By Sir Hardly Anyone
Journalists’ failure rate reaches a staggering 96%.
Would any other industry accept such a level of failure?
We know that the overwhelming majority of transfers that journalists and bloggers predict never come to pass.
But sitting in the Toppled Bollard public house in Docklands, we began to wonder what actually happened to all those the players tipped to be coming to Arsenal last summer.
So we thought we would have a look to see who was on last summer’s rosta of players we were allegedly about to sign… and we found that out of 134 players tipped to be coming to Arsenal, ten were signed, of whom five were first team players and the rest were under 23s or younger.
55 of the senior players tipped to be coming our way, did actually transfer, and moved to a club other than Arsenal, but the majority (69) stayed at the club they were at in the first place.
So in essence five out of 134 players were correctly tipped as coming our way – a success rate of 3.7% – which was slightly higher than the season before.
What I find particularly interesting however is that over half of the players tipped to be coming to Arsenal didn’t actually move at all. So it is not that Arsenal were too slow or lazy and were seen off by more active or more aggressive clubs – there probably was no interest at all – it was all a fantasy.
Of course it is possible that in a few cases the club to whom the player was signed heard of Arsenal’s interest and upped the player’s salary, but from the few cases I know in some detail, I would say it is more likely that the players who didn’t move were never going to move.
In fact, I remain convinced that well over 90% of these tales are made up and everyone in the industry knows that. If not, what on earth are editors doing, putting up with journalists whose failure rate is over 96%?
And we might note that it is hardly surprising that 99% of the transfer stories are written up to suggest that it is another website or newspaper that has put up the story in the first place! No one wants to be associated with a failure rate of 96%!
The details are below in case you want to check any players…
No | Player | From | What happened | What the tipsters said. |
1 | Adil Aouchiche | PSG | Moved to St Etienne | ESPN. Saint-Etienne may be close to signing him. Arsenal offer turned down, Football London. HITC – he is ready to quit PSG |
2 | Kristoffer Ajer | Celtic | Moved to Brentford | Gunnersphere; Scottish Daily |
Signed | Tim Akinola | Huddersfield | Under 23 player | |
4 | Rafinha Alcantara | Celta on loan from Barcelona | Moved to PSG | One Arsenal, Just Football, Daily Canon. Brother of Thiago (see below). Express say deal being prepared. |
5 | Thiago Alcantara | Bayern Munich | Moved to Liverpool | Independent.ie, Chatsports, Newsbreak, Liverpool Echo, Football Transfer Tavern, Sportslens, RedandWhiteKop, Kicknews, KE opera News, Football News Views, Soccerladuma, Ilovemancity, Fussbol, Weinfilm, GLBNews, VBET. Metro – Arsenal have enquired |
6 | Thiago Almada | Vélez Sarsfield of the Argentine Primera División | Stayed at Vélez Sarsfield | Teamtalk, Mund Deportivo. AS. Man City interested. Manchester Eve News |
7 | Miguel Almiron | Newcastle | Stayed at Newcastle | Media Referee |
8 | Houssem Aouar | Lyon | Stayed at Lyon | The Sun tells us he is 25 and the price is £65m. 4th official agree. Gunnersphere also. Express says it is on, compares him to Nasri |
9 | Sardar Azmoun | Zenit St. Petersburg | Stayed at Zenit | Leicester want him. 442, HITC, TBR. Star, Area Napoli |
10 | Ousseynou Ba | Olympiacos centre-back | Stayed at Olympiacos | HITC, Sport Time |
11 | Leon Bailey | Bayer Leverkusen | Stayed at Bayer Leverkusen | Just Arsenal |
