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Arsenal v Newcastle: the data predicts 2-1 or maybe 3-1 home win.

By Bulldog Drummond

Now here’s a quaint idea: a match at Arsenal on a saturday at 3pm.  How weird.

But us supporters like to take advantage of the new so we’ve got a little get together of the London, Northants and Antwerp branches of Untold for the game which will be rather nice.

But what will we see?  Hopefully not another draw, but an Arsenal win.  So let’s ponder the stats as usual to see.  Here is the home games chart…

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Manchester United 9 8 0 1 22 3 19 24
2 Manchester City 8 7 1 0 28 6 22 22
3 Arsenal 8 7 0 1 21 7 14 21
4 Tottenham Hotspur 9 5 3 1 16 6 10 18
5 Liverpool 9 4 5 0 14 3 11 17
6 Burnley 9 5 2 2 7 3 4 17

Despite the Man U defeat it is still a fairly healthy record, and yes, annoyingly, Tottenham are doing better at home than we predicted.  And that home games table reminds us that there are many ways of getting points – including scoring just seven goals at home in nine games and being sixth in the table – in the style of Burnley.  Thankfully we don’t have to watch that each home match.

Away from home Newcastle are not doing so well with just one away win and two draws.

Pos Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Manchester City 9 9 0 0 24 5 19 27
2 Chelsea 9 6 1 2 18 7 11 19
3 Manchester United 8 4 2 2 15 8 7 14
4 Liverpool 8 4 2 2 20 17 3 14
5 Burnley 8 4 2 2 9 9 0 14
6 Tottenham Hotspur 8 4 1 3 14 8 6 13
7 Watford 9 4 1 4 16 13 3 13
8 Leicester City 9 3 4 2 16 14 2 13
9 Arsenal 9 2 3 4 9 13 -4 9
10 AFC Bournemouth 9 2 2 5 6 11 -5 8
11 Brighton and Hove Albion 9 2 1 6 5 11 -6 7
12 Everton 9 1 4 4 7 17 -10 7
13 Southampton 7 1 3 3 5 9 -4 6
14 West Bromwich Albion 9 1 3 5 4 10 -6 6
15 Swansea City 8 1 2 5 4 8 -4 5
16 Newcastle United 8 1 2 5 7 14 -7 5
17 Stoke City 9 1 2 6 9 21 -12 5
18 Huddersfield Town 8 1 1 6 3 18 -15 4
19 West Ham United 9 0 3 6 6 21 -15 3
20 Crystal Palace 8 0 2 6 0 13 -13 2

So we have scored 21 goals at home and they have scored 7 away with each club having played eight in this regard.  Roughly speaking that is 2.5 goals a game for us, and one for them, giving a projected result of 2-1 or 3-1.   This is confirmed by the fact that we concede roughly one goal in each home game and they concede two.

Across the last ten games Newcastle have been having a rotten time…

Date Game Res Score Competition
21 Oct 2017 Newcastle United v Crystal Palace W 1-0 Premier League
30 Oct 2017 Burnley v Newcastle United L 1-0 Premier League
04 Nov 2017 Newcastle United v Bournemouth L 0-1 Premier League
07 Nov 2017 Oldham Ath v Newcastle United L 4-1 League Trophy
18 Nov 2017 Manchester Utd v Newcastle Utd L 4-1 Premier League
25 Nov 2017 Newcastle United v Watford L 0-3 Premier League
28 Nov 2017 West Bromwich v Newcastle Utd D 2-2 Premier League
02 Dec 2017 Chelsea v Newcastle United L 3-1 Premier League
09 Dec 2017 Newcastle United v Leicester City L 2-3 Premier League
13 Dec 2017 Newcastle United v Everton L 0-1 Premier League

One win (against Palace, whom everyone beats, but only by a single goal), eight defeats and a draw.  Also in five of these games they have let in three or four.

