RefWatch – Wolverhampton Wanderers Vs Arsenal (11/04/2012 – 19:45)



Untold Arsenal on Twitter @UntoldArsenal


By DogFace

  • Referee: Neil Swarbrick
  • Assistant 1: Andy Garratt
  • Assistant 2: Mike Mullarkey
  • 4th Official: Michael Jones

Good morning stat-fans and welcome to RefWatch… Hi guys – we’ve only had one game for Neil Swarbrick and Arsenal so there’s not that much to say in this RefWatch. I will cover what there is of his history with Wolverhampton so take from that what you can.

Asian Handicap (betting line) market:

Home Handicap Away
2.025 1 1/4 – 0 1.875

The Under/Over market:

Over Handicap Under
1.850 3 2.050

We are the firm bookies favorites for this one on the handicap and this is also reflected in the Fixed Odds market with us priced up as 1.410 – so not much value there if you are looking to back the Gunners… also this game – despite being a late midweek fixture – is slightly ‘under the radar’ in terms of exposure as it is a non Sky/ESPN and starting at the same time as the Manchester United and Manchester City fixtures.

Let’s have a look at the Referee:

  • Full name: Neil Swarbrick
  • Date of birth:
  • Place of birth:
  • Resides:
  • EPL/ECH Referee Since: 2005/2006
  • EPL/ECH Games to date: 84

Neil Swarbrick
Neil Swarbrick

It’s Neil Swarbrick again… you remember him:

Season Score Match
2011/2012 77.780% Sunderland 1 – 2 Arsenal
Average Score: 77.780%

Let’s check out his stats!

FPB = Fouls Per Booking (vertical axis)
BPM = Bookings Per Match(line width)
AHS = Asian Handicap Swing i.e. the deviation from the expected result(vertical axis)
PPG = Points Per Game(line width)
Therefore a high thin line for FPB/BPM would indicate a lot of fouls and very little bookings – and a low thin line for AHS/PPG would indicate an underperformance against the betting line and very few points taken.

Neil Swarbrick has had 6 games for Wolverhampton Wanderers consisting of 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses.

Wolverhampton Wanderers are currently in 25th in Neil Swarbrick’s personal Points Per Game League (for teams with a minimum of 1 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an average of 1.17 PPG.

In Neil Swarbrick’s personal Handicap Swing League (for teams with a minimum of 1 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Wolverhampton Wanderers come 1st with an average positive swing of 1.48.

Wolverhampton Wanderers are currently in 4th in Neil Swarbrick’s personal Booking’s Per Match League (for teams with a minimum of 1 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, with an overall average of 0.50 BPM.

In Neil Swarbrick’s personal Fouls Per Booking League (for teams with a minimum of 1 matches played), for matches in the EPL/ECH, Wolverhampton Wanderers come 2nd with an overall average of 25.67 FPB.

It is fairly worrying to see such disparity in the booking lines for Wolverhampton under Swarbrick compared with that of their opposition – especially if you consider that Wolves have blown the graph in the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 seasons with 22 and 25 FPB respectively.

Wolverhampton’s form has improved dramatically recently under Neil Swarbrick (as can be seen in the 2010/2011 season where they smashed a ten man Blackpool four goals to nil.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Wolverhampton Wanderers took all their bookings under Neil Swarbrick.

As you can see – what bookings Wolverhampton do take under Swarbrick – they take them very late indeed, so late in fact that they are hardly worth mentioning.

The colour of the line represents the player type.
The position of the line against the vertical axis will indicate the average time of the booking and the thickness of the line indicates the average number of bookings of players in that position.
Therefore a high fat orange line would indicate that the referee often books the specified teams defence out of the challenge early, a low thin line or no line would indicate the opposite.  The number of minutes bottoms out at 100 to indicate no bookings.

Above is a seasonal breakdown on how, when and where Wolverhampton Wanderers’s opposition took all their bookings under Neil Swarbrick.