12 | Nicolo Barella | Inter Milan on loan from Cagliari | Stayed at Inter Milan | 23 year old. FC Inter News says Arteta is a great fan but the AFC bid was rejected. HITC and Whoscored report this is ongoing |
13 | Wissam Ben Yedder | Monaco; 29 years old | Stayed at Monaco | Sports Mole |
14 | Federico Bernadeschi | Juventus | Stayed at Juventus | To replace Lacazette; Just Arsenal |
15 | Said Benrahma | Brentford | Moved to WHU | Football London, FL World, Express. Foot Mercato he is going to cost €30-35m. Daily Canon reports everyone wants him |
16 | Jérôme Boateng | Bayern Munich | Stayed at Bayern but is now a free agent | Daily Mail. Read Arsenal says Bayern ready to sell |
17 | Giacomo Bonaventura | Milan | Moved to Fiorentina | Out of contract at end of season Sun says Atalanta, Fiorentina, Roma and Lazio want him |
18 | Ugurcan Cakir |
Trabzonspor goalkeeper
|
Stayed at Trabzonspor | HITC. Do we need another keeper? |
19 | Mady Camara | Olympiacos | Stayed at Olympiacos | HITC |
20 | Edinson Cavani | PSG | Moved to Man U | Metro |
21 | Dani Ceballos | Real Mad | Came on loan now back with RM | Express, SDNA |
22 | Chiesa | Fiorentina | Moved to Juventus | Juventus, Inter, Chelsea and Manchester United all want him, Canon, Sun, Express all say we want him |
23 | Barcelona | Stayed at Barcelona | Talksport, Express. Daily Mirror says talks have opened. Express now says Arsenal can’t afford his wages. Latest is it would only be for one year. But Barce will let AFC have him at a discount (Metro). Mirror says it is on. But now says no it isn’t! | |
24 | Marc Cucurella | Barcelona | Moved to Getafe | FoLo £20.9m |
25 | Danilo | Porto | Moved to Juventus | ESPN |
26 | Jonathan David | Gent | Moved to Lille | Football.London. Arsenal Fever say transfer is likely. Manchester United, Ajax, Everton, Inter Milan and FC Porto also want him. |
27 | Ousmane Dembélé | Barcelona | Stayed at Barce | AS, Sun. HITC says Arsenal have been given the go ahead to buy Dembele for £53m, or £37 (Sport). Deal going through |
28 | Emmanuel Dennis | Clubbe Brugge | Moved to Watford | Talkport, HITC, Transfer market, sportsmole… Daily Mail says it is on for £22m. FoLo says definitely leaving. Manager reported as agreeing |
29 | Moussa Diaby | Bayer Leverkusen | Stayed at Bayer Leverkusen | TBR blaming Le10Sport. Signed for a “bargain £13.5million” from Paris Saint-Germain last summer. Teamtalk says talks have begun |
30 | Amadou Diawara | Roma | Stayed at Roma | Talks have begun (TBR football, Telegraph). Swap deal for Torreira? |
31 | Axel Disasi | Reims | Moved to Monaco which some media did predict | TBR, L’Equippe, Sun. Reims manager says it is on – £13m. RMC Sport agrees. |
Signed | Jonathan Dinzeyi | Tottenham | Joined Arsenal under 23s | Reputed to be about to happen. Talksport |
33 | Issa Diop | WHU | Stayed at WHU | Mirror, Metro, Read Arsenal, HITC, West Sussex Today, Sun |
34 | Julian Draxler | PSG | Stayed at PSG | Teamtalk. Daily Canon says it is on |
35 | Odsonne Edouard | Celtic | Stayed at Celtic | |
36 | Eberechi Eze | QPR | Moved to Crystal Palace | |
37 | Nebil Fekir | Real Betis | ||
38 | Nathan Ferguson | WBA | Moved to Crystal Palace | |
39 | Joelson Fernandes | Sporting Lisbon | ||
SIGNED | Marcelo Flores | |||
41 | Wesley Fofana | St Etienne | Moved to Leicester | |
42 | Fraser Forster | Celtic on loan at Southampton | Stayed at Southampton | |
43 | Noah Francoise | Rennes | Stayed at Rennes | |
44 | Ryan Fraser | Bournemouth, contract ends this year | Moved to Newcastle | |
45 | Bruno Fuchs | Internacional | Moved to CSKA Moscow | |
46 | César Gelabert | Palencia | Moved to Real Madrid reserves | |