Our last ten looks like this

Deate Game Res Score Competition
02 Nov 2017 Arsenal v Crvena Zvezda D 0-0 UEFA Europa League
05 Nov 2017 Manchester City v Arsenal L 3-1 Premier League
18 Nov 2017 Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur W 2-0 Premier League
23 Nov 2017 1.FC Köln v Arsenal L 1-0 UEFA Europa League
26 Nov 2017 Burnley v Arsenal W 0-1 Premier League
29 Nov 2017 Arsenal v Huddersfield Town W 5-0 Premier League
02 Dec 2017 Arsenal v Manchester United L 1-3 Premier League
07 Dec 2017 Arsenal v FC BATE Borisov W 6-0 UEFA Europa League
10 Dec 2017 Southampton v Arsenal D 1-1 Premier League
13 Dec 2017 West Ham United v Arsenal D 0-0 Premier League

Four wins three defeats and three draws.  Not exactly what we were hoping for.

In terms of injuries Newcastle don’t have the excuse there because physioroom is showing them with none.  They are still reporting Santi as an injury although he’s not registered as a player at the moment, giving us

PLAYER What’s wrong? When does he return? Available?
A Ramsey Hamstring Injury December 22, 2017 Major Doubt
S Mustafi Thigh Muscle Strain December 16, 2017
S Cazorla Plantaris Injury No Return Date No

So that suggests Mustafi could play in the back line, although if we go as a back four again we could have Monreal and Koscielny there leaving no place for Mustafi except for on the beach.

But let us hand the last word to Paul Merson who allegedly said

“Nothing has changed at Arsenal. We are 17 games into the season and they are below Burnley. That is embarrassing. You can understand after five or six games, if someone gets off to a flying start, but this is 17 games in. I don’t know where Arsenal are going. I have said before that Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil will probably stay but now I think they have to go because they are doing nothing. Still, I expect them to win this game. If they could have handpicked any team to play it would be Newcastle, who have completely gone.”

Prediction: Arsenal 4-0 Newcastle

I’m fascinated in the use of the word “embarrassing” these days – it crops up all the time at the moment on the bloggettas and with the punditarati.  (That’s literati but with pundits).   Who is embarrassed?  Is Merson saying Arsenal are embarrassed, or that he is embarrassed, or we are embarrassed or … well, at least he wasn’t accusing anyone of knowing nothing because they are foreign.

Small mercies and all that.

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8 comments to Arsenal v Newcastle: the data predicts 2-1 or maybe 3-1 home win.

  • Josif

    We are on a rather good run against Newcastle United. Ever since the day Joey Barton tricked Gervinho into getting a red card and Alex Song to get a subsequent suspension (0:0 on the opening day of 2011-12), Arsenal have played nine games against Newcastle in the league and won all of them.

    2011-12

    Arsenal-Newcastle 2:1 (Vermaelen’s 95th minute winner to complete our come-back against one of the most time-wasting opponents we have seen at the Emirates and that’s quite a feat)

    2012-13

    Arsenal-Newcastle 7:3 (a spectacular game with Messi-sque performance from Theo who got himself a hat-trick and a start of a beautiful friendship between Ollie Giroud and Newcastle’s net as the handsome Frenchman scored twice as a super-sub)

    Newcastle-Arsenal 0:1 (Koscielny’s volley to secure a fourth-place finish although the biggest laugh for The Gooners was the moment when Spurs were informed Newcastle equalized)

    2013-14

    Newcastle-Arsenal 0:1 (Giroud’s header)

    Arsenal-Newcastle 3:0 (Özil’s offside goal was given (!!!) by Neil Swarbrick, Giroud scored again and another St Totteringham’s Day was secured)

    2014-15

    Arsenal-Newcastle 4:1 (Giroud scored twice as well as Santi Cazorla in a game where we should have won with even a bigger margin but Lee Mason made sure it didn’t happen)

    Newcastle-Arsenal 1:2 (two goals from Giroud again)

    2015-16

    Newcastle-Arsenal 0:1 (Oxlade-Chamberlain’s shot was deflected by Coloccini in one of the most boring matches I can recall of)

    Arsenal-Newcastle 1:0 (Koscielny scored for a victory)

    Newcastle were relegated but not before they helped us to secure St Totteringham’s Day by completing a double over Tottenham in the very last game of the season (5:1).

    They are managed by Rafa Benitez, one of the managers I have a big respect for. Benitez has won La Liga twice with Valencia (which is the same like doing it eight times with Barcelona/Real), UEFA Cup/Europa League with both Valencia and Chelsea and Champions League with Liverpool. He’s been the only Liverpool manager to finish above Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal more than once (three times between 2004-05 and 2009-10). His spells with Inter and Real were less impressive.

