By Iver Kalculator
I have been told that Arsenal are doing far worse this season than we did last season. I think this is quite untrue. In fact I believe we are doing better than we were a season ago. As I show in the tables below.
|Date||Game||This season result||This season score||Last season result||Last season score||Change|
|12 Sep||Fulham v Arsenal||W||0-3||Note 1||Note 1||Note 1|
|19 Sep||Arsenal v West Ham United||W||2-1||W||1-0||0|
|28 Sep||Liverpool v Arsenal||L||3-1||L||3-1||0|
|04 Oct||Arsenal v Sheffield United||W||2-1||D||1-1||+2 pts|
|17 Oct||Manchester City v Arsenal||L||1-0||L||3-0||0|
|25 Oct||Arsenal v Leicester City||L||0-1||D||1-1||-1 pt|
|01 Nov||Manchester United v Arsenal||W||0-1||D||1-1||+2 pts|
|08 Nov||Arsenal v Aston Villa||L||0-3||W||3-2||-3 pts|
|22 Nov||Leeds United v Arsenal||D||0-0||Note 2||Note 2||Note 2|
|29 Nov||Arsenal v Wolverhampton W||L||1-2||D||1-1||-1 pt|
|6 Dec||Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal||L||2-0||L||2-1||0|
|13 Dec||Arsenal v Burnley||L||0-1||W||2-1||-3 pts|
|16 Dec||Arsenal v Southampton||D||1-1||D||2-2||0|
|19 Dec||Everton v Arsenal||L||2-1||D||0-0||-1 pt|
|26 Dec||Arsenal v Chelsea||W||3-1||L||1-2||+3 pts|
Note 1 (Fulham) and Note 2 (Leeds United)
Now we have in this table Leeds and Fulham against whom we have picked up four points this year.
You will of course recall that they were promoted in 2019/20. Leeds won the league, and Fulham the play offs. So the equivalent for 2018/19 would be Norwich (league winners) and Aston Villa (play off winners).
Thus we transpose the Leeds result with the Norwich result. Leeds away this year was 0-0 (1 point) while Norwich away last season was a 2-2 draw, again one point. No change. Nice and easy. It is a situation which in technical statistical terms is called “nothing to worry about”.
Aston Villa came up via the play offs, so we compare them with Fulham. We beat Fulham away this season, but we lost to Villa away 1-0 last season. So we are three points better off this season than we were with them last season. In statistics this is called a “roll your sleeves up situation” meaning work must be done. Calculators at the ready!
Thus if we take that victory over Fulham, compared with a defeat against Villa last time around, and factor it into the data, instead of being two points worse off, we are now one point better off than we were in the same games last season and thus should be safe for the Europa league once again.
That’s comforting to know.
So how can it be that the table after 15 games now…
|10||West Ham United||14||6||3||5||21||19||2||21|
reads worse that after 15 games last season?
Basically we are two points and a goal difference of two, worse off, because we have played tougher matches in the first 15 this season than last season. We can also see that our goal scoring is worse (the lack of Auba and Martinelli have accounted for that) while our defence has actually improved, conceding four fewer goals. I don’t think any of the so-called commentators and so-called expert analysts with their so-called super computers have noticed this!
What is particularly interesting is that we are now ten points off the fourth “not a trophy” position which is exactly the same as last season at this point.
Last season we ended up eighth and we are likely to be in a similar position this season – unless we start scoring a few more goals. Which with both Auba and Martinelli on song, we certainly ought to be able to do.
I’m glad that’s sorted.
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