47 | Gerson | Flamingo midfielder |
Moved to Marseille | |
48 | Armin Gigovic | Sweden youth international | Moved to Rostov | |
49 | Serge Gnabry | Bayern Munich | Stayed at Bayern | Reports everywhere say he was seen in an Arsenal shirt |
50 | Ben Godfrey | Norwich | Moved to Everton | Liverpool and Tottenham, Dortmund and RB Leipzig all after him according to the Sun |
51 | Jack Grealish | Aston Villa | Stayed at Villa | FoLo say Arsenal making late bid |
52 | Antoine Griezmann | Barcelona | Stayed at Barcelona | |
53 | Pape Gueye, | Le Harvre | Moved to Olympic Marseille | Liverpool also interested. Folo, World of Football. Was going to Watford, now isn’t (L’Equipe) Sportwitness say Arsenal have offered to treble his salary. HITC say “reportedly” |
54 | Serhou Guirassy | Amiens | Moved to Rennes | Daily Mail. WHU and Bournemouth also interested |
55 | Dennis Gyamfi | Leicester | Moved to Dynamo Zagreb reserves | Online Gooner |
56 | Achraf Hakimi | Borussia Dortmund, on loan from Real Madrid | Moved to PSG | TBR Football |
57 | Kai Havertz | Bayer Leverkusen midfielder | Moved to Chelsea | Chelsea and Liverpool are also said to be after him, along with Bayern Munich. |
58 | Mauro Icardi | PSG striker | Stayed at PSG | Swap deal for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Sun FoLo, Tuttosport and Media Referee |
59 | Ricky Jade-Jones | Peterborough Utd | Stayed at Peterborough | Arsenal, Man U and Liverpool are after this Peterborough Utd player. HITC, Sky |
60 | Raul Jimenez | Wolverhampton | Stayed at Wolves | BBC, NBC |
61 | Diogo Jota | Wolverhampton | Moved to Liverpool | Sport Review, 4th official, Mail, FoLo, Whoscored |
62 | Luca Jovic | Real Madrid | Stayed at Real Madrid | Daily Express / Starspost / Sport. Just Arsenal wonder if he is worth the risk. |
63 | Glen Kamara | Rangers | Stayed at Rangers | France Football say, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton and Marseille are interested |
64 | Calum Kavanagh | Middlesbrough | Stayed at Middlesbrough | Lancs Post, The 72, Northern Echo |
65 | Jonjoe Kenny | Schalke 04 on loan from Everton | Stayed at Everton | Tottenham want him |
66 | Franck Kessie | AC Milan | Stayed at AC Milan | Calciomercato. Swap for Torreira (Transfer Tavern), Star, Hammernews. |
67 | Justin Kluivert | Roma | Moved to Nice on loan | Daily Star say a swop deal is being arranged with Mkhitaryan. Sportwitness saw swap is most likely. Media Referee and Corriere dello Sport update. Mail says it is definite |
68 | Orkun Kökçü | Feyenoord | Stayed at Feyenoord | Express, FoLo. Express now saying he is the new Ozil. Red London say£23m. |
69 | Tanguy Kouassi | Free agent | Moved to Bayern Munich | HITC, Metro |
70 | Marash Kumbulla | Hellas Verona | Moved to Roma on loan | Daily Mirror compared to young Chiellini. Sports Mole say Arsenal are considering… HITC says now very close |
71 | Layvin Kurzawa | PSG (out of contract). Media Ref says he would bring confidence | Stayed at PSG | Express says he wants to go to Barcelona. Sport, HITC, Sport Witness, Daily Star say Arsenal. 4th official says “he’s signed |
72 | Thomas Lemar | Atlético Madrid | Stayed at Atletico Madrid | Star, Sun reactivate major story in last window. Marca and HITC say his wages make him impossible to sell |
SIGNED | George Lewis | Tromsø – out of contract. Deal close (Goal) | 19 year old winger | HITC, Cannon, Arsenal Youth, Kigalitoday, Arsenal Mania. Metro (done) Caught offside (not yet). Sports Mole (almost). Done – shirt number 78. |
74 | Jesse Lingard | Man U | Stayed at Man U | Caught offside say Celtic and Chelsea want him |
