6 responses

  1. Matthew Campbell
    20 July 2021

    Hi all,
    Interesting update to the discussions on the media’s Arsenal narrative.
    I read recently that Arsenal are seeing by far the most betting activity on “teams to place in top 4”, which suggests that there are a lot of punters out there who are taking advantage of the negativity, but seeing a more positive direction of the club, no doubt based on the strong last two-thirds of the season. Odds a month ago were as high as 15/2 (!), but now down to 11/2.

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  2. Nitram
    20 July 2021

    This is what arsenal.com has to say about our new signing:

    By Aaron Catterson-Reid

    Arsenal have finalised the signing of Albert Sambi Lokonga from Anderlecht on a long-term deal.

    “His ability to read the game is a standout strength, often snuffing out danger and cutting out passes between the lines. Throughout the 2020/21 campaign, he averaged 1.8 interceptions per game, something that could be bettered by just five midfielders in the Pro League, out of players to play a minimum of 1,000 minutes in the division.”

    So this trait could would fit perfectly with Arteta’s new approach ?

    But he goes on to say:

    “Furthermore, Lokonga is also an accomplished tackler, registering 1.6 tackles per game in the league, more than any Arsenal midfielder managed last term, incredibly impressive considering he is still just 21 years old.”

    Well he’ll have to cut that nonsense out strait away because as we know, when it comes to Arsenal, what’s seen as a perfectly good tackle in Belgium is often as not a nailed on card in the Premier League !

    And here’s another trait that could prove troublesome:

    “His 183cm frame permits him to come out on top of most defensive duels, often making use of his notable upper body strength to shrug opposition players off the ball in the middle of the park, something that will serve him well in the fast-paced environment of the Premier League”.

    It might of been something that ‘served him well’ in Belgium, in the PL it’s much more likely to see him constantly pulled up for fouls.

    Lets hope our new man learns very quickly just how differently he will be referee in the PL.

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  3. Nitram
    20 July 2021

    Matthew Campbell

    “I read recently that Arsenal are seeing by far the most betting activity on “teams to place in top 4″”

    It doesn’t surprise me, after all as Tony has pointed out so many times, for the last 2/3rds of the season we were top 2. Transpose that form to an entire season and a top 4 finish is highly likely let alone 13/2. But as we all know things are never that simple, if they were we would all be millionaires and bookies would be out of business. Alas we are not, and the last time I looked bookies were still holidaying in the Caribbean.

    Never the less back on the 27th of June I took 66/1 ew (top 2) on us to win the premier League. We are still 66/1 with my bookie. According to ‘Oddschecker’ it does look as if we have shortened a tiny bit but not much.

    In all honestly do I think we can win the premier League or even finish top 2 ? No. But betting is all about value and 66/1 is way way too big a price.

    If I use Horse Racing as an analogy, when you bet on horses the 2 main things you look for are the historic class of the horse, and perhaps more importantly how it ran last time out, especially how it finished a race, for example was it ‘running on’.

    In both these parameters Arsenal score highly. Class wise, history shows Arsenal are top 4, despite running under par for a few seasons. But as they say, form is temporary, class is permanent. As for last time out, despite a terrible start, hitting the first 3 fences and toiling towards the back, Arsenal finished ‘like a train’. In racing circles they would of ‘gone in a lot of peoples note books’.

    Using that analogy with regards to Arsenal we should not be 66/1. That is ridiculous. Yes we are outsiders to win the PL, but more like a 25/1 chance than 66/1, but we look, in racing terms, ‘nailed on’ for a top 4 finish, more like 4/1 than 6/1 or 7/1.

    In my humble opinion both bets are value at the current odds.

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  4. Matthew Campbell
    20 July 2021

    Hi Nitram.

    I agree exactly.
    There’s plenty of value there, and I’ve got money on the exact same 66/1 E/W bet that you have, as well as the top 4 bet.
    Not banking on winning, but I’m happy that, if things go the way I think they will, I’ll have a (nearly) free season ticket for the 22/23 season!

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  5. Nitram
    20 July 2021

    Mathew

    Did you get 3 places for your ew? I only got 2 and that seems the norm and a p1$$ take. But I didn’t have to bet so more fool me, but still, 2 places in a 20 runner field is a bit stingy.

    Reply

  6. Matthew Campbell
    20 July 2021

    Yep – only 2 places. Seems standard in football league placings EWs. Don’t know why….

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