What’s wrong with PL refs. The last case study: Webb

by Walter Broeckx

In our series to find out with which ref some teams perform better than average we have referee Howard Webb next. And this is the final article in this series. We have talked about teams and then showed how each team did with each ref. And then we did the ref articles where you can see in one blink of an eye how all the teams do with this ref.

In a way I looked at this as a way to see quickly how a game could end without taking in account the things that can happen on the field. If football were a game of stats these numbers would be very helpful in deciding who and what could win a game between two teams. But as we know stats aren’t the be all and end all in determining the final score of a game of football. Let’s hope we can keep it that way.

But first let me explain in short the average, under and over thing you see in the last row. This is for new readers of course. Regular readers can skip this text and go to the table.

When you see “average” it means that the results of the team in general are not that far away with the results when the ref is in charge. It is in fact what one should hope to see most.

When we see “over” it means that the team in question is doing much better and in some cases much much better than they usual do.

And when you see “under” it means that the team is doing bad compared to their usual win percentage.

So let us see the results of the teams under referee Webb.

	Total	won	draw	lost	won	draw	lost	Achieving
Arsenal	797	426	212	159	53,45%	26,60%	19,95%
Webb	34	14	9	11	41,18%	26,47%	32,35%	Under
Aston Villa	797	287	249	261	36,01%	31,24%	32,75%
Webb	25	8	11	6	32,00%	44,00%	24,00%	Average
Chelsea	797	414	206	177	51,94%	25,85%	22,21%
Webb	33	14	11	8	42,42%	33,33%	24,24%	Under
Everton	797	282	230	285	35,38%	28,86%	35,76%
Webb	32	10	11	11	31,25%	34,38%	34,38%	Average
Fulham	443	137	128	178	30,93%	28,89%	40,18%
Webb	23	6	8	9	26,09%	34,78%	39,13%	Average
Liverpool	797	389	203	205	48,81%	25,47%	25,72%
Webb	37	16	8	13	43,24%	21,62%	35,14%	Average
Man City	607	226	159	222	37,23%	26,19%	36,57%
Webb	30	16	6	8	53,33%	20,00%	26,67%	Over
MU	797	520	165	112	65,24%	20,70%	14,05%
Webb	42	29	5	8	69,05%	11,90%	19,05%	Average
Newcastle	717	284	192	241	39,61%	26,78%	33,61%
Webb	35	10	9	16	28,57%	25,71%	45,71%	Under
Norwich	227	68	72	87	29,96%	31,72%	38,33%
Webb	9	3	3	3	33,33%	33,33%	33,33%	Average
QPR	227	71	57	99	31,28%	25,11%	43,61%
Webb	6	1	2	3	16,67%	33,33%	50,00%	Under
Reading	101	31	21	49	30,69%	20,79%	48,51%
Webb	12	5	0	7	41,67%	0,00%	58,33%	Over
Southampton	531	155	146	230	29,19%	27,50%	43,31%
Webb	8	0	4	4	0,00%	50,00%	50,00%	Under
Stoke	177	53	54	70	29,94%	30,51%	39,55%
Webb	22	10	8	4	45,45%	36,36%	18,18%	Over
Sunderland	443	119	112	212	26,86%	25,28%	47,86%
Webb	19	7	6	6	36,84%	31,58%	31,58%	Over
Swansea	63	20	21	22	31,75%	33,33%	34,92%
Webb	6	0	2	4	0,00%	33,33%	66,67%	Under
Tottenham	797	307	210	280	38,52%	26,35%	35,13%
Webb	34	15	9	10	44,12%	26,47%	29,41%	Average
WBA	253	62	64	127	24,51%	25,30%	50,20%
Webb	12	1	4	7	8,33%	33,33%	58,33%	Under
West Ham	641	210	164	267	32,76%	25,59%	41,65%
Webb	25	10	5	10	40,00%	20,00%	40,00%	Average
Wigan	291	81	73	137	27,84%	25,09%	47,08%
Webb	21	6	4	11	28,57%	19,05%	52,38%	Average

So we see that Webb is a ref who does all the teams. We notice that there are four teams who have less than 10g games. Those teams are Norwich, QPR, Southampton and Swansea. But still they have more than five games. The main reason is that those teams are rather new to the PL in the last seasons and he hasn’t done them in the lower divisions.  But still it means that we can have a look at all the teams.

Let us have a look at the teams who do better than their average when Webb is around. Manchester City, Reading, Stoke and Sunderland. Did you fall off your chair? Well I can imagine a few did almost. Yes; no United in the over achieving list. But their neighbours are in there.  I think their average is almost spot on with their average over the last seasons. But for their not so glorious past they get an over-achievement tag on them.

Let us have a look at the refs who perform close to their average when Dean is around. And in this category we can see teams like Aston Villa, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool (yes), Manchester United (yes), Norwich,  Tottenham and West Ham United. Liverpool has a slight under average number and Manchester United has a slight over average score.  But getting an over achievement score for Manchester United is more difficult to get as they have a high win percentage.

So who are the teams who under perform when Webb is around? Arsenal, Chelsea, Newcastle, QPR, Southampton, Swansea and West Bromwich Albion. Is it a coincidence that two of the teams who have challenged United most for the titles in let us say the last 10 years are underachieving with Webb?

We also notice that a few of the rather new teams under perform when Webb is the ref. This could be down to them playing big teams like Manchester United but also down to these teams only having done a few games under Webb and as a result the numbers are based on not that many games.  The under achievement of Arsenal and Chelsea however is well on a lot of games and so is a reason for concern.

But speaking of Arsenal I rather think that we do rather well in games with Webb that don’t include Manchester United. But apart from this season we usually get Webb for most United games and certainly at Old Trafford we have seen him more than we would have liked to see him.

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