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More analysis of the ‘cost per point’ data

By Insideright

I thought Walter’s excellent analysis of Mike’s data table last month deserved a little more attention.

Firstly the figures show that, across the EPL as a whole, it’s no good spending big, as did the likes of Spurs and Liverpool, when others like City, Man Utd. and Chelsea are spending very big. You may end up standing still but you’re not going to progress much versus the big boys.

Secondly your chances of league success are maximised by spending very big but not relying on sales to fund that expenditure. In other words your net spend has to be huge and that is only fundable (within FFP) by relatively high stadium revenues coupled with high sponsorship monies. In the past. financial doping was the only alternative – and that is now outlawed.

Arsenal, who top this ‘value-for-money’ league are actually 70% more efficient than Newcastle (who come second) and around 4500% more efficient than either Chelsea or Man City. In an increasingly Moneyball-orientated league Arsenal are so superior to everyone else (and for Arsenal read Wenger) that they could be half as efficient as they are and still be at or near the top of this table.

Which brings us to the question – why not be less cautious and ‘buy’ more points albeit at a marginally much greater cost? And that brings us to Club policy.

According to these numbers Arsenal would have had to spend, across that ten year period, another half a billion pounds to at least match Chelsea and Man City and, who is to say, those clubs would not just upped their spend even higher to fend us off. The policy decision was obviously to keep the powder dry until circumstances changed.

Whatever anyone says about the financial statements that Arsenal release (and however they use them to predict a transfer budget) the fact is that .in order to make sense of it. you have to go step further and get an understanding of budgeting policy. The data in Mike’s table confirms that Arsenal have only used money in the transfer market that has been gained from that same source. In other words no revenue gained directly or indirectly from fans (or from the sale of property) has found its way into the transfer budget. That can’t be just a coincidence – it has to be policy.

When you think about just what a hit and miss affair the transfer market is (for everyone, not just us) it could well be viewed as a very moral policy which prevents ‘our’ money being gambled but which has it allocated only to that which the Club is contractually obliged to pay i.e. wages, mortgage etc.

Obviously, since last summer (largely after Walter’s analysis finishes) there has been a surge in sponsorship revenues and this money, ‘gambled’ on us by outsiders in the hope of getting whatever return they are seeking, looks as though it has been, at least in part, allocated to the transfer fund. This has enabled the Club to move into new territory in the market for players and still to remain profitable.

As with most changes in business practice the effects will take time to fully display themselves. It’s the same with Chelsea and Man City as they change in order to fit in with the new FFP regulations but the likelihood is that the net effect will be beneficial for Arsenal.

16 comments to More analysis of the ‘cost per point’ data

  • Nekuhan

    Off topic, sorry. What Chelsea players were permitted today vs Liverpool was incredible, Ref. Taylor. Rotational fouling, no second yellow for Matic, no red for elbow by Ramirez, just one yellow for Oskar (should be 3-4), Cahill 2 handballs/penalties, second in 87th min, etc. Sounds familiar? Disgusting how Abramowitch & Moureen took the place of Red Nose Don Fungus and MUnited. Bravo PGMOL!!

  • AL

    Nekuhan
    I got a text from my brother who was watching 9000 miles which basically summed everything up pretty much the way you put it!

  • AL

    9000 mmiles away…

  • Mick

    Hazard did his party piece again and the ref fell for it. The same one he used to get Chambers booked where he sticks his leg out sideways in front of the opponent running alongside him making contact inevitable and thus manufacturing a free kick or penalty out of nothing. He used this ‘trick’ to win a penalty last week as well. He is a f******g cheat and it’s a disgrace our stupid refs keep getting fooled by it.

  • Shakabula Gooner

    Please add that: In the build up to Chelsea’s second goal, the ball went off play.

  • bjtgooner

    The alternative to spending “very big” to match the Oilers/KGB type clubs is the youth development project – Arsenal have progressed well along this route and seem to have some future stars in the pipeline.

    Re the Chelski match – I did not see all the match – but did see the Ramirez fore arm smash – straight from WWE, the Ivanovic wrist lock and the Cahill hand ball. Chelski are a good team but what a gang of cheats. As for the ref……

  • AL

    Bjt
    Lol. That’s how I described ramirez clothes-lining Sterling to a colleague. Was straight out of WWE, and to add salt to injury sterling conceded a free kick and yellow in the process! I think Chelsea have had wins gifted to them when they should have drawn; at least three matches I can think of – against us, QPR and Liverpool today.

