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Leicester v Arsenal: why high noon is great, plus form, predictions and teams

By Bulldog Drummond

The simplest prediction to make is that Arsenal are poor away from home, so Leicester will win.    But things are never that simple.  Here is Arsenal’s position just looking at away games

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Liverpool 18 12 5 1 31 10 21 41
2 Manchester City 17 12 2 3 33 10 23 38
3 Tottenham Hotspur 18 11 0 7 33 22 11 33
4 Manchester United 18 9 2 7 31 28 3 29
5 Chelsea 17 9 1 7 23 26 -3 28
6 Crystal Palace 18 8 2 8 29 28 1 26
7 Leicester City 18 7 4 7 27 27 0 25
8 Watford 18 6 5 7 26 28 -2 23
9 Arsenal 17 6 4 7 28 31 -3 22

Leicester’s home form is actually not that much more exciting.  Remember, we have 22 points away from home…

Pos Team P W D L F A GD Pts
1 Manchester City 18 17 0 1 56 12 44 51
2 Liverpool 17 15 2 0 48 10 38 47
3 Arsenal 18 14 2 2 41 15 26 44
4 Chelsea 18 11 6 1 36 12 24 39
5 Tottenham Hotspur 17 12 1 4 32 13 19 37
6 Manchester United 17 10 5 2 32 22 10 35
7 Everton 18 9 4 5 28 21 7 31
8 Wolverhampton Wanderers 18 9 4 5 27 21 6 31
9 West Ham United 18 8 4 6 29 27 2 28
10 Watford 17 8 3 6 24 22 2 27
11 AFC Bournemouth 18 7 5 6 29 25 4 26
12 Newcastle United 18 8 1 9 22 22 0 25
13 Leicester City 17 7 2 8 21 20 1 23

Leicester’s home form could be our salvation here – they have only one more point at home than Arsenal does away, and the goal difference (+1) is not too far away from Arsenal’s (-3).  We have actually scored 10 more away goals than Leicester has home goals this season.  They have lost more games at home than we have lost away from home.

These sort of figures point to a draw as a possible outcome, although Arsenal’s ability to score might just see us edge it.

But if we look at Arsenal’s recent league form overall it does not look that brilliant:

Date Game Res Score
01 Apr 2019 Arsenal v Newcastle United W 2-0
07 Apr 2019 Everton v Arsenal L 1-0
15 Apr 2019 Watford v Arsenal W 0-1
21 Apr 2019 Arsenal v Crystal Palace L 2-3
24 Apr 2019 Wolverhampton Wanderers v Arsenal L 3-1

As for Leicester…

Date Game Res Score
16 Mar 2019 Burnley v Leicester City W 1-2
30 Mar 2019 Leicester City v AFC Bournemouth W 2-0
06 Apr 2019 Huddersfield Town v Leicester City W 1-4
12 Apr 2019 Leicester City v Newcastle United L 0-1
20 Apr 2019 West Ham United v Leicester City D 2-2

In the last five we have two wins and three defeats.  Leicester have three wins, one defeat and one draw.  So a better recent record for them.

But we might find a ray of hope in the fact that the list of games Leicester have played includes Burnley (currently 15th), Bournemouth (14th), Huddersfield (20th), West Ham (11th) and Newcastle (13th).  Not a top ten club among them.  Three of Arsenal’s opponents are in the top 10.  OK I am straw clutching, but it is better medically to do that rather than go down the pub.

Leicester have also scored 21 goals fewer than Arsenal this season and conceded one goal more which appears to give us something of an edge.

If we look at Premier League games between the two sides across the years we can see that we have had the upper hand…

Date Game Res Score
11 Feb 1995 Arsenal v Leicester City D 1-1
24 Aug 1996 Leicester City v Arsenal W 0-2
12 Apr 1997 Arsenal v Leicester City W 2-0
27 Aug 1997 Leicester City v Arsenal D 3-3
26 Dec 1997 Arsenal v Leicester City W 2-1
12 Sep 1998 Leicester City v Arsenal D 1-1
20 Feb 1999 Arsenal v Leicester City W 5-0
07 Aug 1999 Arsenal v Leicester City W 2-1
04 Dec 1999 Leicester City v Arsenal W 0-3
26 Dec 2000 Arsenal v Leicester City W 6-1
20 Jan 2001 Leicester City v Arsenal D 0-0
25 Aug 2001 Arsenal v Leicester City W 4-0
23 Jan 2002 Leicester City v Arsenal W 1-3
06 Dec 2003 Leicester City v Arsenal D 1-1
15 May 2004 Arsenal v Leicester City W 2-1
31 Aug 2014 Leicester City v Arsenal D 1-1
10 Feb 2015 Arsenal v Leicester City W 2-1
26 Sep 2015 Leicester City v Arsenal W 2-5
14 Feb 2016 Arsenal v Leicester City W 2-1
20 Aug 2016 Leicester City v Arsenal D 0-0
26 Apr 2017 Arsenal v Leicester City W 1-0
11 Aug 2017 Arsenal v Leicester City W 4-3
09 May 2018 Leicester City v Arsenal L 3-1
22 Oct 2018 Arsenal v Leicester City W 3-1

One defeat in 24 (just on a year ago) and just six draws.  The rest are Arsenal wins.  Indeed those of us who were at the 26 September 2015 game will I am sure still remember it. It really was a rather jolly occasion.  For this one the BBC football website is predicting 1-1.

And the BBC have this couple of goodies:

  • Arsenal have never lost a Premier League game that has kicked off at midday, winning 15 such matches and drawing four.
  • The Gunners are also at risk of conceding at least three goals in three consecutive top-flight matches for the first time since 1967.

 

As for the teams, Soccer Souls gives us

Leno

Sokratis, Koscielny, Monreal

Maitland-Niles, Xhaka, Torreira, Kolasinac

Ozil

Lacazette Aubameygang

The Evening Standard is similar but not exactly the same

Leno,

Koscielny, Sokratis, Monreal,

Maitland-Niles, Xhaka, Torreira, Kolasinac,

Iwobi, Lacazette, Aubameyang

 

7 comments to Leicester v Arsenal: why high noon is great, plus form, predictions and teams

  • Umoh Ekwo

    Arsenal is poor away from home not because of any reason but poor selection by the coach during away matches.

  • timo

    Hope for the best. I think we are limited in attacking options since Welb’s injury. I could be wrong but I feel our away form suffered more when he got injured. Besides we got another chance. Emery should not let this go. A win takes us closer to Spurs. Hope for a draw at Utd and Chelsea. A Chelsea win is the worst case. A utd win is bad too.

  • Andrew Crawshaw

    Good luck as well to our Women who take on Brighton in their penultimate game of the season. A win will see them crowned WSL Champions. They kick off 15 minutes later than the men and the game is live on BT Sport for those of you in the UK. The match is at the main Brighton Amex stadium and tickets are available on the gate at a ridiculously cheap price of £3 with concessions even cheaper.

    If you can get there please go along and help make the match have the biggest crowd in WSL history.

  • jjgsol

    Yet another of those horrible statistics that is likely to be broken, making it 3 games in a row that a “record” has fallen.

  • WalterBroeckx

    live match report is on line by the way. Updates at least every 15 minutes.

  • Vince

    15 minutes in, 2 bordeline red cards challenges from Leicester on Torreira and Xhaka, one yellow given.
    On the other side, Maitland Niles got a yellow for a shoulder against shoulder challenge.

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Going in into the 2nd half of the match without AMN who has been sent off forcing Arsenal to play a Gunner down in the match against Leicester full eleven when the 2nd half resumes. But can Arsenal possibly pull the chestnuts out of the fire in the game to score goals against Leicester to beat them and come away from the King Power Stadium with all the 3 points at stake in the match? It’s a possibility I expect Arsenal to make possible in this match irrespective of the match referee harshness to them.

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