters against 66 defeats with 61 draws.  But of late, things have been going Arsenal’s way when it comes to playing Chelsea.  For in the last ten games between the two sides (which takes us back to 2022), Chelsea have not won a single game.  Arsenal have won eight and two have been draws. 

And most particularly, we will remember the last two matches in the semi-final of the League Cup in which Arsenal won both at home and away, leading us of course, to the League Cup final    (Although the final is still a little way off (March 22), so we will come back to that a little later.)