75 | Isaac Lihadji | Marseille, 17 year old winger | Moved to Man U | The Boot Room, Foot Mercato, TBR Football and the Sun all have this, Discussions begun |
76 | Matty Longstaff | Newcastle | Stayed at Newcastle | The |
77 | Dejan Lovren | Liverpool | Moved to Zenit St Petersburg | Express, HITC, FoLo |
SIGNED | Pablo Mari | Arsenal on loan from Flamengo | Left sided centre back | The Athletic – he’ll be made permanent |
SIGNED | Gabriel Magalhaes | Centre back with Lille | Everton, Chelsea, Leicester in for him. Express says its Arsenal | HITC, Sports Mole, The Sun, LT Arsenal, le10Sport, Metro, Canon, Football London, TransferTavern. Going to Napoli? “Ask Ornstein” talking AFC up. Fresharsenal says it is happening. Star says deal is done |
80 | Dries Martens | Napoli, 32 year old forward | Stayed with Napoli | CalcioMercato, the Metro and on Football.London |
81 | Nikola Maksimovic | Napoli, centre back | Left Napoli 2021 and is free agent | HITC, The12thman, HITC, Flipboard and Daily Canon, while The Sun, Express and Talk Sport |
82 | ||||
83 | ||||
84 | Mykola Matviyenko | 24-year-old left-back. who plays for Saky in Ukraine. | Moved to Shakhtar Donetsk | Daily Canon |
85 | Dwight McNeill | Burnley | Stayed with Burnley | Lancs Live. Apparently lots of clubs want him |
86 | Arkadiusz Milik | Napoli | Moved to Marseille on loan | 26 years old. Inside Football, HITC |
87 | Alberto Moreno | Valencia £50m | Stayed with Villareal | Metro, Mirror, replacement for Aubameygang. “A bad move” says Media Referee |
88 | Evan N’Dicka | Eintracht Frankfurt | Stayed with Eintracht Frankfurt | |
89 | Wilfred Ndidi | Leicester | Stayed with Leicester | |
90 | Neto | Barcelona | Moved to Wolverhampton | |
91 | Ruben Neves | Wolverhampton | Stayed with Wolverhampton | Sports Mole |
92 | Unai Nunez | Athletic Bilbao. £27m release fee. | Stayed with Athletic Bilbao | Daily Mail says WHU want him. Arsenal ready to meet price, Read Arsenal, Who Scored. Transfer Sport Witness says it is on. Metro. AS. |
93 | Victor Osimhen | Lille (who say Arsenal have made an offer) | Moved to Napoli | Le Quotidien du Foot, Bootroom. Replacement for Aubameyang. Express, Goal, Footy Extras. Boot Room |
94 | Danilo Pereira | Man U | Moved to PSG | We will get him if we don’t get Partey. ESPN |
SIGNED | Thomas Partey | Atletico Madrid. (26 year old from Ghana) | Signed for Arsenal | Metro, Goal. Squawka quote €50m. HITC also. He’ll move if At Mad dont get Champs Lge Just £45m! Guardian. Metro now says Arsenal can’t afford him. Deal close. He’s expected at Arsenal for next season. HITC talking this up |
96 | Lorenzo Pellegrini | Roma | Stayed at Roma | Teamtalk, Eurofootball Rumours, Bleacher, Sports Mole, Daily Cannon, Sky Sports all blame each other for the tale. |
97 | Adrien Rabiot | Juventus | Stayed at Juventus | Just Arsenal, Standard. Torreira to be sold. TransferSport Witness says we are “leaning towards” getting them. Sports Mole says could happen. |
98 | Sergio Reguilon | Sevilla on loan from Read Mad | Moved to Tottenham | Sun, Talksport, Goonernews, Just Arsenal, Arsenalmania, media referee |
99 | Chris Richards | Bayern Munich | Stayed at Bayern | Chelsea, Valencia and one major Bundesliga side also interested. |
100 | Marc Roca | Espanyol | Moved to Bayern Munich | Sport, 4th official. “Arsenal want to pay £13.5m less than what’s needed for midfielder” says |
101 | Declan Rice | West Ham | Stayed at WHU | Express (according to Arsenal “legend” P Merson) |
102 | Emil Roback | Hammarby, Sweden. | Moved to Milan | TBR, spotted at London Colney |
103 | James Rodriguez | Real Madrid | Moved to Everton | Mail. Arsenal and Man U after him (Team Talk). Marca say Arsenal still interested |
