By Tony Attwood
The current situation in the Premier League is not, as some would have it, that clubs are now simply “using more data.” Rather they are using the data in a much more sophisticated way than before.
The way I see it, the PL has changed because clubs are organising their teams differently. For clubs are evolving how they play, the likes of which they have never employed before. And to do this clubs are hiring recruitment analysts, data scientists, and performance analysts.
Now such people are to be found in many if not most large companies in other fields of work. Football however has always been a little slow on picking up on this approach, often because those employed in senior roles are ex-players who themselves never studied managing and selecting people. They might dismiss the new statistical approaches as “clever-clever” ideas that don’t work like an old fashioned number 9 changing at defences.
Of course I don’t know exactly what Mikel Arteta and his management team get up to, but this is the approach I think he has used from day one, and I believe he learned it in the management team at Manchester City. Of course what ManC also then had was the money to bring in the players who could deliver exactly what the statistical models showed was needed, so they could buy the players to fit their particular needs. And ManC had the finances to do that, as the League sat back and allowed them to buy whatever players they wanted.
Now of course other clubs are catching up – ranging from Arsenal where Arteta brought with him the knowledge of what was needed to build a team that could play in a particular way, and hence win the league, through to Chelsea who had the money but not the technical understanding of how the entire game could be changed.
But although this approach has been so successful at Arsenal and indeed previously had brought unprecedented success for ManC many club directors still don’t believe in these “clever-clever” “new-fangled” approaches, adopting instead the old “I think I know what a good footballer looks like” approach… Hence they spend, don’t succeed, sack the manager, and start again.
Thus clubs like Tottenham despite having all that data still go on thinking they can hire a manager and buy the best players, and win the league. But that’s not how it goes any more..
Of course part of the problem is that there are always people around saying “use this new method, it delivers better results,” and many of them have no idea what they are talking about. So club owners can justify staying with the old proven ways of working.
But this is where Arsenal came good by having owners who had seen how sporting success could be created through an approach that was quite different from the approaches used in the Premier League.
Of course one of the big problems with the traditional system of recruitment and development of play for Premier League clubs was the notion of having one top scorer in a team that can go and win the Premier League. The existence of Haaland with 27 goals suggests this idea is still valid.
But such top scoring players are getting harder and harder to find, not least because in many cases their skill can be nullified by man-marking them out of the game. Worse, there are very few of these players and every top club in Europe is looking for them.
So now what some clubs are doing is looking for goal scorers who are less obvious. Thus last season Arsenal had a top scorer who scored 14 league goals – the seventh highest in the league, which doesn’t sound very good. Except Arsenal were the second highest scorers of goals in the Premier League last season – without a Haaland type player.
So instead of saying “we need a top goal scorer” Arsenal looked to nurture a player who can score a fair number, but who on the pitch will draws defenders out so that others can also score. And it turned out to be more effective.
In short some clubs are still looking at the game as it existed 20 years ago, in very simple terms – like finding a big number 9 who is a top scorer. Such searches can still work for clubs with infinite amounts of cash, but other clubs need to be more clever, finding tactical changes as well as goal scorers.
Arsenal were one of the first innovators of this change in recent times bringing in Thierry Henry who played much of his football as if he were a winger, and yet still became top scorer. That was the clue: forget the old simplicity and instead score goals through different routes which can confuse the opposition.
Last season Arsenal explored various alternative approaches and scored just six goals fewer than ManC, but still ended up with the best goal difference in the league. A goal difference that was 25 goals better than that of Manchester United, who had the third best goal difference in the league!! That shows us the sort of on-field organisation and planning that is going on these days. It has nothing to do with getting a better centre forward or a new winger. It is about the whole tactical evolution of the football within the club.
In my opinion even clubs like Liverpool and Manchester United are nowhere near where Arsenal have got to in this regard, and that makes me feel rather positive about this new season.