  • Quincy

    Sterling blocked Ramires’s run first, and he retaliated with an elbow to his chin. Both deserved a yellow. But, it was basically Sterling’s first foul deserving a card, and Chelsea got away with a lot fouls that should have been carded…sound familiar?

    But Chelsea did get away with a lot, especially in the first half. Also Ivanovich was terrible, as always.

    Even Hazard is a very dirty player. Apparently refs do discuss individual players, e.g. divers, so they need to discuss Hazard, and watch for him cutting across a defender and WINNING THE FOUL, instead of being carded himself.

    And Costa up top is a real nasty piece of work, so obviously he feels at home at Chelsea. Should have been given a yellow at the very least once in the first half when he interfered with Mignolet trying to take a goal kick.

    Another anti-football tactic Chelsea love to use, is to pretend they don’t know which way a throw-in has been given, and then someone Chelsea player goes up to take it, which they did in the first. More un-sporting than anything else. And Ivanovich doing some really bad faking of an injury in the second half, should have got a yellow for time wasting and diving. Even the Chelsea medical staff took so long the ref was waving them on disgustedly.

    Please do a ref review of the Liverpool-Chelsea game.

  • Eric

    Ref was first tilting pool till they scored, then suddenly roles were reversed and stayed that way

  • Nekuhan

    Mick, Quincy,
    I watched Hazard when he was in France. He was not as you correctly discribed him. It’s crazy how within six months under Moureen every player and team become dirty, fouling, f**cking cheats. Drogba, Ramirez, Oskar, Ivanovic, Zambrotta, Eto’o, Ramos, Pepe, Marcelo … Porto, Chealse, Inter, Real … As long time ago one poster said that Moureen is the cancer, the worst thing that happened to football game these last 10-12 years. Disgusting approach, coupled with biased / incompetent referees, he got results but sickenig to watch.

    Off topic bis repetita, sorry. What City players were permitted today vs QPR was incredible, Ref. our friend Mick ‘f**cking’ Dean. Talking to City players, yellows for QPR (one was ok), Aguero handball to drible the centerhalf (goal for 1:1 scored), Hart double touched the ball, QPR scored, Dean invalidate the goal but did not give indirect free kick 8m from City’s goal line (Walter, am I right?), etc. Sounds familiar? Bravo PGMOL!

  • Tony Attwood

    The opening of this article is very profound in my view. Allow me to repeat the start

    Firstly the figures show that, across the EPL as a whole, it’s no good spending big, as did the likes of Spurs and Liverpool, when others like City, Man Utd. and Chelsea are spending very big. You may end up standing still but you’re not going to progress much versus the big boys.

    I think this is so clear it needs to be repeated over and over again.

    The solution to the problem is

    a) bring through youth players – which is know is hard because so many fall by the wayside

    b) find gems lurking under achieving with other clubs and bring them in. Danny W is one perhaps, Koscielny,

    c) Buy youngsters with huge potential. Theo, Ramsey, The Ox,

    d) Find the occasional star and even with a lot of money spent get value for money – with Alexis as an example.

    It is complex and it doesn’t make headlines but that is how you do it I guess

  • AL

    I agree with blending the occasional star with bringing in youthful players. That’s the only way to compete against these open cheque book approach sides, without breaking the bank and risking going under. Its a shame that not only do these mega spenders have an unfair advantage over the amounts available to spend, but it also seems that ref tilting favours them to get the desired results.

  • Nekuhan

    Thanks AL,
    Give my kind regards to your brother. We were watching the same match 9’000 miles away through the same glasses … the glasses of objectivity. Not the ones of PGMOL. Such a beautiful game distroyed by corrupted people sitting in the highest institutions of the game. Untold -> Keep the good work up!

  • Pat

    Well at least Phil Neville on Match of the Day agreed that both the Cahill hand balls should have been penalties. And he pointed out that Antony Taylor (remember him?) must have seen the second one as it was directly in his eyeline.

    So the combination of the very big money teams and the PGMOL make for an unfair playing field.

    Interesting points about Mourinho and the kind of football he gets his players to play. Sickening!

  • Nekuhan

    Oh, I saw the replay of Chelsea vs QPR, Aguero was also offside. MOTD were not impressed by Aguero’s handball, found it nearly normal, ‘great technique’ they said! Could not beleive my ears!

  • Nekuhan

    Yes Pat,
    Realy sickening and he’s medias darling!? Can not understand today’s so called ‘journalists’ and their readers. Sad times.