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Is football fixed? Part 1: The logical reason why we might well think so.

10 comments to Is football fixed? Part 1: The logical reason why we might well think so.

  • Ryan F

    I’m curious: Arsenal have been consistently over performing their xG across the whole of the most recent season. The expected goals metric shows that we should have done a lot worse than we did.

    Are you therefore implying that games involving Arsenal this season have been ‘fixed’ in their favour?

    Cheers.

  • Mikey

    You’re implying it but if what you’re asking is, “is Tony infering it”, then no. A few odd results doesn’t mean that at all. A serious of bizarre results does not mean things were fixed either but it does increase the probability.

  • Mikey

    In terms of football I always quote one particular season as an example which exceeds randomness and starts to look potentialy something more sinister.

    I do not remember the season (and can’t be bothered to look now) but you can find it if you search hard enough. It involved one Mike Riley (he who refereed so appallingly in what should have been our 50th game unbeaten).

    In the season, he refereed 49 games. 41 did not involve Man Utd and in those 41 games he awarded one penalty. Yet in the eight games involving Man Utd he awarded nine penalties. That’s quite extreme in itself. However, the fact that all nine penalties were awarded to Man Utd would suggest to me that chance/luck may not have been the driving force behind the decision making process. Of course it may have been and without evidence we shall never know.

    Now I’m no mathematician (perhaps Gord could help) but roughly speaking, there was a one in 90 chance of your team getting a penalty if your weren’t Man U (49 games x two teams = 98 less the eight times one of the teams was Man U). However if you were Man U then it was actually odds on you would get a penalty every time he refereed you and the opposition would get none at all.

    So 19 teams in the Premiership had such a slim chance of getting a penalty when Riley refereed them that season (and zero if they played Man U) it therefore does push the boundaries of probabilty that you would have a better than even chance if you were one specific team (and none given against you)……..particularly when one considers other performances by the same referee over his career involving the same team.

  • Gord

    If the true average rate of getting a penalty is 1/90, the chance of getting 8 penalties form a Poisson distribution is:

    (1/90)^8 * exp(-1/90) / 8!

    In the calculator program I normally use, the first term is a hole bunch zeros and then 23230. The exponential term is very close to 1. The factorial term is 40320, and this is about double 23230. So, something like (4 or) 5 times 10^(-21).

    This is just using your numbers, I haven’t the time to go through it carefully.

  • Mikey

    Thanks Gord…………….although I’m not sure what it means 🙂

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Speaking personally, I’ve not noticed or seen when the Pgmol match officiating officials have match fixed any match in the PL to the favour of Arsenal. But instead of Arsenal been favoured as regards to match fixing in the PL by the Pgmol, the contrary is the case for the club. For, as widely seen and noticed by the inderpendent minds, the nuetrals and the jurists in professional footbal match assessment who are experts judges judging fairly. It is Arsenal FC that has been adjudged by them to be the victim of match fixing suspected to be seemingly orchestrated in the PL by the Pgmol with impunity.

    If match fixing has happened in the PL as been believed in many football quarters for, it has happened in Italy and Spain. Arsenal FC has been at the receiving ends in the front firing line of Mike Riley’s manage Pgmol match fixing ordering in the PLwhich has had Arsene Wenger’s managed Arsenal intentionally deprived to win the PL title several times in his final a decade and half season before he left he left the club. And as a result of this match fixing in the PL that was been perpetrated against Arsenal to punish them allegedly by the Pgmol match officiating officials through their clandestine match officiating in the PL that was primarily put in place at the Pgmol headquarters. Consequently, irreparable damage in terms of winning the PL title has been done to Arsenal campaigns in the PL over the years depriving them to win the title again for 15 seasons running. But what us Gooners are looking at now and watching out for to see is, will the Pgmol continue to hurt Arsenal that is now under Unai Emery to suffered the same punishments they had suffered Wenger’s Arsenal with before? Or they’ll at least start relaxing the punishments that they’ve imposed on Arsenal through match fixing for their hating Wenger. Thereby denying him many season opportunities to lift the title again. And would the Pgmol allow the club to start profiting immensely lawfully in the PL uninhibited as from next season’s campaign? Well, we’ll see.

    On Aubameyang exploits in the PL for Arsenal since he has joined them a season and half ago, the Arsenal ace striker is both a top scorer of goals for the club and equally a top miser of important goals for the club in the PL and in the Europa League Cup competition where he has missed scoring important goals for the club. e.g. against Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley in the PL last season, he failed to covert a penalty for Arsenal at the death in the game that would have seen Arsenal collect all the 3 points at stake in the match instead of the 1 point that they got in the match. And against Chelsea in the Europa League Cup final in Baku, Azerbaijan. The 29 or 30 year old Arsenal striker Aubameyang missed what I’ll call a sitter for Arsenal in the 2nd half of the match when he raced to a pass at right wing and worked his way through into the box but blaze the ball over the bar with the Chelsea goalkeeper begging not to be beaten. If he had scored that missed sitter, that would have made it 4-2 to Chelsea at that stage in the match. And who knows, Arsenal could brazen up to equalise the remaining 2 goals deficit and subsequently go ahead to win the match. It’s a possibility that could happen but deflated with the sitter miss.