    The last encounter between Arsene Wenger and Rafa Benitez was a league match between Arsenal and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in 2012-13. Chelsea won 2:1 in a very controversial match that was officiated by Martin Atkinson.

  • Goonermikey

    I’m embarrassed for Paul Merson…………………….

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Let’s forget about us getting embarrassed by the football pundits and concentrate on how Arsenal will rediscover their game winning form in the Premier League after collecting 2 points from the possible 9 on offer in their last 3 PL games.

    Rafael Benitez’s Newcastle team is currently on the rocks receiving battering from any team they play against in the PL. But as a result of this constant battering being heaped on the Magipies by teams in the PL this season, The Magipies may fancy having a chance to stop the rut when they take on the Gunners at Ems on Saturday. The Gunners should then be very careful not to take beating the Magipies for granted. But work very hard on the Ems field of play and be very efficient in front of goal. And also keep a close eye in ex Gunner, Issac Hayden who may want to cause a havoc in the game against Arsenal for not keeping him at the club but sold him to Newcastle.

    Can Arsenal win their next 4 Premier League games at home to Newcastle and Liverpool and at away to Roy Hugdson’s Crystal Palace and WBA? And of course beat the Hammers in the Carabao Cup semifinal match at the Ems before this year turnaround? I think Arsenal should start a 4 game winning run in PL starting by beating Newcastle convincingly tomorrow in the PL at the Ems.

    My 3-4-2-1 starts and 7 man bench for Newcastle.

    Starts:
    Cech
    Koscielny Monreal Kolasinac
    Bellerin Wilshere Coquelin Maitland
    Oezil Sanchez
    Lacazette.

    Bench:
    Ospina Holding Metersacker ElNeny Xhaka Iwobi Giroud.

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Let’s forget about us getting embarrassed by the football pundits and concentrate on how Arsenal will rediscover their game winning form in the Premier League after collecting 2 points from the possible 9 on offer in their last 3 PL games.

    Rafael Benitez’s Newcastle team is currently on the rocks receiving battering from any team they play against in the PL. But as a result of this constant battering being heaped on the Magipies by teams in the PL this season, The Magipies may fancy having a chance to stop the rut when they take on the Gunners at the Ems on Saturday. The Gunners should then be very careful not to take beating the Magipies for granted. But work very hard on the Ems field of play and be very efficient in front of goal. And also keep a close eye on ex Gunner, Issac Hayden who may want to cause a havoc in the game against Arsenal for not keeping him at the club but sold him to Newcastle.

    Can Arsenal win their next 4 Premier League games at home to Newcastle and Liverpool and at away to Roy Hugdson’s Crystal Palace and WBA? And of course beat the Hammers in the Carabao Cup semifinal match at the Ems before this year turnaround? I think Arsenal should start a 4 game winning run in the PL starting by beating Newcastle convincingly tomorrow in a PL match at the Ems.

    My 3-4-2-1 starts and 7 man bench for Newcastle.

    Starts:
    Cech
    Koscielny Monreal Kolasinac
    Bellerin Wilshere Coquelin Maitland
    Oezil Sanchez
    Lacazette.

    Bench:
    Ospina Holding Metersacker ElNeny Xhaka Iwobi Giroud.

    Sorry for my reposting.

  • Josif

    I’d go with

    Čech

    Debuchy Koscielny Monreal Kolašinac

    Coquelin Elneny

    Özil

    Walcott Lacazette Welbeck

  • Alexanderhenry

    It is embarrassing for arsenal football club to be below Burnley after 17 games; the players, the management and the fans.

    There you are. I explained it for you.
    How do you feel about it?

  • Alexanderhenry, I wouldn’t call your response about embarrassing, itself embarrassing. More, rather pointless and not very interesting.

  • Menace

    There is no embarrassment with our league position. The embarrassment if any should be with the FA & PGMOL for cheating us of victories by foul means – ignoring off sides & allowing fouls to injure our players. There are those who visit this blog who cannot see & suffer the same blindness that the officials do, they are an embarrassment to their natural gifts.