Wolverhampton Wanders opposition also take, on average, late bookings – although I know that in the 2010/2011 season in the game against Blackpool; Campbell was sent off just before half time – so there is an issue with the graph when it comes to Red card time representation, I would say that the time is doubled along with the booking points (which is why it looks so late). I will fix this bug before the next match – apologies.

At this point we would normaly check out the Away team [Arsenal], alas Neil Swarbrick has had 1 games for Arsenal [an away game against Sunderland that we won 1-2] so we don’t have any nice graphs – sorry – FYI we had a AH swing of +0.38 in that match which is entirely normal for a win.

Let’s move on now to check out how Neil Swarbrick performs against selected teams in the EPL:

The ine thickness represents the average Points Per Game and the position of the line against the vertical axis represents the average swing againd the handicap.

As Neil is a relative new boy to the EPL I have just generated some data for current EPL teams of interest [that Neil Swarbrick may also have refereed in the ECH].

Q.P.R. and West Brom look the standout performers under Swarbrick but you can also see that Wolves had a good game last season performance wise. Everton had a result under Swarbrick this season also and I left them in as it seemed to stand out. Looking at it again – Queens Park Rangers figures are really as impressive as they are consistent, I’m so glad we didn’t have him when we played them… not that it would have made much of a difference considering we got Deaned.

The Predictortron gives Wolverhampton Wanderers a -0.956250 of a goal disadvantage….

…support this site and place bets here.


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77 Replies to “RefWatch – Wolverhampton Wanderers Vs Arsenal (11/04/2012 – 19:45)”

  1. Data, courtesy of Wikipedia.
    Born 27 July 1970 (age 41)
    Preston, Lancashire, England

    He apparently still lives in Preston.

  2. Happy to help DogFace. I think all of us warped your last RefWatch with too much unrelated stuff.

  3. Strange how he seems to favor the underdog. The lack of bookings for a side like Wolverhampton is also strangely peculiar.

  4. Wow instead of criticizing our own players, manager, tactics, transfer policy. etc
    You lot actually spend time observing official as your main priority
    It’s the official and FA faults that we are 7 years without trophy right?
    And Wenger The God is a victim of the highest conspiracy

    Your the RAWK version of AFC Fans
    Same deluded bitter Wenger loving bunch

    I bet my week wages Atwood wont put this up
    To afraid of reality eh Atwood?

  5. And thinking of the non acting from the FA against Balotelli even more worrying…

  6. OK Stephen – time to tell us how much you earn, and then forward me a cheque please.

    Additionally, you should do a little bit of homework as otherwise you do end up look a trifle foolish.

    1. We don’t post on officialdom as a priority, but one of the campaigns that we run. Our stats show that across the board there is a bias in the referees, and we point that out.

    2. The site clearly makes it clear at the top of the page that we support Wenger. Other sites don’t – if you want a site that does not support the Arsenal manager you have many to choose from. Indeed it is called “choice”.

    3. Not quite sure where the comment about “bitter” comes from – by and large I think we are quite a happy lot, and if you ever met us at a match, you would find us quite jolly most of the time. Judging by the nature of your writing I suspect the bitterness comes from you.

    4. Oh, and my name is not spelled how you wrote it. Can’t you even get that right?

    Anyway, please do get in touch asap over the transfer of the money to me.

  7. Have you ever watched a game is a question one could ask himself…Maybe too busy abusing the players and the manager to actually see what is happening.

    One has to feel sorry for Stephen. 7 wins in the last 8 games. It must be a real bad time for him.

  8. Tony,
    Having just read Stephen’s rambling comment and your reply, I wonder whether there is a direct correlation between adverse comment and poor grammar and spelling (and often the sustained use of obscenities).
    Is this something that friend Walter could survey? 🙄

  9. Tony,
    I do hope he sends the cheque before the last home game so we can have a big party before and maybe even after the game. (Depending on his earnings 🙂 )

  10. Stephen Qureshi – he’s probably a Manu fan posing as a Gooner. They seem to have a lot of deluded fans who do things like that.
    I just looked up RAWK and it’s a Liverpool fans site. He probably posts on there posing as a Liverpool fan every time they complain about ref bias.