104 | Kays Ruiz-Atil | PSG | Moved to Barcelona B | L’Équipe: ‘next Lionel Messi’, |
105 | Allan Saint-Maximin | Newcastle | Stayed at Newcastle | Express, Northern Echo |
SIGNED | Salah-Eddine | Feyenoord | Young midfielder | Free transfer |
107 | Mohammed Salisu | Real Valladolid; he’s a defender with a €12 million release clause. | Moved to Southampton | Mundo Deportivo has indeed said that Arsenal are among the clubs interested |
108 | Morgan Sanson | Marseille Midfielder | Moved to Aston Villa | Football London. He’s played 110 games for Marseille |
109 | Malang Sarr | Nice | Moved to Chelsea | HITC: “Bargain of the summer,” Sun: “Skint Arsenal on hunt for free transfers”. Bleacher and Football Whispers also has this. |
110 | Patrik Schick | Roma on loan to RB Leipzig | Moved to Bayer Leverkusen | Gazzetta dello Sport |
111 | Rafa Silva | Benfica | Stayed at Benfica | £71.5m says the |
112 | Chris Smalling | Roma on loan from Man U; Roma pulled out of deal for him | Stayed at Roma | Just Arsenal News; Arsenal launch £25m bid; Mirror. HITC, Express, Standard. Only if Man U get Koulibaly (Just Arsenal) |
SIGNED | Cédric Soares | Southampton | Right back | Free transfer |
114 | Everton Soares | Grêmio | Moved to Benfica | Edu said not to be keen |
115 | Carlos Soler | Valencia | Stayed at Valencia | Sky Sports, Standard, FoLo, Agent says he’s happy to stay where he is Daily Star. |
116 | John Stones | Man City | Stayed at Man City | Manchester Evening News, 90 mins. Arsenal and Everton in battle for him. Sun says he is leaving. Carragher says he won’t play for Man C again. Fo Lo say it is possible |
117 | Dominik Szoboszlai | Red Bull Salzburg | Moved to RB Leipzig | He has played for them 44 times so far. Milan also want him as do PSG (Calciomercato.com) |
118 | Nicolás Tagliafico | Ajax | Stayed at Ajax | Standard, Daily Mail |
119 | Malick Thiaw | Schalke 04. | Stayed at Schalke | Sport Review; Daily Mail Liverpool and Man C also interested. |
120 | Corentin Tolisso | Bayern Munich, central midfield | Stayed at Bayern Munich | Express, FootMercato. Just Arsenal News say it is between Arsenal and Man U |
121 | Ferran Torres | Villa Real | Moved to Man City | Sun £43m. Santi Caz is talking him up. He’s learning English! (Just Arsenal) |
122 | Adama Traore | Wolverhampton | Stayed at Wolves | Daily Star. He started out with Barcelona. |
123 | Samuel Umtiti | Barcelona | Stayed at Barcelona | Express says he’s available at a discount as he’s always injured |
124 | Cengiz Under | Roma | Moved to Marseille on loan | Leggo: Arsenal could swap him for Mkhitaryan and some money HITC, the Boot Room and the Express. |
125 | Dayot Upamecano | RB Leipzig | Moved to Bayern Munich | Football.London. “Arsenal have won the battle to sign him” Express. Touted again 23 Aug. |
126 | Gabriel Veron | Stayed at Palmeiras | “The Brazilian wonderkid” Football London | |
127 | Domagoj Vida | Stayed at Beşiktaş | Aksam | |
128 | Walce | Stayed at Sao Paulo | Talk Sport, Sport Witness | |
129 | Wout Weghorst | Stayed at Wolfsberg | Team Talk, Express, Blid. Replacement for Aubameyang | |
SIGNED | Willian | Chelsea, winger, attacking midfield | Talks have broken down with Chelsea, Arsenal now favourites | Metro, Fo.Lo, Sun, ESPN, Whoscored. Mail and Sun say he’s the top target. Mail now saying he’s on the way. Imminent transfer (TBR) Medical passed (Sportslens) |
131 | Chris Wood | Burnley | Stayed at Burnley | |
132 | Freddie Woodman | Newcastle on loan at Swansea | Stayed at Newcastle United. | Chronicle Live, TBR, 90 mins, Soccersouls, Teamtalk, HITC, BBC, Sports Lens, FL World |
