13 responses

  1. Usama Zaka
    08/11/2016

    A weekly reminder to all readers (even the Spuds):

    Before anyone mentions that how in the world Arsenal have had only one wrong major decision gone in their favour.. and going to list the decisons that we got away with, I will list them with explanation (as we have been doing since the very start of the season for every decision in every match possible)

    Someone earlier listed the decisions that we escaped away with and that thanks to refs we have 6 points extra….

    1. Bellerin foul on Musa Penalty (vs Leicester)
    This was by far the most doubtful decision so far in the season, even with 5 different replays and slowing down to the slightest bit, there were different conclusions (both correct and wrong). If you see above in the table for Mark Clattenburg you will see an asterisk for him in the penalties.

    Even if the referee had given the penalty, it would have been correct. The only reason we considered it as a correct non-penalty was because there was no conclusive foul contact that the replays showed.

    Also even if we consider it a penalty we got away with, this doesn’t changes the other 3 major decisions that went against us in that same match and cost us 2 points. Vardy escaped with two clear yellows, Wes Morgan Penalty foul on Koscienly, and Huth Penalty foul on Holding.

    For more read here… http://untold-arsenal.com/archives/55588

    2. Fonte foul on Giroud Penalty (vs Southmapton)
    Pulling the shirt to the extent of removing and tripping the player with challenge from behind apparently is enough for some people to view it as a foul. Clear penalty.

    Again, even if we consider it as a wrong penalty that we got away it, this doesn’t changes the other 2 major decisions that went against us in that same match and nearly cost us. Fonte escaping two yellows (only being booked for dissent). and Fonte Penalty foul on Koscienly.

    For more read here …. http://untold-arsenal.com/archives/56292

    3. Koscienly Handball Goal (vs Burnley)
    Yes, the ball touched his hand and went it the goal, BUT (sorry for capitalized but) here Koscienly first kicked the ball, which then lobbed over and hit his hand (which he had already pulled back to take the shot). And the handball laws clearly mention of the intention, for in this case was none. Clean goal.

    Again, even if we consider it as a wrong goal, that we got away it, this doesn’t changes the other 3 major decisions that went against us in that same match and nearly cost us again. Keane handling the ball with a wide stretched arm in the box, Vokes escaping a red card by the elbowing the forehead of Mustafi and causing him to bleed. And the second penalty which Burnley escaped with when Keane deliberately slapped the ball of Walcott’s dribble.

    For more read here… http://untold-arsenal.com/archives/56601

    4. Spuds Offside own goal (vs Spuds)

    No, this was a clean goal and was not offside.

    IFAB Laws of the game 2016-17

    11.2 Offside offence
    A player in an offside position at the moment the ball is played or touched by a is only penalised on becoming involved in active play by:

    1. interfering with play by playing or touching a ball passed or touched by a team-mate or
    2. preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision or
    3. challenging an opponent for the ball or
    4. clearly attempting to play a ball which is close to him when this action impacts on an opponent
    5. making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball

    In all of the five cases above Sanchez is safe in all of them. He was just in an offside position and that’s all, of course he didn’t really controlled mind of the Spuds’ player to head in his own goal. 😀

  2. Usama Zaka
    08/11/2016

    Tony and Andrew,

    Can you please check my comment in moderation and let it through (I know its in moderation because of multiple links added in the comment). Thanks.

  3. Usama Zaka
    08/11/2016

    *****CORRECTION for my comment on 08/11/2016 at 6:47 pm

    2. Fonte foul on Giroud Penalty (vs Southmapton)
    Pulling the shirt to the extent of removing and tripping the player with challenge from behind apparently is ***not*** enough for some people to view it as a foul. Clear penalty.

  4. SamuelAkinsolaAdebosin
    08/11/2016

    OT.
    Is Jason Cunny, a former Chelsea and Tottenham player such a confused man who has appeared can’t differentiate his right hand from the left one?

    If not, what on earth has come over him that got him so confused that he can’t recognise a top world class player like Ozil of Arsenal when he sees him? Is he blind or something else is the matter with his thinking that got his so low to be saying Ozil is not world class? If he’s not, what then is he? A world dropout?

    If Jason may know, any of the 2 London clubs he had played for will be more than glad to have Ozil in their team. If I may remind Jason, Tottenham tried by all means to stall the transfer of Ozil from Real Madrid to Arsenal because of the superior skills he has. Even Anthony Conte will be happy if Ozil is available for a move away from Arsenal,((God forbids). For, he’ll surely convinced Abram Abramovich to give him at least £60m if not more to enabled him submit a bid for Ozil. And Jason called that not a world class player?