    “Your the RAWK version of AFC Fans
    Same deluded bitter Wenger loving bunch” – I’m not sure that they love Wenger that much though !!!

  11. @ Dogface
    what are your views about the game between Bayern and Borussia in bundesliga. It is undoubtedly the biggest game in the race for the title. But unlike UK, where it would have had a kickoff time different from the other but there are 4 different games being played simultaneously. Do you think that it will affect the outcome of the tie by avoiding high betting market exposure??? I think that this kickoff timing has shown the difference between how football is operated in these two countries and definitely reduces the effect of Asian markets.

  12. Neil Swarbrick, I have waited for this guy to return.

    In his one and only Arsenal match Mr Swarbrick left a good impression, one of the fairest, unbiased performances I have witnessed all season.

    Although I will accept with only one previous appearance in an Arsenal match its probably foolish to get too carried away, plus in the meantime there’s always the chance that Mr Swarbrick has since been infected with a chronic case of “Deans disease”.

  13. Who the fuck let Stephen Qureshi post on here – he is the one BTW who posted that he wished Wenger would get cancer and Ramsey have his leg broken:

    “Wow it’s always the Ref’s fault with you lot!
    Ramsey on the left wing think about that you bunch of Wenger Wanker Sheep

    Pray that fucking Mr Bean lookalike gets leukimia and Ramsey broke his leg again
    So we can actually win something” – Stephen Qureshi

    This is the “Reality” that Stephen Qureshi lives in – hang you head in shame you utter cunt.

  14. @Arun – yes, I would say that having standard kick-off times would reduce this as an issue.

    There is enough bandwidth on a satellite broadcast to show all games simultaneously in HD3D – so the viewers could pick and choose for the game they want to watch… this whole ‘scheduling’ for tv audiences is a misnomer – it’s done for the demand of new gambling markets, pure and simple.

  15. @Tony, you can be sure you’ll not hear from the Stephen Qureshi again for a while moreso after @DogFace exposed him for whom he is.

  16. Dogface, it was me. I let him in. The temptation of getting him to give me his pay packet just tempted me.

    He is in permanent moderation, but if he has committed such unpardonable sins, put him in exclusion and we will never hear from him again. Sorry to mess up your article. Excellent as always.

  17. No worries Tony – he is a regular little bile-toad hopping from blog to blog posting this kind of shit wherever he can… if he could just admit to himself that his anger comes from his own repressed sexual identity then maybe he could lighten up a bit and the world could be a better place.

  18. Walter,
    [on the Untold Media weather front:]
    And further reason for vigilance is, as a symptom of the spreading rot, to witness the change from Tuesday to Wednesday of the Manchester Guardian’s football department’s online front page:
    (1) on Tuesday it’s bursting out with the firestorm of a terrible trio of inconsistent rulings by the FA (including the Balotelli farce and opening season on Arsenal);
    (2) on Wednesday (today) out of a raft of new stories, there is ONE bare-bones (tell-tale) link at the very bottom of the page, with no further follow-up story on Tuesday’s mess, pointing to Wigan coach Martinez having got an apology (very weak and indirect, mind you) for the terrible calls he/his team endured on Sunday [on Chelski’s behalf] BUT with no reversal, restitution, repair of the damage done). That’s it. Sunday never happened. Crisis over. Nothing to see here. Move along. No whinging. Get on with it. Mind the gap…

  19. @bob – nah, he’s just a good look in the mirror away from flouncing around his bedroom singing Liza Minnelli songs into a hairbrush with his tackle tucked between his legs. This anger he exhibits is almost a parody of masculinity – he’s trying too hard to be ‘a man’… whatever that is these days.

  20. Shard,
    Yes, that’s it. They’re stenographers to the big lie: typing it out there as if it were a reason; when it is a mind-f$%^ing appearance of something reasonable. (“Oh, well, yup, can’t bend the rules now can they? Awright then, time to turn on the tube n’ watch me medicine. Any vinegar left for the chips…”)

    And Cheers for pointing out their oh-so-selective Comments policy. Can’t let the great unwashed comment on the so-called rule that gives away their game, now, can we? That would show other readers how little legitimacy is left to the current keepers of the once and future beautiful game.

