Arsenal’s win percentages; why we need Theo next season

By Walter Broeckx

The season is over; time to have a look back. I will go in to individual players later on in this most silly of silly seasons, but now I first want to take a look at some numbers.

Numbers like winning, drawing and losing matches in the different competitions and then mix them all together and see what the outcome has been for us this season.

Played Won Draw Lost For Against
PL Home 19 12 5 2 41 14
63,16% 26,32% 10,53% 2,16 0,74
Played Won Draw Lost For Against
PL Away 19 10 4 5 30 22
52,63% 21,05% 26,32% 1,58 1,16
PL TOTAL Played Won Draw Lost For Against
38 22 9 7 71 36
57,89% 23,68% 18,42% 1,87 0,95


Let us start with the PL matches at home. A rather good win percentage of 63% in our home matches. Not bad I would say. We only lost two matches at home all season and both defeats could have been avoided.  I’m still mystified on why we didn’t win against Manchester United and the Swansea defeat seemed to be more about a team switching off a bit with the FA Cup final in mind.

Away from home we won more than half of our matches. But we also suffered five defeats away from home. Chelsea, Swansea, Stoke, Southampton  and those who some of us are not allowed to call shit. [Actually Walter, I think there is a new song for Tottenham, which goes, “Tottenham Hotspur, Tottenham Hotspur, we’re not allowed to call you shit, we’re not allowed to call you shit.”   Sorry, just thought I’d throw that in.  Please do carry on.]

I think that in all these matches we could have avoided defeat.

But in some of those matches (four of them) we were without some key players like Özil, Giroud, Ramsey. Or we got kicked to pieces unpunished. And didn’t have Coquelin blocking the opposition apart from one match.

If we look at the total picture we have a win percentage in the PL of 57,89%. And that is not bad at all. Avoiding the defeats, should I say avoiding the avoidable defeats, would make a very big difference I think.

When we look at the goals scored we see that at home we usually score more than two goals and concede less than one goal. So a 2-1 or a 2-0 win is a very likely result for Arsenal at home this season.

Away from home we only scored 1,58 goals on average. I think raising that number would see us win many more points. So what we need is a good away from home striker. Someone who is fast and can cause troubles on a quick counter attack.

Hello Theo are you fit for next season?

And this is where it gets interesting I think. Because if we look at the matches that Theo started we see that he only started in four matches in the PL and came on as a sub in 10. Now the interesting part is that the matches we started had this score:

  • Against Hull a 3-0 win in the FA cup
  • Against Brighton and Hove Albion won 3-2 in the FA cup
  • Against Aston Villa won 5-0
  • Against Leicester won 2-1
  • Against West Ham United won 3-0
  • Against West Brom won 4-1
  • Against Aston Villa won 4-0 in the FA cup

So in the sevem  matches Theo started we won all of them and scored 24 goals and that is an average of 3.4 goals per match. And we conceded four goals and that is an average of 0.57 goals per match. That is almost the double goals scored per match when he started and also almost half the goals conceded when he started.

One could say just his presence is enough to make other teams more cautious.

If we look at the Champions league we get this table

Played Won Draw Lost For Against
CL Home 5 3 1 1 11 7
60,00% 20,00% 20,00% 2,20 1,40
Played Won Draw Lost For Against
CL Away 5 3 1 1 8 4
60,00% 20,00% 20,00% 1,60 0,80
CL Total Played Won Draw Lost For Against
10 6 2 2 19 11
60,00% 20,00% 20,00% 1,90 1,10

The win % both home and away are identical. A win % of 60% against the teams from Europe is not bad. If only we could stop messing around in that first leg of the round of 16 would be nice. Note that in Europe we concede more goals at home than away. Of course the quality of the opposition in Europe with teams who are top teams in their country can play a part in that.

But again a rather good report I would say.

I could now publish the same numbers about the FA cup. But hell we all know that our win percent in the FA Cup has been 100% last season. And the season before. Someone came up with this nice statistic about Özil. Since he joined us he has been around in 10 FA cup matches and we won them all. So he is our lucky charm for the FA cup one could say. Will he bring us three in a row next season? I sure hope so.

Let us now take a look at the whole season and at all the matches played in the season

ALL COMPETITIONS Played Won Draw Lost For Against
HOME 27 17 6 4 57 23
62,96% 22,22% 14,81% 2,11 0,85
Played Won Draw Lost For Against
AWAY 26 15 5 6 43 29
57,69% 19,23% 23,08% 1,65 1,12
Played Won Draw Lost For Against
TOTAL 56 35 11 10 109 53
62,50% 19,64% 17,86% 1,95 0,95

And then we see that our home win percentage is just under 63%. Only four defeats in 27 home matches this season. Not bad I would say. And we also won all our three matches at a neutral venue. As it is in London we could count them as home matches?

Away from home in all competitions we had a win percentage of 57,69%. Not bad at all I think. When we go away from home we come home with a victory for 6 out of the 10 games almost.