    Anyway, if it’s true that the 2 Chinese club sides of Guangzhou Evergranad and Shangai SIGP are interested in signing Aubameyang from Arsenal this summer at a reported whooping transfer fee of £60m or more as rumoured after offering him 300k/w wages. My advice to Arsenal is they should not hold on to him to miss selling him for £60m or more to any of the 2 Chinese clubs that is attempting to sign him this summer window just like in the manner they missed selling Alexis Sanchez to Man City for £60m in a January transfer windows only to later swapped him for the flop at Arsenal Mkhitaryan. If Arsenal collect the £60m for selling Aubameyang this summer, they can reinvest the money in part or in full to sign a top quality grade young regular League goals scorer striker whose age is in the range of 24-25 years old.

    A clear out at the Emirates Stadium could see Monreal, Mkhitaryan and Ozil having the sales axe fall on them this summer. Arsenal should sell these trio Gunners this summer window for their about passing their sales by date and for the act of insurbodition by Ozil reportedly shown to Emery and for his obvious cumulative laziness showing in matches for Arsenal. As for Koscielny, Xhaka and Kolasinac, let me just say I don’t know.

  • Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

    Speaking personally, I’ve not noticed or seen when the Pgmol match officiating officials have match fixed any match in the PL to the favour of Arsenal. But instead of Arsenal been favoured as regards to match fixing in the PL by the Pgmol, the contrary is the case for the club. For, as widely seen and noticed by the inderpendent minds, the nuetrals and the jurists in professional footbal match assessment who are experts judges judging fairly. It is Arsenal FC that has been adjudged by them to be the victim of match fixing suspected to be orchestrating in the PL for long by the Pgmol with impunity.

    If match fixing has happened in the PL as been believed in many football quarters it won’t surprisingly if it is happening there also. After all, it has been seen to have happened in Italian Serie A football before and now in Spanish Segunda football as well. But it has been revealed if it has happened in the Bundesliga and in the French Ligue 1.

    Arsenal FC has been at the receiving ends in the front firing line of Mike Riley’s manage Pgmol match fixing ordering in the PLwhich has had Arsene Wenger’s managed Arsenal intentionally deprived from winning the PL title several times over after they won it last that took it’s toll up to his final decade and half season at the club before he left it. And as a result of this match fixing in the PL that was been purposely perpetrated against Arsenal to punish them by the Pgmol match officiating officials through their clandestine match officiating in the PL that was primarily put in place at the Pgmol headquarters, consequently, irreparable damage in backlog in terms of winning the PL title has been done to Arsenal campaigns in the PL over the past 15 seasons running depriving them from winning the title again. But what us Gooners are looking at now and watching out for to see is, will the Pgmol continue to hurt Arsenal that is now under Unai Emery to suffer the club with the same punishments they had suffered Wenger’s Arsenal with before? Or will they at least start relaxing the punishments that they’ve imposed on Arsenal through match fixing for their hating Wenger. Thereby denying Emery coached Arsenal the lawful opportunities to be lifting the title whenever they have played very well in PL campaigns deserving to win. And would the Pgmol allow the club to start profiting immensely in the PL uninhibited deliberately stopping the club from winning the title as from next season’s campaign? Well, we’ll see.

    On Aubameyang exploits in the PL for Arsenal since he has joined them a season and half ago, the Arsenal ace striker is both a top scorer of goals for the club and equally a top miser of important goals for the club in the PL and in the Europa League Cup final when he missed scoring some important goals for the club. e.g. against Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley in the PL last season, he failed to covert a penalty for Arsenal at the death in the game that would have seen the club collected all the 3 points at stake in the match as against the 1 point that it got in the match. And against Chelsea in the Europa League Cup final in Baku, Azerbaijan. The 29 or 30 year old Arsenal striker Aubameyang missed what I’ll call a sitter for Arsenal in the 2nd half of the match when he raced on to a pass at right wing and worked his way through into the box but blazed the ball over the bar with the Chelsea goalkeeper begging not to be beaten. If he had scored that missed sitter, he would have made it 4-2 to Chelsea at that stage in the match. And who knows, Arsenal could brazen up to equalise the remaining 2 goals deficit and subsequently go ahead to win the match. It’s a possibility that could happen but deflated with the sitter miss.

    Anyway, if it’s true that the 2 Chinese club sides of Guangzhou Evergranad and Shangai SIGP are interested in signing Aubameyang from Arsenal this summer at a reported whooping transfer fee of £60m or more as rumoured after offering him 300k/w wages. My advice to Arsenal is they should not hold on to him to miss selling him for £60m or more to any of the 2 Chinese clubs that is attempting to sign him this summer just like in the manner they missed selling Alexis Sanchez to Man City for £60m in a January transfer window only to later swapped him for the flop at Arsenal Mkhitaryan. If Arsenal collect the £60m for selling Aubameyang this summer, they can reinvest the money in part or in full to sign a top quality grade young regular League goals scoring striker whose age is in the range of 24-25 years old.

    A clear out at the Emirates Stadium could see Monreal, Mkhitaryan and Ozil have the sales axe fall on them this summer. Arsenal should sell these trio Gunners this summer window for their about to pass their sales by date and for the act of insurbodition by Ozil he reportedly shown to Emery and for his obvious cumulative laziness showing in matches for Arsenal. As for Koscielny, Xhaka and Kolasinac, let me just say I don’t know.

  • Casmir

    Really? There are only 2 answers to that notion? I’m sorry, I thought you were being serious about the article

  • Brickfields Gunners

    Yes . Most definitely the EPL is fixed ., well and truly .
    I have no doubt in my mind whatsoever .
    Who are involved ?
    I don’t know . But I sure as hell don’t trust the English referees .
    Are Arsenal being screwed over ?
    You can bet your sweet arse !

  • Well with VAR and closer scrutiny i believe an answer is coming soon

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