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Bournemouth v Arsenal, predictions based on the home and away form.

by Bulldog Drummond

It seems forever since we had a real match to look forward to, but now we do, and we can return to the issue of home and away form.

This is not an absolute way of predicting results but it certainly can work – and seems to work as well as, if not better than, most forms of prediction.  Indeed we’ve been so encouraged by the approach that we’re going to open a new site looking at predictions for a variety of matches made on this basis.  Details to follow shortly.

But for now, here is the away form league.  As always Tottenham are playing more away games to avoid having to use Wembley, what with New WHL being of the “unopened” variety of sporting stadia at this moment.

(Interestingly Construction News, which exposed the problems at New WHL, is in this month’s issue running a big story about modern slavery on building sites, but I am sure there is no connection with the previous issue.)

Away games…

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Tottenham Hotspur 8 7 0 1 15 6 9 21
2 Liverpool 6 4 2 0 9 4 5 14
3 Chelsea 5 4 1 0 12 1 11 13
4 Manchester City 5 3 2 0 9 1 8 11
5 Arsenal 5 3 1 1 14 9 5 10
6 Manchester United 7 3 1 3 12 13 -1 10
7 AFC Bournemouth 6 3 0 3 10 9 1 9
8 Leicester City 6 3 0 3 9 10 -1 9
9 Watford 6 2 2 2 7 6 1 8
10 Wolverhampton Wanderers 6 2 2 2 4 5 -1 8

So, better than last season most certainly for Arsenal.

If we go back to November 2015 – the last season where Arsenal finished up in a Champions League spot, the away record around this time was

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Arsenal 6 5 0 1 14 5 9 15
2 West Ham United 6 4 1 1 12 6 6 13
3 Leicester City 6 3 3 0 12 9 3 12
4 Crystal Palace 6 4 0 2 8 5 3 12
5 Manchester City 6 3 2 1 7 4 3 11

This emphasises what a collapse in away form Arsenal had last season – in 2015/16 we had played six and won five, and were the best away team in the league.  We’re not back to that level at this moment, but it is interesting that the number of goals scored in those six away games in 2015/16 was the same as this season.  Just the defence that needs sorting.

So there is still good reason to believe that we are progressing in terms of taking our away form back to what it used to be in the seasons when we got the non-trophy of being fourth or better.

Now we need to compare this with the home form of Bournemouth

Pos Team P W D L F A D Pts
1 Manchester City 7 7 0 0 27 4 23 21
2 Liverpool 6 5 1 0 14 1 13 16
3 Chelsea 7 4 3 0 15 7 8 15
4 Arsenal 7 4 2 1 12 6 6 14
5 Everton 6 4 1 1 12 6 6 13
6 Watford 6 4 0 2 10 8 2 12
7 AFC Bournemouth 6 3 2 1 11 7 4 11
8 Brighton and Hove Albion 5 3 1 1 8 6 2 10
9 Manchester United 5 3 1 1 8 8 0 10

Three wins for them at home, two draws and a defeat, to compare with Arsenal’s away form of three wins, one draw and one defeat.

Those figures suggest a draw, and this is further confirmed by goal difference – Arsenal’s away GD is five Bournemouth’s is four.

But this feeling of a draw inevitability is slightly undermined by the fact that Arsenal’s last three away games (excluding the two Checkatrade games played recently) give us

Date Game Res Scored Competition
07 Oct Fulham v Arsenal W 1-5 Premier League
25 Oct Sporting Clube Portugal v Arsenal W 0-1 Europa League
28 Oct Crystal Palace v Arsenal D 2-2 Premier League

As for Bournemouth’s last three home games we see one win, one draw and one defeat

Date Game Res Score Competition
20 Oct Bournemouth v Southampton D 0-0 Premier League
30 Oct Bournemouth v Norwich City W 2-1 League Cup
03 Nov Bournemouth v Manchester Utd L 1-2 Premier League

The south coast derby against Southampton was a bit of an anomoly and certainly for the locals as much a grudge match as playing Tottenham is at Arsenal Stadium.  But Manchester Utd did show that Bournemouth can be beaten at what used to be Dean Court but is called something else now.

Certainly 1-1 or for Arsenal to win, 1-2 as Man U achieved, is possibly the most we can hope for.  Bournemouth’s defeat to Man U however was their one and only home defeat this season.

Last season however Bournemouth won seven, drew five and lost seven at home, with a goal difference of minus four, showing that what has been happening this season has been a major improvement for them.  In which case it may not last.

More on this game anon.

Matchweek 13 – All of the games and Officials plus home and away fouls

2 comments to Bournemouth v Arsenal, predictions based on the home and away form.

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    If all is well in the Arsenal 1st team camp in terms of full match fitness and inform condition, and couple with if Emery will start the correct Arsenal starting XI most suitable to start the match against Bournemouth out the correct and suitable 18 Gunners he should go with to the Vitality Stadium to play the match, then Arsenal will not only extend their current unbeaten run in all competitions from 16 to 17 after the match has been played. But will at the same time beat Bournemouth in the match and return to the winning ways.

    If the first team squads cost of Arsenal and Bournemouth and the wages being paid weekly by both clubs to their players is to decide the outcome of this PL match on Sunday between the duo clubs, then it is obvious Arsenal should win the match by beating Bournemouth hands down in the game. Therefore, Arsenal should make their superior first team squad cost and the higher wages they are paying the Gunners on weekly basis count in the match over the inferior to that of Arsenal the Bournemouth first team squad cost and the lower wages than Arsenal pay the Gunners they are paying the Cherries weekly.

    The Arsenal 4-2-3-1 starting XI and the 7 on the bench Gunners i want to see Emery use against Bournemouth are below.

    Starts:
    Leno;
    Bellerin Sokratis Mustafi Kolasinac;
    Torreira Xhaka;
    Mkhitaryan Ozil Aubameyang:
    Lacazette.

    Bench:
    Cech Holding AMN Guendouzi Smith-Rowe Iwobi Nkethia.

  • colario

    Read this today:

    The Charity Commission is wondering why the latest PFA charity accounts show staff costs of nearly £3.8m despite the fact it also claims it “does not have any employees and therefore no salaries or wages have been paid during the year”

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