Untold Arsenal on Twitter @UntoldArsenal
- Referee: Michael Oliver
- Assistant 1: Charles Breakspear
- Assistant 2: Mike Cairns
- 4th Official: Peter Walton
Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch… It’s one of those threadbare RefWatches today as we’ve got one of the new boys and there is very little data – Arsenal have had two matches under Oliver and West Brom three. But we’ll soldier on regardless…
…Oh yeah – no nice graphs as there is only one season’s worth – so I’m afraid it’s all text!
The current Asian Handicap is: Arsenal giving 1.25 ball i.e. the Asian Bookies reckon Arsenal are one and a quarter goals better than West Brom – quater ball bets are actually split bets between half and full ball (in this case 1 and 1.5).
Therfore if you buy Arsenal @ odds of 2.0 and:
Arsenal win by 2 = Bet won
Arsenal win by 1 = Half stake refunded/half lost
Arsena Draw or Lose = Bet lost
And vice versa – simples!
FYI – at the time of writing this Arsenal are paying odds of 2.0 and West Brom 1.9.
Let’s have a look at the Referee:
- Full name: Michael Oliver
- Date of birth: 20-Feb-1985 (Age 26)
- Place of birth: Ashington
- Resides: Northumberland
- EPL Referee Since: 2010/2011
- EPL Games to date: 20
Look at me, I am old, but I’m happy.
It’s Michael Oliver again… you remember him – no? Well, that’s hardly surprising as we’ve only had him twice (and we lost both of those). But to refresh your memory you can read the excellent RefReview right on this site: Ref Review – Arsenal v Aston Villa
Let’s check out his stats!
| Season | Avg BPM | Avg FPB | OPP Avg BPM | OPP Avg FPB | Avg PPG | Avg AH Swing |
| 2010/2011 | 2.50 | 4.80 | 3.50 | 3.43 | 0.00 | -1.63 |
Michael Oliver has had 2 games for Arsenal consisting of 0 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses.
Arsenal are currently in 13th in Michael Oliver’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an average of 0.00 PPG.
In Michael Oliver’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Arsenal come 13th with an average negative swing of -1.63.
Arsenal are currently in 10th in Michael Oliver’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an overall average of 2.50 BPM.
In Michael Oliver’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, Arsenal come 11th with an overall average of 4.80 FPB.
Ok – 2 games and 2 losses = pretty bad. We lost once to Aston Villa and once to… wait for it… yup, West Brom! That’s right – at home we lost 2-3 to West Brom on the 25/09/2010! Tell you what then… shall we all have a guess whom the 4th Official was for that match? Yup – Peter Walton!
What are the odds eh… what are the odds?
| Season | Avg BPM | Avg FPB | OPP Avg BPM | OPP Avg FPB | Avg PPG | Avg AH Swing |
| 2010/2011 | 3.33 | 4.10 | 2.67 | 6.00 | 1.33 | 0.17 |
Michael Oliver has had 3 games for West Bromwich Albion consisting of 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss.
West Bromwich Albion are currently in 8th in Michael Oliver’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an average of 1.33 PPG.
In Michael Oliver’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, West Bromwich Albion come 7th with an average positive swing of 0.17.
West Bromwich Albion are currently in 13th in Michael Oliver’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, with an overall average of 3.33 BPM.
In Michael Oliver’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 2 matches played), for matches in the English Premier, West Bromwich Albion come 13th with an overall average of 4.10 FPB.
Let’s move on now to check out how Michael Oliver performs against selected teams in the EPL i.e. the only teams that he’s had for more than one consecutive season:
The Predictortron gives Arsenal a -0.312499 of a goal disadvantage… but seriously – come on Predictortron, that’s got to be down to the lack of data and the ‘coincidental’ re-appointment of Oliver and Walton for the same fixture for two seasons running – this is a nailed on 3 pointer ain’t it?
Surely – I mean, it’s Saturday at 3pm and everything?!
Untold Index
History Index
Making the Arsenal
mhh is it coincidence that we have the same ref with the same 4th official in a same fixture 2 seasons in a row? i think not..lets just hope the result is different today
That performance, if you want to call it that, in the Aston Villa game was shocking. The phrase, “either corrupt or incompetent” comes to mind.
It really makes you wonder if these refs are promoted because of what they know or who they know.
I guess it was nice that you mentioned more about gambling and odds for this game Dogface. Popular Science published an article a day or two ago, “Four Lessons About Data From Ireland’s Biggest Bookmaker”.
http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-11/four-things-we-learned-about-data-irelands-biggest-bookmaker
There is one graphic in the article, with the caption “Manchester United versus Arsenal, in 2009 Who will score the next goal? There’s no telling for sure, but there’s lots of data out there that can enhance our estimations.”.
Oh, the RefPreview link (copied below) on the front page of Untold Arsenal isn’t working.
http://blog.emiratesstadium.info/We%27ve%20had%20this%20ref%20twice%20and%20we%27ve%20lost%20both%20times!!!!!!!!!
Dang – no wonder the comments were low! I was at the game so wasn’t here to fix it – I thought Oliver had a good game, he played an excellent advantage at one point and encouraged technicality over physicality throughout
I remember that last season he got over 90% (it was the highest score at the time) in the West Brom game, so I trust this ref for the most part