And if we look at all the matches in total we see that we have a win percentage of 62,50% overall. We scored just under two goals and conceded just under one goal per match on average. Should we just use new lyrics for the song: 1-0 to the Arsenal and make it 2-1 to the Arsenal

Anyway, if Theo reads this and uses it to give him a big pay rise when he talks with Arsenal so be it, as I think he has a big importance for Arsenal. Sorry Ivan and Arsène if he does and forces you to pay more than you wanted. But I can only report the numbers as they are.


  • 5 June 1903: Fred Dwight signed. He played for Chesham Town from 1899 until 1901 when he moved to Fulham, and then after a further two years moved on to Woolwich Arsenal in 1903.

The complete Arsenal on this day index is now here with around 5000 major events in Arsenal’s history recorded.  May and June recently fully updated.


13 Replies to “Arsenal’s win percentages; why we need Theo next season”

  1. can’t wait for the rest of your analyses Walter. As you know, I love a good statistic or two 🙂

    Nevertheless, whilst I fully hope we retain Theo and believe him to be a great asset to the club, I have to say that the seven matches he started were hardly against top notch opposition so I don’t think we should read too much into that.

    Did you do an analysis of the 10 matches in which he came on as a sub and whether his introduction actually changed anything?

  2. Great work Walter. I am especially pleased as I am such a huge admirer of Theo, as those that read Untold will know, and your analysis backs up exactly what I think.

    “One could say just his presence is enough to make other teams more cautious.”

    That point is so true.

    I’ve been saying for years that he’s my first name on the team sheet if for nothing other than the way he affects the way the opposition has to set up because of his pace. But in reality that is being unfair to Theo because he has so much more to his game than that. When Theo starts, more often than not the opposition are on the back foot before we even start.

    I never usually go down this route, but I have to say….pay him what it needs to keep him.

    I read in the Sun the other, I know it was hanging around the mess room, that Sterling was valued at £60 Million.

    Then in another article on the same day they valued Theo at £20 Million.

    The suggestion was, we should use Theo in part exchange for Sterling.


    Are these people for real ?

  3. Jambug,

    We all know that those who own and report on Liverpool are on another planet in a galaxy far far away. One fit Theo is greater than two Sterlings not the other way round and no-one is going to pay anywhere near £60m for a flock of Sterlings let alone a single specimen.

  4. Walter,

    Your last table doesn’t add up. There is a discrepancy of three in both the total games played and games won columns. Hence the percentages are out as well.

  5. Walter
    I agree with you re Theo and Jambug with regard to Theo’s pace. A little off topic but in all the talk about who Arsenal need the subject of pace rarely comes up. The game gets faster every year. I think the big, tough but slow teams will go the way of the dinosaur. If you look at the top sides in Europe, i.e., Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, it’s pace at almost every position. Arsenal is poised to join them, I think, and part of the reason is pace. If you field a side with Bellerin, Wilshire, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Walcott, Welbeck, Sanchez pace alone will cause grave problems for most opposition. Add the finishing qualities of those mentioned and you have a real monster on your hands. Arsene Wenger is more aware of this than us at home. This is the kind of squad he’s building and I feel that this is the kind of squad that is poised to win and win consistently. The aaa and media experts say we need this, we need that never looking to the sides that do win consistently in all competitions. Pique may the only Barca starter not exactly fleet of foot. I know the squad presents a selection problem but if everyone is healthy for a full season the goal tally from sumptuous Ozil and Cazorla passes to the pacey players up front will be staggering. And with this past season’s team defense to build on the team will contend. WILL CONTEND. Even without a significant pick up in the transfer market. As the saying goes…….SPEED KILLS.

  6. Gotta go Goonermikey in saying that you painted a rosier than real picture of Walcott’s stats. But in fairness to myself, I would have protested too if too much meaning is being read to the stats of a player who played during a difficult time against difficult oppositions and we have too many than usual dropped points.

  7. A fit and firing theo is a very important player for,U.S. We,need to keep him, and if for whatever reason we don’t, we have to bring,the likes of Ox up to speed. Just don’t see sterling as an alternative, nor do I think Liverpool would see to us for anything other than a ridiculous price

  8. Hope that link from para @ June 5, 2015 at 3:17 pm , means some changes at PGMOL , but not holding my breath !
    With less or no injuries , a fair shake from the referees, and retaining our star players , and fingers crossed ,we should have a very good tilt in all competitions .
    Go Gunners !

  9. When it comes to refs it doesn’t matter how many, as long as they work for PGMO, they are tainted. It is a bit like septic, his legacy will need more than dettol to clean up.

    The FA need to change & make more room for younger (under 40) decision makers. The officiating must not be a monopoly Limited company but must have individual registered qualified officials directly employed by the FA. The appointment to matches must be by open ballot so that every official has equal chance of officiating a big team. Current biased selection is unfair for all (apart from the pockets of the corrupt).

    Until the FA changes, football in England will be open to corruption.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *