Is football fixed? Part 1: The logical reason why we might well think so.

By Tony Attwood

There are two answers to the notion that football is fixed, which journalists and bloggers like to trot out over and over again.

The first is that the people who suggest football is fixed are simply loopy – that they go around wearing tin hats, believe that the BBC is the universal heart of fake news, that there is no such thing as global warming and that the MMR vaccination programme is devised by North Korea to make so many people ill that it can then take over the world. Such people believe science is fake and evidence is not needed to support any claim, and as such, to my mind they are idiots in search of a conspiracy who should be laughed at and pushed out of the way (gently).

No evidence is put forward to support such points of view, they are just stated, usually with a load of insults, often with a lot of swearing, rarely with much accurate use of grammar, logic, reason, or come to that anything else. And believe me I know, because Untold gets a huge amount of this type of response, most of which of course I choose not to publish because it comes without evidence.

There is a second response to the notion that football is fixed however, and it is one that needs to be taken seriously. It is that football is much more random than we might think, and that chance and luck plays a huge amount in deciding who wins the league and who comes at the foot of the table.

In short, when we think something fishy is going on, it is just randomness and luck doing its thing.

To support this view the notion is put forward that because “expected goals” (ie the goals that one would expect to flow from the number of chances created) are not the same as actual goals, luck and chance must be playing a big part in football.

And clearly there is something in this. We see a situation in which Aubameyang gets the ball in a position in which he would score nine times out of ten, and he hits it way wide. It’s bad luck, he’s off balance, or something happens. So it goes; no conspiracy, he just misses.

But then, as many commentators do, to suggest that expected goals and thus luck and chance, explain everything is equally nonsensical, because there is virtually no attempt to look for other possible explanations – which any serious explanation ought to do. Besides which luck and chance are pretty difficult things to measure.

Let me try to give a comparison from elsewhere. We can see the sun and the moon travel across the sky. So by simple logic we conclude that each of these bodies goes round the earth. We watch an eclipse of the sun, and conclude the moon is closer to the earth than the sun. But then we see an eclipse of the moon, and can just about get away with our thesis, as long as we are not making any serious measurements.

However when we come to look at Mars, Jupiter and Saturn travelling across the night sky it becomes clear there is no sense in this “earth at the centre” argument. They travel in strange orbits first one way then the next. In terms of them going round the earth, it is nonsense. Another explanation is needed.

Back to football – we can say that yes, players can make mistakes and expected goals don’t turn into goals, but that is a bit like saying, it looks like the sun and moon go round the earth, so let’s leave it at that. It is only the start of the investigation.

In fact, if we want to be serious about any notion, we need to consider not just talent and luck, but also anything that looks a bit odd. The football equivalent to the way the outer planets move across the sky which only make sense if you accept that all the planets go around the sun.

So my point is simple: to explain what is happening we need to look at all the possible explanations for what is going on, and not just the bits that fit our point of view, and then think what to do about these possibilities.

OK some possibilities can be dismissed at once – they are so crazy that we can see they are nonsense. And then let’s see what is left. And to do this we need a really weird set of circumstances.

In the past football historians might take Nurnberg in Germany, or Manchester City in 1937/38 – in both cases clubs who won the league one season, and then were relegated in the second season. In fact, if you are interested you can read the story of just how Manchester City came to be relegated on the Arsenal History Society article for April and May 1938. For them to be relegated seven matches had to have set results – and all seven occurred. The article linked to there does primarily deal with Arsenal in those months, but there is a fair bit of Manchester City simply because the situation was so weird. The champions were indeed relegated.

But now we have another example of weirdness we can consider: Leicester in 2015/16. They got an amazing series of results which took them to the top of the league for the one, and so far only, time. In the previous season they came 14th, in the subsequent season they came 12th. Indeed their points total for the seasons before and after show just how weird this was: 41 points the season before, 44 points the season after winning the league. Nothing here was impossible, it was just exceedingly unlikely.

But the exceedingly unlikely can happen. Leicester had a fair slice of luck, and the rest of the top clubs were more erratic than usual, and Leicester won the league. No one has put forward a reasoned argument to suggest there was anything amiss.

And indeed in one regard there was nothing unusual here because every season we get lots of games that defy expectations but that again does not mean anything is fixed.

However as a recent article in the Guardian pointed out, if one takes expected goals as the measure of expected reality, in one in six games expected goals is not at all a predictor of what actually happens. And so the “experts” are then left explaining the result as being simply down to pure luck.

It is a bit like saying that gravity is a universal constant, only to find that once a week one wakes up with no gravity in place, and the explanation being, well, it happens. Once a week gravity is on the blink, just like some days the sun doesn’t shine.

The article continues shortly…

Ryan F

05/06/2019 at 9:08 am

I’m curious: Arsenal have been consistently over performing their xG across the whole of the most recent season. The expected goals metric shows that we should have done a lot worse than we did.

Are you therefore implying that games involving Arsenal this season have been ‘fixed’ in their favour?

Cheers.

Mikey

05/06/2019 at 1:37 pm

You’re implying it but if what you’re asking is, “is Tony infering it”, then no. A few odd results doesn’t mean that at all. A serious of bizarre results does not mean things were fixed either but it does increase the probability.

05/06/2019 at 2:01 pm

In terms of football I always quote one particular season as an example which exceeds randomness and starts to look potentialy something more sinister.

I do not remember the season (and can’t be bothered to look now) but you can find it if you search hard enough. It involved one Mike Riley (he who refereed so appallingly in what should have been our 50th game unbeaten).

In the season, he refereed 49 games. 41 did not involve Man Utd and in those 41 games he awarded one penalty. Yet in the eight games involving Man Utd he awarded nine penalties. That’s quite extreme in itself. However, the fact that all nine penalties were awarded to Man Utd would suggest to me that chance/luck may not have been the driving force behind the decision making process. Of course it may have been and without evidence we shall never know.

Now I’m no mathematician (perhaps Gord could help) but roughly speaking, there was a one in 90 chance of your team getting a penalty if your weren’t Man U (49 games x two teams = 98 less the eight times one of the teams was Man U). However if you were Man U then it was actually odds on you would get a penalty every time he refereed you and the opposition would get none at all.

So 19 teams in the Premiership had such a slim chance of getting a penalty when Riley refereed them that season (and zero if they played Man U) it therefore does push the boundaries of probabilty that you would have a better than even chance if you were one specific team (and none given against you)……..particularly when one considers other performances by the same referee over his career involving the same team.

Gord

05/06/2019 at 4:28 pm

If the true average rate of getting a penalty is 1/90, the chance of getting 8 penalties form a Poisson distribution is:

(1/90)^8 * exp(-1/90) / 8!

In the calculator program I normally use, the first term is a hole bunch zeros and then 23230. The exponential term is very close to 1. The factorial term is 40320, and this is about double 23230. So, something like (4 or) 5 times 10^(-21).

This is just using your numbers, I haven’t the time to go through it carefully.

05/06/2019 at 4:57 pm

Thanks Gord…………….although I’m not sure what it means 🙂

Samuel Akinsola Adebosin

05/06/2019 at 6:53 pm

Speaking personally, I’ve not noticed or seen when the Pgmol match officiating officials have match fixed any match in the PL to the favour of Arsenal. But instead of Arsenal been favoured as regards to match fixing in the PL by the Pgmol, the contrary is the case for the club. For, as widely seen and noticed by the inderpendent minds, the nuetrals and the jurists in professional footbal match assessment who are experts judges judging fairly. It is Arsenal FC that has been adjudged by them to be the victim of match fixing suspected to be seemingly orchestrated in the PL by the Pgmol with impunity.

