Only 1 in 5 red cards was right last year. Ref League Tables – the important decisions.

22 Replies to “Only 1 in 5 red cards was right last year. Ref League Tables – the important decisions.”

1. Except the fact that the results are so depressing, great work!

   Two questions, though–since I’m not a qualified referee myself, I’d like to know what constitutes a red card offense. And also, did you include only straight red cards in the analysis, or were second yellows included as well?

   And to anyone who’s a ref with some free time, sign up! Walter and the reviewers need your help!

2. Walter,
   These continue to be shocking results. The new “normal” of lowered, sub-average expectations. The honeyed end product of the Hives of Queen Bee Riley is eagerly awaited in your next article.

   Perhaps then you will provide a statistic (if possible) of what are the odds of a team – Arsenal in this case – to have had ZERO penalty kicks at Home, awarded in one season. I’d hope to see that stat here, perhaps in the comments. Or in the next article/comments. Is this calculable? Wouldn’t it be an important statistic for AFC fans, indeed any fans to know? If the odds are astronomically against this happenstance, wouldn’t that say something that matters?

3. Big credits to you guys DogFace and Walter Broeckx, excellent work!

   Before knowing the date you collected i already knew Stoke City would have the lowest score on correct goal decisions. They get away with fouling the goalkeeper every damn time. It really pisses me off. Look at their last match against Bolton, and how Foy screwed The Trotters. All the goals scored by Stoke in that match should have been disallowed.

   When a team doesn’t have an alternative way of scoring, they shouldn’t be allowed to cheat. But they are! When a team cannot match the technical level of the oppononent, they shouldn’t be allowed kicking and intimidating. But they are! When Manchester United cannot keep up for the number 1 spot in the league, they shouldn’t get all the decicions in their advantage. But they do! This is the way the referees think i guess. Very frustrating.

   But hey, Gazidis has a job at the FA now, so thinks might change. Although it took him lightyears to change anything at Arsenal FC.

4. Wow, normally my grammar is bad, but this time i forgot how to spell also.

5. I think it’s very difficult to investigate whether or not the yellow or red card was correct. Individually many cards are incorrect but I think overall the refs do a decent job. I believe the ref will use his cards when things are getting out of hand and just wait for the first chance to show the card. Being on the pitch I think the ref have a good feeling for the game and he will try to keep the game from spiraling out of control. I usually don’t complain when Arsenal recieve a card because I think our players become overly frustrated when things aren’t going their way. Having a young squad will result in more bookings. I think in many cases when a player receives a red card that looks suspicious he has been foul-mouthing and not listened to the ref giving verbal warnings. I’ve given up trying to understand, watching from the stands or at the tv you don’t get the full picture. I want to believe the refs aren’t incompetent. The PL is a very competitive league. It’s faster and more physical so it’s hard to compare it with other leagues. Maybe we can find a correlation between the pace and physicality of the play and the correct calls by the ref between different leagues.

6. El Gringo, I will try to copy the rules and instructions in regards to red cards in the next hours. don’t have much time now. sorry

   But I can tell you that a second yellow card is also counted of course in the red cards.

7. Robbie, would be interesting to find out if people like us do this in other countries so we could compare this to other countries

   Also Robbie,
   In some cases there is no way between a red card at all. Like the defender on the line stopping the ball with his hand from going in. A ref cannot say when it happens: oh it was a fair game up to now so I will just give a yellow card. No the instructions are what they are and have to be followed.

   But like I said to El Gringo: will add the instructions later today (I hope)

8. Dutchie,
   Yes, agreed on all observation. But is it down to the way every referee thinks, every time? It’s clear that in some games some refs (even unexpected refs) can have near perfect ratings, or at least far above average ratings. So what does this big gap between good and terrible come down to? Pure coincidence? Is it is a coincidental collection of individual referees who make individual decisions, end of story? Or, if there are patterns to observe, is it something gone rotten in Denmark, something more than just frustrating. Our frustration – well, the PGMOL can live with that. Beyond frustration lies something more effectual.

9. Robbie,
   You want to believe that everything you are reading is no true because you want to believe that the EPL is neither that incompetent nor that bent. Your honesty is refreshing. But the facts as you read them have pushed you into asking for a comparative study with another league for you to be convinced. If that were possible, and if, indeed, two different league averages actually provided something meaningful (I think that can be argued both ways), would you then ask for a comparison to a third league, and so on? I would suggest that, just perhaps, the reality of refereeing in the EPL, just the EPL is enough to go by for us to examine without going to other leagues. There’s no need – this isn’t particle physics (which, in turn, has had huge debates over what’s going on). Imo, the PGMOL has betrayed your dreams and decent standards; and it depends on our making excuses for them as to why they must be doing a good or honest job. It hurts to be lied to; but it can be energizing to realize it.

10. I am shocked. This data needs to go viral. Everyone should know how truly terrible Premiership referees are. It’s debated every day but we tend to assume that overall they get most of the decisions right. That’s obviously not the case and it almost makes the league a lottery. What we need to do is pay them a lot more but scrutinise them a lot more also, like the players. I am a firm believer that the best paid professions attract the best in their field. Why not pay them 100k a match and give them matches based on number of correct decisions, weighted and judged by a panel. You would see excellent people enter the profession and many of those currently serving poorly would be ejected.