It’s not strictly true because Arsenal and the so called big 6 have a distinct advantage over clubs like Newcastle and Aston Villa who have the potential to compete at a much higher level but who are not allowed to spend on whoever they believe are better players and of course they are not in a position whereby they are forced to sell their best players
This is completely unfair on clubs as mentioned who have the finances but are not allowed to improve due to not being in the so called top 6
Arsenal for example are not that great but simply have the way with all to spend exactly what they want and rob a posing teams of their best players Man City have bought the best team for years and now we have Arsenal doing the same.
It’s my belief that this is a false situation and given a level playing field as regards to expenditure that for example both Aston Villa and Newcastle have managers every bit as good possibly better that Arteta and would be capable of challenging at the highest level . So until this crazy situation is resolved the top 6 will always have a completely unfair advantage , and in truth this is spoiling football .
Colin
Please tell me exactly what advantage we have. As far as I can see we all operate under the same rules.
Nobody’s finances are restricted at all. All you have to do is EARN the money before you spend it. More than that you can have loans, but as in the real World they are against what you can repay.
Why do you find that consept so distastefull? It’s how most businessess work. It’s how my household works. It’s how normal life works.
Oh I see, you just want somebody to GIVE you the money. You don’t fancy the idea of running your club so well that you can spend as much as Arsenal. When times were tough for us we went 10 years with a ZERO net spend on players but still competed with the richest club in the World and two that were ‘doped’ just like you want to be.
And what I find odd is that you are complaining about those 2 ‘doped’ clubs. But the truth is, you haven’t really got a problem with clubs being ‘doped’ and spending lots of money, you’ve just got a problem you’re not one of them.
What I don’t get is why you have a problem with Arsenal, or even Man Utd and Liverpool. We all have what we have by running our clubs well.
When we don’t we suffer like everyone else. Liverpool have been relegated. Man Utd have been relegated. Arsenal recently went over 20 years without a title and had to endure 10 years of zero net spend on players. We were endlessly mocked. But through good ownership, management and crucialy, patience, we have clawed our way back to the top. Now we have money, but we bloody well earned it.
Hard work. Good practises. Inteligent owners. Patience.
You should try it.
Spoiling football. Really. Googled:
“More people globally watch football (soccer) than ever before, driven by massive international tournaments like the FIFA World Cup and expanding digital streaming.Global Growth and Viewership Record Audiences: Major global events continue to shatter past records, with billions tuning in worldwide for marquee matches and tournaments.New Markets: Viewership is expanding significantly in regions like the United States—bolstered by major events and increased broadcast access—reaching younger and more diverse audiences”.
For you maybe.
Jealousy. It eats at you my friend.
Colin, the Arsenal paid for their stadium which took around 13-14 years to achieve. whilst 2 clubs in particular were running riot and spending without any restrictions the Arsenal were selling their best players to survive and the manager was still able to get a team into the top 4 for a English record 19 consecutive years by finding talented young footballers and developing their potential.
When Ffp was followed by psr the Gunners bit the bullet and endured the banter years . You remember? the years of Arsenal only have £40m for their transfer watches whereas team x has spent twice that on a reserve winger etc. Anyway, the point is we weren’t living in opulent splendour and we weren’t complaining . All we saw was our place in the top echelon of English football was slowly being eroded our value went down year on year. Whatever Arsenal have now took hard work grit and determination there was no quick fix. So when I saw your comment I have to admit I was a bit miffed by your implying that Arsenal were holding poor old Newcastle and Villa back and its all so unfair. The fact is they need a good strategy and a whole lot of patience. The Arsenal are now near the top and apparently you’re all for ” let clubs spend like there’s no tomorrow ” I’d like to draw your attention to Leeds some 30+ years ago doing exactly that and how they dropped like a stone because they effectively spent money they didn’t have . They aren’t alone in this respect. Yet you’ve seen Arsenal come good despite the corruption evidenced especially by 2 clubs ie 115 and 74 so you may agree that success can be achieved by a club who slowly built a good squad and who made decisions made on its faith in the manager and his long term strategy. The potential is still there for other teams to be every bit as good but it depends on slow progress and and not some media pundit led quick fix.
What’s your view ?
*watches ? I wrote warchest