If match fixing has happened in the PL as been believed in many football quarters for, it has happened in Italy and Spain. Arsenal FC has been at the receiving ends in the front firing line of Mike Riley’s manage Pgmol match fixing ordering in the PLwhich has had Arsene Wenger’s managed Arsenal intentionally deprived to win the PL title several times in his final a decade and half season before he left he left the club. And as a result of this match fixing in the PL that was been perpetrated against Arsenal to punish them allegedly by the Pgmol match officiating officials through their clandestine match officiating in the PL that was primarily put in place at the Pgmol headquarters. Consequently, irreparable damage in terms of winning the PL title has been done to Arsenal campaigns in the PL over the years depriving them to win the title again for 15 seasons running. But what us Gooners are looking at now and watching out for to see is, will the Pgmol continue to hurt Arsenal that is now under Unai Emery to suffered the same punishments they had suffered Wenger’s Arsenal with before? Or they’ll at least start relaxing the punishments that they’ve imposed on Arsenal through match fixing for their hating Wenger. Thereby denying him many season opportunities to lift the title again. And would the Pgmol allow the club to start profiting immensely lawfully in the PL uninhibited as from next season’s campaign? Well, we’ll see.

On Aubameyang exploits in the PL for Arsenal since he has joined them a season and half ago, the Arsenal ace striker is both a top scorer of goals for the club and equally a top miser of important goals for the club in the PL and in the Europa League Cup competition where he has missed scoring important goals for the club. e.g. against Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley in the PL last season, he failed to covert a penalty for Arsenal at the death in the game that would have seen Arsenal collect all the 3 points at stake in the match instead of the 1 point that they got in the match. And against Chelsea in the Europa League Cup final in Baku, Azerbaijan. The 29 or 30 year old Arsenal striker Aubameyang missed what I’ll call a sitter for Arsenal in the 2nd half of the match when he raced to a pass at right wing and worked his way through into the box but blaze the ball over the bar with the Chelsea goalkeeper begging not to be beaten. If he had scored that missed sitter, that would have made it 4-2 to Chelsea at that stage in the match. And who knows, Arsenal could brazen up to equalise the remaining 2 goals deficit and subsequently go ahead to win the match. It’s a possibility that could happen but deflated with the sitter miss.

Anyway, if it’s true that the 2 Chinese club sides of Guangzhou Evergranad and Shangai SIGP are interested in signing Aubameyang from Arsenal this summer at a reported whooping transfer fee of £60m or more as rumoured after offering him 300k/w wages. My advice to Arsenal is they should not hold on to him to miss selling him for £60m or more to any of the 2 Chinese clubs that is attempting to sign him this summer window just like in the manner they missed selling Alexis Sanchez to Man City for £60m in a January transfer windows only to later swapped him for the flop at Arsenal Mkhitaryan. If Arsenal collect the £60m for selling Aubameyang this summer, they can reinvest the money in part or in full to sign a top quality grade young regular League goals scorer striker whose age is in the range of 24-25 years old.

A clear out at the Emirates Stadium could see Monreal, Mkhitaryan and Ozil having the sales axe fall on them this summer. Arsenal should sell these trio Gunners this summer window for their about passing their sales by date and for the act of insurbodition by Ozil reportedly shown to Emery and for his obvious cumulative laziness showing in matches for Arsenal. As for Koscielny, Xhaka and Kolasinac, let me just say I don’t know.

05/06/2019 at 8:39 pm

Speaking personally, I’ve not noticed or seen when the Pgmol match officiating officials have match fixed any match in the PL to the favour of Arsenal. But instead of Arsenal been favoured as regards to match fixing in the PL by the Pgmol, the contrary is the case for the club. For, as widely seen and noticed by the inderpendent minds, the nuetrals and the jurists in professional footbal match assessment who are experts judges judging fairly. It is Arsenal FC that has been adjudged by them to be the victim of match fixing suspected to be orchestrating in the PL for long by the Pgmol with impunity.

If match fixing has happened in the PL as been believed in many football quarters it won’t surprisingly if it is happening there also. After all, it has been seen to have happened in Italian Serie A football before and now in Spanish Segunda football as well. But it has been revealed if it has happened in the Bundesliga and in the French Ligue 1.

Arsenal FC has been at the receiving ends in the front firing line of Mike Riley’s manage Pgmol match fixing ordering in the PLwhich has had Arsene Wenger’s managed Arsenal intentionally deprived from winning the PL title several times over after they won it last that took it’s toll up to his final decade and half season at the club before he left it. And as a result of this match fixing in the PL that was been purposely perpetrated against Arsenal to punish them by the Pgmol match officiating officials through their clandestine match officiating in the PL that was primarily put in place at the Pgmol headquarters, consequently, irreparable damage in backlog in terms of winning the PL title has been done to Arsenal campaigns in the PL over the past 15 seasons running depriving them from winning the title again. But what us Gooners are looking at now and watching out for to see is, will the Pgmol continue to hurt Arsenal that is now under Unai Emery to suffer the club with the same punishments they had suffered Wenger’s Arsenal with before? Or will they at least start relaxing the punishments that they’ve imposed on Arsenal through match fixing for their hating Wenger. Thereby denying Emery coached Arsenal the lawful opportunities to be lifting the title whenever they have played very well in PL campaigns deserving to win. And would the Pgmol allow the club to start profiting immensely in the PL uninhibited deliberately stopping the club from winning the title as from next season’s campaign? Well, we’ll see.

On Aubameyang exploits in the PL for Arsenal since he has joined them a season and half ago, the Arsenal ace striker is both a top scorer of goals for the club and equally a top miser of important goals for the club in the PL and in the Europa League Cup final when he missed scoring some important goals for the club. e.g. against Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley in the PL last season, he failed to covert a penalty for Arsenal at the death in the game that would have seen the club collected all the 3 points at stake in the match as against the 1 point that it got in the match. And against Chelsea in the Europa League Cup final in Baku, Azerbaijan. The 29 or 30 year old Arsenal striker Aubameyang missed what I’ll call a sitter for Arsenal in the 2nd half of the match when he raced on to a pass at right wing and worked his way through into the box but blazed the ball over the bar with the Chelsea goalkeeper begging not to be beaten. If he had scored that missed sitter, he would have made it 4-2 to Chelsea at that stage in the match. And who knows, Arsenal could brazen up to equalise the remaining 2 goals deficit and subsequently go ahead to win the match. It’s a possibility that could happen but deflated with the sitter miss.

Anyway, if it’s true that the 2 Chinese club sides of Guangzhou Evergranad and Shangai SIGP are interested in signing Aubameyang from Arsenal this summer at a reported whooping transfer fee of £60m or more as rumoured after offering him 300k/w wages. My advice to Arsenal is they should not hold on to him to miss selling him for £60m or more to any of the 2 Chinese clubs that is attempting to sign him this summer just like in the manner they missed selling Alexis Sanchez to Man City for £60m in a January transfer window only to later swapped him for the flop at Arsenal Mkhitaryan. If Arsenal collect the £60m for selling Aubameyang this summer, they can reinvest the money in part or in full to sign a top quality grade young regular League goals scoring striker whose age is in the range of 24-25 years old.

A clear out at the Emirates Stadium could see Monreal, Mkhitaryan and Ozil have the sales axe fall on them this summer. Arsenal should sell these trio Gunners this summer window for their about to pass their sales by date and for the act of insurbodition by Ozil he reportedly shown to Emery and for his obvious cumulative laziness showing in matches for Arsenal. As for Koscielny, Xhaka and Kolasinac, let me just say I don’t know.

Casmir

05/06/2019 at 8:47 pm

Really? There are only 2 answers to that notion? I’m sorry, I thought you were being serious about the article

Brickfields Gunners

06/06/2019 at 8:43 am

Yes . Most definitely the EPL is fixed ., well and truly .
I have no doubt in my mind whatsoever .
Who are involved ?
I don’t know . But I sure as hell don’t trust the English referees .
Are Arsenal being screwed over ?
You can bet your sweet arse !

Jomki

11/06/2019 at 9:43 am

Well with VAR and closer scrutiny i believe an answer is coming soon

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Is football fixed? Part 1: The logical reason why we might well think so.

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