by Bulldog Drummond
It seems forever since we had a real match to look forward to, but now we do, and we can return to the issue of home and away form.
This is not an absolute way of predicting results but it certainly can work – and seems to work as well as, if not better than, most forms of prediction. Indeed we’ve been so encouraged by the approach that we’re going to open a new site looking at predictions for a variety of matches made on this basis. Details to follow shortly.
But for now, here is the away form league. As always Tottenham are playing more away games to avoid having to use Wembley, what with New WHL being of the “unopened” variety of sporting stadia at this moment.
(Interestingly Construction News, which exposed the problems at New WHL, is in this month’s issue running a big story about modern slavery on building sites, but I am sure there is no connection with the previous issue.)
So, better than last season most certainly for Arsenal.
If we go back to November 2015 – the last season where Arsenal finished up in a Champions League spot, the away record around this time was
|2||West Ham United||6||4||1||1||12||6||6||13|
This emphasises what a collapse in away form Arsenal had last season – in 2015/16 we had played six and won five, and were the best away team in the league. We’re not back to that level at this moment, but it is interesting that the number of goals scored in those six away games in 2015/16 was the same as this season. Just the defence that needs sorting.
So there is still good reason to believe that we are progressing in terms of taking our away form back to what it used to be in the seasons when we got the non-trophy of being fourth or better.
Now we need to compare this with the home form of Bournemouth
|8||Brighton and Hove Albion||5||3||1||1||8||6||2||10|
Three wins for them at home, two draws and a defeat, to compare with Arsenal’s away form of three wins, one draw and one defeat.
Those figures suggest a draw, and this is further confirmed by goal difference – Arsenal’s away GD is five Bournemouth’s is four.
But this feeling of a draw inevitability is slightly undermined by the fact that Arsenal’s last three away games (excluding the two Checkatrade games played recently) give us
|07 Oct||Fulham v Arsenal||W||1-5||Premier League|
|25 Oct||Sporting Clube Portugal v Arsenal||W||0-1||Europa League|
|28 Oct||Crystal Palace v Arsenal||D||2-2||Premier League|
As for Bournemouth’s last three home games we see one win, one draw and one defeat
|20 Oct||Bournemouth v Southampton||D||0-0||Premier League|
|30 Oct||Bournemouth v Norwich City||W||2-1||League Cup|
|03 Nov||Bournemouth v Manchester Utd||L||1-2||Premier League|
The south coast derby against Southampton was a bit of an anomoly and certainly for the locals as much a grudge match as playing Tottenham is at Arsenal Stadium. But Manchester Utd did show that Bournemouth can be beaten at what used to be Dean Court but is called something else now.
Certainly 1-1 or for Arsenal to win, 1-2 as Man U achieved, is possibly the most we can hope for. Bournemouth’s defeat to Man U however was their one and only home defeat this season.
Last season however Bournemouth won seven, drew five and lost seven at home, with a goal difference of minus four, showing that what has been happening this season has been a major improvement for them. In which case it may not last.
More on this game anon.
- The Premier League action against Man City brings Super League ever closer
- What Europe knows about Man C but the English press haven’t told you
- Arsenal v Manchester City Women’s Continental League Cup semi-final – match preview
- How Man City’s problems began to arise…. nine years ago
- The media pile into Manchester City, but where have they been all this time?