  21. re. SQ – My guess is that it would be difficult to determine which is smaller; his weekly pay or his IQ…

  22. Hello first post, mate pointed me in the direction of this site, love it in depth anaylsis of the men in black which after the last 5 days surely deserve as much scrutiny as the players! Cheers for the infor

  23. If that’s how anything linked to the Arsenal makes Stephen feel, then its time for him to quit if he is a Gooner. Rather support Man U where he will be guaranteed silverware by hook or crook. I have been a Gooner since 29/11/09 when we lost 3 nil to Chelsea. I got my revenge last year on my wedding day (29/10/11) when we beat them 5-2.Bring on Wolves.

  24. Why has Swarbrick had so many games for Wolves compared with so few games for Arsenal? I guess that I would technically have to ask the PGMO, but wondering if anyone has a theory about this?

    Also, what about Mike Jones as 4th official? To what extent is this a Swarbrick match, and to what extent a Jones match?

    In light of yesterday’s FA ruling, and the low TV viewing exposure, I’m nervous about what might go down in this match. I guess we’ll just have to see. Come on Arsenal!!!

  25. for those wanting to wanting to watch the game tonight, watch it at “first row sports” and follow the link to the arsenal game.

    The games are divided by the time so look for the kick off time on the left of the screen and click on the links. It takes 20/30 seconds for the advert to go away and then you can full screen the game on your laptop- I actually use my Playstation 3 and stream it wirelessly that way- i hope this helps as iv noticed the game is not televised- u need an adequate internet/wireless connection for it to work…

    (this is not legal (well not yet) re-the female pub landlord last year who challenged skysports over streaming overseas live games onto her pub telly and won)

  26. It seems that the refs that are free of the PGMOL spin machine have a very poor view on the current state of affairs http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17668965

    What is interesting though is the way that press seem to be criticising refs for a day or so and then go back to sleep. Its a shame that one of them doesnt seek to play devil advocate to the information that the PGMOL is giving and investigate further.

    Or perhaps they could use Sky’s reasoning (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17628600) and hack the voicemail/emails of the PGMOL and show who is right all along.

  27. more BBC trivia from http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17680748

    > 2018: Infostrada Sports on Twitter: “Van Persie scored against his 17th different Premier League club this season, equalling the record previously set by Andy Cole, Alan Shearer and Ian Wright. The only teams Van Persie has not scored against are Manchester City, Fulham and, of course, Arsenal.”

  28. OT: In other shocking shocking news Wigan have a goal disallowed against ..against…wait for it… Man United!!! .. and apparently a perfectly good goal… and my cable operator has NOT put Star Sports on… terrible : (

  29. Apparently a certain team has got another decision their way on the way to the media’s favourite story.

  30. Wigan nil Manu Nil
    But only half time I’m sure M.Riley’s mob will see to that, and, possibly Man City drawing WBA would please Lord Fungus.

  31. I will be pretty interested in what Martinez has to say if Wigan lose again tonight. May be relegation can bring what’s right or wrong to his mind.

  32. WHAT?? Wigan being fucked over, for gods sake why the hell does we bother with this League?

  33. @Tasos, that is the Press Association play by play of just the Manu Wigan game. The other feed http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17680748 has BBC commentary.

    > 2020: DISALLOWED GOAL – Massive confusion and then more than a little anger at Wigan as the hosts’ celebrations are cut short by a linesman’s flag. Victor Moses nodded into the net from a corner and there seemed little wrong with it. Referee Phil Dowd rules it out though after his assistant Dave Richardson flags for an obstruction on David de Gea by Gary Caldwell. Looked pretty soft from here.

    > BBC Sport Chief Football Writer Phil McNulty at the DW Stadium – “Wigan’s players, management and fans furious after Victor Moses’ goal was ruled out. Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson is visibly unhappy, to put it mildly, with his team’s performance so far. Wigan have been much the better side.”

    > 2042: You have to feel a little sore for Victor Moses. The Wigan youngster is through a full knee slide and is posing arms aloft before he realises that his ‘opener’ is to be chalked off. To add insult, it looks like Manchester United’s Jonny Evans has accidentally nudged Gary Caldwell into goalkeeper David de Gea to trigger the linesman’s flag.

    I see that Wigan have now found a goal that Dowd cannot find a reason to disallow.

  34. Please, let Wolves get too tired to play “park the bus” effectively, and let RVP get some more goals. 🙂

    He deserves a chance at the scoring title.

    More Manure
    > 2110: Another moment of controversy for referee Phil Dowd. United defender Jonny Evans – who was booked in the first half – catches goalscorer Shaun Maloney with a late challenge which could easily be another caution. Nothing given.

  35. so we now know then..atleast 4 months need to pass before Arsenal get a penalty in the league..our last one before today was back in December and before that it was in August

  36. then again when we get em we can only get one it seems as that was another clear penalty the ref denied

  37. Well that looked a good game from the ref at first sight. I had the impression that in the final 10 minutes he felt sorry for Wolves and let a few things go. That is the way to lose points ref Swarbrick!!! You are ruining a good score…

  38. I’m no expert, but what is the point of keep playing Robin when the team is up by 3 and playing against 10 men? Are the replacements that bad? Mind boggling. He was close twice to getting injured. I’m not complaining or anything. Just an observation.

  39. Walter

    He’s not ruining a good score. He’s trying to keep his job..That’s what my father was saying 🙂

  40. Boring boring Arsenal! This was the *best boring match* that I have seen in a long time! 😀

  41. Great link by none..

    From that we see ex ref Clive Thomas say the following.

    Thomas said: “We haven’t got our act together at all.
    “I don’t see that the referees of today are even in the right positions to give right decisions. That concerns me.

    “Referees today are concerned, it seems, far more about what the assessors think of them, and are not thinking how to referee a game.
    “It never worried me what the assessors would say.”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17668965

  42. @Walter i had the same impression..there were 2 penalties he could and should have given but he didnt and also let them get away with fouls..

  43. i just saw the wigan goal that was disallowed and have to ask what was wrong with it? or another case of Riley`s orders being followed?

  44. Is this the same Bassong the media was raving about as a master stroke by ‘Arry some seasons ago?

  45. Great to see Clive Thomas speaking out. Seems like the Wigan ref did not read the script, despite adding on all that time, if city keep balotelli away from proceedings, utd may even need Webb to make a fool of himself when they play citeh to keep things on track.
    Well done arsenal this evening, more at the weekend!

  46. @Shard:

    Those comments are quite interesting, and raise the question of what it is, precisely, that would be causing referees “these days” to have different priorities…

    Specifically, it would seem that referees now might be more concerned about pleasing their employers (ie “the assessors”) than they are about refereeing. But why wouldn’t this have always been a concern?

    Maybe because the nature of the “employment” relationship has changed? The refs weren’t always professional, after all… And the PGMOL didn’t always exist…

  47. Walter have you started writing for Eurosport?..

    1) Implement technology to assist in making crucial decisions
    It’s been called for in goal-line decisions, and while other sports have adopted technology in all kinds of decisions with some success, football still lags behind.

    2) Foreign referees should be employed if they are of a better standard
    The Premier League has foreign players and managers – why not referees?

    3) Referees and their assistants should face the media to explain their decisions
    Some, including our resident expert Paul Parker, worry it might lead to more abuse for referees, but the counter argument is that it could help fans understand the referee’s thought process.

    4) Players should be retrospectively punished for challenging officials’ authority
    Despite countless ‘respect’ campaigns the players still feel they can say what they want to referees. If swift and decisive punishments are handed out to those who swear, abuse or show any form of dissent to the officials, it will stop. And then perhaps referees will have more room simply to get on with the job of officiating.

    5) The punishment of officials should be entirely transparent and explained by the authorities
    If refereeing performances are closely monitored by the governing bodies, why not let the public know how they’re doing? Umpires on cricket’s elite list are subject to the same scrutiny.

    http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/10042012/58/premier-league-premier-league-refereeing-improved.html

    I think you missed one.