11. Walter,

    Take your time! Your life is much more important than my silly curiosity =)

12. @ Bob

    Well, ofcourse there is no coincidence in this. But it is not unlikely that it’s all down to individuals. Referees are under enormous pressure and they usually lack character to deal with it (same problem in Holland). So it is possible they would not dare to disadvantage Man Utd by denying them a possible penalty, because of the rage of Ferguson, the ammount of supporters and ofcourse the media who will(!) report about it (unlike when Arsenal is denied, then they are quiet).

    It’s also a fact that most of the referees are from the middle and northern parts of England. A lot of those people have a different view on the game compared to the rest of the world (excluding Australia). This view ofcourse conflicts with the rules of the game, as it is not allowed to tackle with two stretched legs (at Stoke-on-trent they are convinced it is part of the game). So it could be a cultural thing too.

    But, even if this is true, then it is still up to the PGMOL to spread the risk of possible bias. They do not. We get Mason a little too often against Everton, while he gives them far more penalties then to other clubs. And Man Utd is getting Webb way too many games, especially the big games at Old Trafford. So it is possible that the referees work fully independent from eachother, but the ones above them know about their bias (proven by the same data u can find here)
    and appoints them to influate the competition.

    Another theory ofcourse is that Manchester United is the flagship of the FA. They are by far the most popular club, especially in Asia. From a commercial perspective it’s good for the FA that Man Utd wins a title once in a while.

    And last but not least, as i said before, don’t forget Ferguson is the big star of the Premier League. He has half of the managers, pundits, journalists and other media in his pockets. Probably some referees too. Their squad is overrated and his tactics (and tactical abillity) are also overrated, but they still manage to win so much. Can’t find the logic in that.

    Wow, long post. Anyway, just a bunch of theories.

13. Dutchie,
    Yes, and all that you’ve set out, taken together, is about isolated individuals, each acting in their own way and their own interests, some who have power and some who have none to less? Is this what you’re saying? No shared plans, no payoffs, no quiet alliances, no convergence of mutual interests to have MU come out at or just off the top? That’s just Fergie the One and Only being all-powerful? Is that what you mean?

14. @Mr Broeckx, Question for you. Does this list include red cards that should have been given but were not?

15. I have a question on red cards. As I see it there are four possible scenarios:

    1) The ref correctly issued a red card
    2) The ref incorrectly issued a red card
    3) The ref incorrectly did not issue a red card
    4) The ref correctly did not issue a red card

    My question is, how (if at all) do you go about determining number 4? In theory, the question “should a red card be issued?” could apply to any situation, but clearly there are particular scenarios (a hard tackle, a brawl, etc.). So how do you decide what to include in category 4?

16. Nice piece of work.
    I am NOT shocked at the findings.
    I am shocked that there was 5 teams below us.
    I guess they could afford that though since none were our rivals.

17. @RedGooner: Yeah, me too. I thought that Arsenal have been worst screwed. A little bit of bias from our part, I guess 😉

18. If you take bias for or against, Arsenal is bottom and stoke on top. ;(

    The table merely shows amount of wrong decisions . Stoke had most wrong decisions and most of them were in their favour.
    PS: Looks like Stoke confuses real football with American football. Someone ought to teach the F@#ktards the difference .

19. Adam,
    To read the articles, please use the following :
    Log on to the website I gave you.
    Log on to The History of Arsenal.
    In the righthand column there are titles in alphabetical order.
    Log on to Wartime and the 3 articles under that heading.

20. if there was automatic video replay of every penalty. Then the refs would be more willing to call a penalty because it would get reviewed and if correct the penalty is taken. If not, then it is a goal kick. This is just and it would not take longer than it does now to set up the penalty kick. As it is now the ref is reluctant to call a penalty for fear he has gotten in wrong. But video tec would give him assurance that the right call has been made. If his call of a penalty was correct then he grows in confidence.

    With goal line tech the correct call of goals should improve. The only issue then would be was it off side or was there a foul. So it still might not be 100% correct but it ought to be closer because the officials can now focus on those issues rather than the issue of the ball crossing the line.

    Why are these two technologies been resisted? It seems to me the only reason is that some one is gaining something from not getting decisions correct!

    Keep up the good work Untold Arsenal!

21. mark,
    They’ve officially announced that they are going to install goal line technology in January or next season. It will “fix” a minor but important glitch; and, most important to them, it does not threaten their referee’s interpretation/control of the game results. To ensure this end, deploying goal line technology will become The Excuse for not installing the far more needed full video replay. “Too costly.” “It will slow down the game.” “We’ve already given goal line technology.” “It will take further study.” “We’ll appoint a committee to look into it.” Etc.

22. Mark,
    The only snag in the apprach you mention with regard to video replays for each pen is that it open to abuse by corrupt refs (if there are any of course) as it gives the ref an opportunity to call a penalty for non penalty instances in order to stop a team from scoring and then conveniently as it is not a penalty, the defending team get a goal kick.

    I think video replay does need to be implemented and the managers need to have the say over when an incident is reviewed. The review can be done on the sideline with a 5th official whilst play continues and if deemed a penalty, then play will stop and the ball will go back. If you give a manager unlimited calls but up to a maximum of 2 or 3 incorrect calls before 80 or 85 minutes, this should control over use and time wasting too.