  5. finsbury
    08/11/2016

    Er, does it all even out at the end of the day (season)?

    If it doesn’t, should I pray, or hope that my clubs starts to overspend by 200% whilst signing players from Sammy Lee’s mates?

  6. Gord
    08/11/2016

    Is November a bad month for Arsenal?

    Next thing on my data agenda, was runs length. The smallest number of events for Wenger is losses (between 17 and 18 percent). We have 82 isolated losses, 18 sets of 2 losses in a row, and a single occurence of 3 losses in a row. As a table:

    Losses
    _1 82
    _2 18
    _3 _1

    Similar data for draws (about 25%):

    Draws
    _1 111
    _2 _26
    _3 __5
    _4 __2
    _5 __1

    Wins (the big table for Wenger)

    Wins
    _1 76
    _2 37
    _3 35
    _4 10
    _5 10
    _6 _2
    _7 _2
    _8 _2
    _9 _1
    10 _1

    With all of this data I am spitting out, if you see an error, tell me. Manually entering 20+ years of data could have a mistake or two in it.

  7. Gord
    08/11/2016

    It would seem Wenger is pretty good at stopping a run of losses from occurring, with the longest run being a single instance of 3 games in a row. While the losses and draws distributions look similar, the wins distribution is stretched out.

    Many stories about Alexis tearing a calf muscle in training for Chile. Some stories say he could be out for months, and some say he could still play for Chile against Uruguay. Little difference in opinion between the story tellers, don’t you think? If he is seriously injured, I would think he would be on his way back to London.

    In terms of Alexis being out for _MONTHS_, if we remember that the longest a month can possibly be is 31 days and 1 second, any duration longer than that is technically more than 1 month, and hence could be referred to as a plural.

  8. Gord
    08/11/2016

    The mythical November slump.

    I am looking at the data by day number, not month/day. I’ve run averaging over 4 games, 5 games and 6 games over the data, and there is a “feature” in the data which is persistent. But this feature seems to be centered on about day 340. The first of December is about day 335. This feature looks to be about 3 weeks wide. So, mid-November to end of first week of December.

    If you are going to average N games, the sum of points will never take on the value 3*N-1. This apparently makes this feature more visible on the high points per game side. But, the feature is also present on the low points per game side.

    What seems to be happening, is that over those about 3 weeks, our average point production doesn’t change much (it is still about 2), but the variance gets smaller.

    I would still be inclined to say this is just a statistical anomaly, caused by not enough data.

    And if 20+ years of data isn’t enough, you can imagine the records of most managers to have all kinds of features which are just noise.

  9. Gord
    08/11/2016

    > So, mid-November to end of first week of December.

    Oops, sorry end of November to mid December. It is centered on about Dec 5.

  10. Gord
    09/11/2016

    I looked at the data yet another way, and this low feature has a slightly lower mean points per game (maybe 1.7), but the variance has gone up from about 1.18 on a monthly basis to about 1.38. An apparent difference of 0.3 with a SD of 1.2 (or more)? It is not a meaningful difference.

    This new way put the center of the feature at about Dec 1, instead of Dec 5 or so. So, describing it as a November slump isn’t accurate anyway.

    For about 2 months, starting about the end of the mid-season transfer window, a moving average of points per game looks like like a straight line with a positive slope. So what would cause a change in behavior from the end of March though the end of season? The relegation battles?

    There appeared to be a meaningful slope to the first 6 weeks of the year, which may have to do with players coming back from international duty. It is barely seen in this data, as sort of a lip at the very beginning of the data.

  11. Gord
    09/11/2016

    I’m babysitting some yeast (making mead), so I have time to play.

    This next method to look at short duration behavior, started with a window that was a month wide (30 or 31 days). I’ve just run 24day and 18 day.

    How consistent is this scheduling of internationals in November? What this looks like to me (now), is that the first game back after the November international break is a problem. Just like this time, where rumors of Alexis having a torn calf muscle abound.

    But there are other breaks for internationals. Why is this one special?

  12. para
    09/11/2016

    I think people underestimate the onset of cold weather on bones, bodies and on previous injuries,(us older ones know this well).

  13. Menace
    09/11/2016

    Para – indeed that why I listen to lizzie’s wisdom & bugger off to Goa – home of Fenny, sorpotel, sannas, fish curry & mandos.
    Pirez is also here playing for Goa. Ooooops I forgot hot sun & warm seas.

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