    6) Publish all correspondence between PGMOL and mangers.

    Although I would prefer.

    7) Putting incompetent officials in stocks and subject to public rotten fruit throwing.

  48. @none:

    I agree with Shard that this is a very good link:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17668965

    It also ties in with something very interesting that Gord pointed out to me about a company called ProZone, which contracts with the PGMOL to provide match data, and I quote:

    “Data from ProZone…shows that assistant referees have got over 99% of offside decisions right this season.”

    Apparently, ProZone also has contracts with major EPL clubs.

    And that, in turn, reminds me of something that Adam pointed out on a different thread, which is that the CEO of the company Tune, Inc, which is the official PGMOL sponsor, also happens to be the owner of QPR.

    These business relationships linking the PGMOL with certain EPL clubs are quite worthy of further investigation, I think… And I would “bet” that following this money trail through both organizations would prove quite interesting.

  49. @Anne

    Yes. That is something I was thinking about with those comments. Also, why does caring about the assessor’s opinion actually lead to worse performances? Shouldn’t the assessors ensure that only the ones with good performances are retained? Unless they don’t care about the level of performance…

    Of course the PGMOL claims he is wrong, and again say figures show that officials get 92% decisions right (without revealing the statistics), and they also falsely claim Prozone stats show 99% correct offside decisions. As far as I remember, Prozone only compile data on distances run. Also, another lie by the PGMOL is that “Everything that is available is used:” Video is available, and is not used. Liar liar…. Do you smell something burning?

  50. @Mandy nice to have you back…i think Dowd decided to go do his job without any sripts today and he can be great when he wants to be non biased but maybe he had the memories of the corresponding game at OT as i remember correctly he incorrectly sent off a wigan player which gave United an advantage and won by 4(5?)- 0

  51. @Shard:

    “Also, why does caring about the assessor’s opinion actually lead to worse performances?”

    Good point, that 🙂

  52. @Anne @Shard speaking of QPR looks like they had another big decision go their way tonight as theri 2nd goal was offside..coincidence? i think not

  53. Hi Guys

    I have not seen the match as yet, but good result and three valuable points in the bag.

  54. @ Shard/Anne

    Well interestingly enough Prozone list Arsenal as one of the clubs that actually use their product. In this case Prozone3.

    Quote:
    PROZONE3 provides an unparalleled level of performance information and presents it through a rich and engaging format that has been designed alongside leading coaches and managers. PROZONE3 is the only player tracking system of its kind to have been independently validated and is widely used for comprehensive post-match analysis of performance by some of the biggest clubs in the world including Arsenal FC and Real Madrid.

    As for their work with the PGMOL you have the following:
    Our referee analysis service includes a range of interactive performance analysis
    tools offering full-pitch video coverage and animation, detailed statistical data, and
    the games most comprehensive and detailed performance database. This allows
    officials and coaches to identify areas in need of improvement and develop
    personalized training programmes for individual match officials.

    I really liked the comment about training, again quoting
    “Our referee analysis service allows personalised training programmes to be developed for each match official. This leads to more efficient and effective training schedules and higher levels of performance.”

    Perhaps you need to have another look at Phil Dowd’s training program or suggest that he moves away from Mrs Miggins pie shop?

    You can read all their corporate buff in: http://www.prozonesports.com/folder/prozone/pdf/service_3.pdf

    But my favourite find of the night was searching in Google for ‘PGMOL’, 3rd link down…
    http://anotherarsenalblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/what-does-pgmol-and-premier-league-have.html

  55. @Anne, Walter, others.

    If you add together all the statistics knowledge of The FA, PGMOL and ProZone, I probably had more than before I went on to my M.Eng. And that was 1984. If there are faults to find, I am going to try and find them.

  56. Thanks Mahdain, just been away in body but not in spirit. And even better, was away with amongst others, my brother in law who is a very worried spud!

  57. Gord,
    “If” there are faults to find? Well, everyone knows there are, and that there’s no transparency with the post-match assessor reports or with the data. So….?

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