By Bulldog Drummond
The simplest prediction to make is that Arsenal are poor away from home, so Leicester will win. But things are never that simple. Here is Arsenal’s position just looking at away games
Leicester’s home form is actually not that much more exciting. Remember, we have 22 points away from home…
|9||West Ham United||18||8||4||6||29||27||2||28|
Leicester’s home form could be our salvation here – they have only one more point at home than Arsenal does away, and the goal difference (+1) is not too far away from Arsenal’s (-3). We have actually scored 10 more away goals than Leicester has home goals this season. They have lost more games at home than we have lost away from home.
These sort of figures point to a draw as a possible outcome, although Arsenal’s ability to score might just see us edge it.
But if we look at Arsenal’s recent league form overall it does not look that brilliant:
|01 Apr 2019||Arsenal v Newcastle United||W||2-0|
|07 Apr 2019||Everton v Arsenal||L||1-0|
|15 Apr 2019||Watford v Arsenal||W||0-1|
|21 Apr 2019||Arsenal v Crystal Palace||L||2-3|
|24 Apr 2019||Wolverhampton Wanderers v Arsenal||L||3-1|
As for Leicester…
|16 Mar 2019||Burnley v Leicester City||W||1-2|
|30 Mar 2019||Leicester City v AFC Bournemouth||W||2-0|
|06 Apr 2019||Huddersfield Town v Leicester City||W||1-4|
|12 Apr 2019||Leicester City v Newcastle United||L||0-1|
|20 Apr 2019||West Ham United v Leicester City||D||2-2|
In the last five we have two wins and three defeats. Leicester have three wins, one defeat and one draw. So a better recent record for them.
But we might find a ray of hope in the fact that the list of games Leicester have played includes Burnley (currently 15th), Bournemouth (14th), Huddersfield (20th), West Ham (11th) and Newcastle (13th). Not a top ten club among them. Three of Arsenal’s opponents are in the top 10. OK I am straw clutching, but it is better medically to do that rather than go down the pub.
Leicester have also scored 21 goals fewer than Arsenal this season and conceded one goal more which appears to give us something of an edge.
If we look at Premier League games between the two sides across the years we can see that we have had the upper hand…
|11 Feb 1995||Arsenal v Leicester City||D||1-1|
|24 Aug 1996||Leicester City v Arsenal||W||0-2|
|12 Apr 1997||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||2-0|
|27 Aug 1997||Leicester City v Arsenal||D||3-3|
|26 Dec 1997||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||2-1|
|12 Sep 1998||Leicester City v Arsenal||D||1-1|
|20 Feb 1999||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||5-0|
|07 Aug 1999||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||2-1|
|04 Dec 1999||Leicester City v Arsenal||W||0-3|
|26 Dec 2000||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||6-1|
|20 Jan 2001||Leicester City v Arsenal||D||0-0|
|25 Aug 2001||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||4-0|
|23 Jan 2002||Leicester City v Arsenal||W||1-3|
|06 Dec 2003||Leicester City v Arsenal||D||1-1|
|15 May 2004||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||2-1|
|31 Aug 2014||Leicester City v Arsenal||D||1-1|
|10 Feb 2015||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||2-1|
|26 Sep 2015||Leicester City v Arsenal||W||2-5|
|14 Feb 2016||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||2-1|
|20 Aug 2016||Leicester City v Arsenal||D||0-0|
|26 Apr 2017||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||1-0|
|11 Aug 2017||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||4-3|
|09 May 2018||Leicester City v Arsenal||L||3-1|
|22 Oct 2018||Arsenal v Leicester City||W||3-1|
One defeat in 24 (just on a year ago) and just six draws. The rest are Arsenal wins. Indeed those of us who were at the 26 September 2015 game will I am sure still remember it. It really was a rather jolly occasion. For this one the BBC football website is predicting 1-1.
And the BBC have this couple of goodies:
- Arsenal have never lost a Premier League game that has kicked off at midday, winning 15 such matches and drawing four.
- The Gunners are also at risk of conceding at least three goals in three consecutive top-flight matches for the first time since 1967.
As for the teams, Soccer Souls gives us
Sokratis, Koscielny, Monreal
Maitland-Niles, Xhaka, Torreira, Kolasinac
The Evening Standard is similar but not exactly the same
Koscielny, Sokratis, Monreal,
Maitland-Niles, Xhaka, Torreira, Kolasinac,
Iwobi, Lacazette, Aubameyang