133 | Wilfried Zaha | Crystal Palace | Stayed at Palace | This old story has been brought back by Sky – so it is new this week for this window. Pain in the Arsenal, Bleacher |
134 | Hakim Ziych | Ajax | Moved to Chelsea | Was selected as one of the 20 best players in the Champions League for 2018/19 season. Also tipped for Jan window. |
This summer’s transfer tips so far: A to K
This summer’s transfer tips so far: K to Z
134 examples of Bloody stupid “journalism”. In other words: Blah, blah, blah.
It’s interesting to note where the ones that actually did move ended up.
Taking a cursory look, quite a few were signed by the “wealthy” clubs e.g. Man City, Chelsea, PSG, Barca, Juve etc. So from that I’d suggest that even if we had wanted them, we would not have been able to compete on a financial level so any thought of them moving to us was pretty much nonsense.
Others ended up at what I would consider lesser clubs (no offence) i.e. EPL teams we would expect to consistently out perform. I would therefore suggest that in many cases we weren’t interested enough as, by and large, Arsenal would be a more attractive target, likely to pay higher wages (unless of course the players in question had heard about how unforgiving the referees, the media and some fans are towards the team!).
The one I find the most intriguing, however, is Nikola Maksimovic who left Napoli and is still a free agent. So in fact either nobody wanted him or his demands were so unreasonable nobody would consider him……..yet apparently he was good enough for us! So clearly we are so slow at doing our transfer business we’ve still not managed to sign somebody who nobody else wants 🙂
I still, however, think you are overly generous to the media. Can they really be given credit for the handful of rumours they got right when even those claims are made quite late in the process when the story has become common knowledge. Indeed, even if the did make the claim months before, they still deserve no credit since, for me, it’s a question of monkeys and typewriters.
All in all, the hard work you guys at UA put in every summer does, as you rightly claim, show the media up for the charlatans they are. Well done.
You have surely done this story to death. In asmuch that you have alerted Arsenal fans to be very cautious about believing any transfer speculation, you have done us a service.
But any sports journalist or blogger reading your articles may be laughing. Their job is to interest and entertain their football loving audience. Feeding us with crap about things we are interested in is all part of the game. The “truth” hardly comes into it. In asmuch as you are drawing attention to what they write, sometimes providing links, aren’t you just playing their game?
But nevertheless important Hans, because after Arsenal don’t sign these players the media then blame Arsenal for being too slow, incompetent, having owners with their hands in the till, etc. The blame is handed over to Arsenal whereas it lies fair and square with the media.
I thought Hans Andersson was a Christian.
Dublin Gooner
Surely the media have done making up transfer stories and then slagging off Arsenal to death, but it doesn’t stop them does it ? No.
So why should we (Untold and many of us regulars) stop highlighting the insanity of it all, especially as in my humble opinion it actually has a negative effect on our fan base, and as a consequence on our team.
If you think making this **** up, and it’s subsequent effect on our team, is all fine and dandy, that’s up to you, but don’t knock people who are prepared to call them out for the charlatans they are.
Personally I detest the media and how they treat my beloved team and will continue to call them out at every opportunity.