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What’s wrong with PL refs. The last case study: Webb

by Walter Broeckx

In our series to find out with which ref some teams perform better than average we have referee Howard Webb next. And this is the final article in this series. We have talked about teams and then showed how each team did with each ref. And then we did the ref articles where you can see in one blink of an eye how all the teams do with this ref.

In a way I looked at this as a way to see quickly how a game could end without taking in account the things that can happen on the field. If football were a game of stats these numbers would be very helpful in deciding who and what could win a game between two teams. But as we know stats aren’t the be all and end all in determining the final score of a game of football. Let’s hope we can keep it that way.

But first let me explain in short the average, under and over thing you see in the last row. This is for new readers of course. Regular readers can skip this text and go to the table.

When you see “average” it means that the results of the team in general are not that far away with the results when the ref is in charge. It is in fact what one should hope to see most.

When we see “over” it means that the team in question is doing much better and in some cases much much better than they usual do.

And when you see “under” it means that the team is doing bad compared to their usual win percentage.

So let us see the results of the teams under referee Webb.

Total

won

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draw

lost

won

draw

lost

Achieving

Arsenal

797

426

212

159

53,45%

26,60%

19,95%

Webb

34

14

9

11

41,18%

26,47%

32,35%

Under
Aston Villa

797

287

249

261

36,01%

31,24%

32,75%

Webb

25

8

11

6

32,00%

44,00%

24,00%

Average
Chelsea

797

414

206

177

51,94%

25,85%

22,21%

Webb

33

14

11

8

42,42%

33,33%

24,24%

Under
Everton

797

282

230

285

35,38%

28,86%

35,76%

Webb

32

10

11

11

31,25%

34,38%

34,38%

Average
Fulham

443

137

128

178

30,93%

28,89%

40,18%

Webb

23

6

8

9

26,09%

34,78%

39,13%

Average
Liverpool

797

389

203

205

48,81%

25,47%

25,72%

Webb

37

16

8

13

43,24%

21,62%

35,14%

Average
Man City

607

226

159

222

37,23%

26,19%

36,57%

Webb

30

16

6

8

53,33%

20,00%

26,67%

Over
MU

797

520

165

112

65,24%

20,70%

14,05%

Webb

42

29

5

8

69,05%

11,90%

19,05%

Average
Newcastle

717

284

192

241

39,61%

26,78%

33,61%

Webb

35

10

9

16

28,57%

25,71%

45,71%

Under
Norwich

227

68

72

87

29,96%

31,72%

38,33%

Webb

9

3

3

3

33,33%

33,33%

33,33%

Average
QPR

227

71

57

99

31,28%

25,11%

43,61%

Webb

6

1

2

3

16,67%

33,33%

50,00%

Under
Reading

101

31

21

49

30,69%

20,79%

48,51%

Webb

12

5

0

7

41,67%

0,00%

58,33%

Over
Southampton

531

155

146

230

29,19%

27,50%

43,31%

Webb

8

0

4

4

0,00%

50,00%

50,00%

Under
Stoke

177

53

54

70

29,94%

30,51%

39,55%

Webb

22

10

8

4

45,45%

36,36%

18,18%

Over
Sunderland

443

119

112

212

26,86%

25,28%

47,86%

Webb

19

7

6

6

36,84%

31,58%

31,58%

Over
Swansea

63

20

21

22

31,75%

33,33%

34,92%

Webb

6

0

2

4

0,00%

33,33%

66,67%

Under
Tottenham

797

307

210

280

38,52%

26,35%

35,13%

Webb

34

15

9

10

44,12%

26,47%

29,41%

Average
WBA

253

62

64

127

24,51%

25,30%

50,20%

Webb

12

1

4

7

8,33%

33,33%

58,33%

Under
West Ham

641

210

164

267

32,76%

25,59%

41,65%

Webb

25

10

5

10

40,00%

20,00%

40,00%

Average
Wigan

291

81

73

137

27,84%

25,09%

47,08%

Webb

21

6

4

11

28,57%

19,05%

52,38%

Average

So we see that Webb is a ref who does all the teams. We notice that there are four teams who have less than 10g games. Those teams are Norwich, QPR, Southampton and Swansea. But still they have more than five games. The main reason is that those teams are rather new to the PL in the last seasons and he hasn’t done them in the lower divisions.  But still it means that we can have a look at all the teams.

Let us have a look at the teams who do better than their average when Webb is around. Manchester City, Reading, Stoke and Sunderland. Did you fall off your chair? Well I can imagine a few did almost. Yes; no United in the over achieving list. But their neighbours are in there.  I think their average is almost spot on with their average over the last seasons. But for their not so glorious past they get an over-achievement tag on them.

Let us have a look at the refs who perform close to their average when Dean is around. And in this category we can see teams like Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool (yes), Manchester United (yes), Norwich,  Tottenham and West Ham United. Liverpool has a slight under average number and Manchester United has a slight over average score.  But getting an over achievement score for Manchester United is more difficult to get as they have a high win percentage.

So who are the teams who under perform when Webb is around? Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle, QPR, Southampton, Swansea and West Bromwich Albion. Is it a coincidence that two of the teams who have challenged United most for the titles in let us say the last 10 years are underachieving with Webb?

We also notice that a few of the rather new teams under perform when Webb is the ref. This could be down to them playing big teams like Manchester United but also down to these teams only having done a few games under Webb and as a result the numbers are based on not that many games.  The under achievement of Arsenal and Chelsea however is well on a lot of games and so is a reason for concern.

But speaking of Arsenal I rather think that we do rather well in games with Webb that don’t include Manchester United. But apart from this season we usually get Webb for most United games and certainly at Old Trafford we have seen him more than we would have liked to see him.

Recent posts

———————————

The most detailed study of Premier League Refs ever:The referees 2013.

——————————–

The books…

The sites from the same team…

7 comments to What’s wrong with PL refs. The last case study: Webb

  • what a boss!

    umm, you cant say cause for concern an all that ..

    if one particular stat stands out .. you can comment saying its possible it’s not natural .. (though not definite, it can still be just luck)

    but if the stat is just normal .. whats the cause for concern! of course man u will slightly over perform with some refs and under perform with some others .. !! you expect them to perform exactly average as the ideal and most probable result? nooo

  • Florian

    Walter,

    Stoke has a 45% win percentage with Webb, yet they are labeled as “average”.

  • Walter

    He’s the reason for their average with all those games he refs them.

  • Florian

    I know:) I guess without him their win percentage would be even lower than the current 29.94% overall.

  • WalterBroeckx

    I tagged Stoke in the wrong way. corrected it. Sorry.

  • WalterBroeckx

    If we look at the stats from Arsenal and Newcastle we can see that we get a ref that both teams don’t really have good stats with him. So it can go both ways.

    The good thing might be that he will not try to expose himself too much now with his appointment to the confederations cup. Doing silly things now might hamper his future chances for going future appointments.

  • Florian

    Thanks Walter. Totally agree. He proved number of times that he is actually a competent ref. He’s just obedient. Like eventually all the EPL refs. I liked Clattenburg the most, but after the Chelsea debacle even he started to make dubious decisions. But enough with the rants. Hope that Sunday we’ll make 4-0-0 this season with Webb reffing.