Leeds v Arsenal: the tackles, fouls, yellow cards. Time for Leeds to wake up.

By Bulldog Drummond

Thankfully the updated data on fouls which was somewhat delayed (perhaps the computer had covid) has finally come through so we can now look at the forthcoming match against Leeds in the usual way:

Club	Tackles	Fouls	Yellow cards
Arsenal	252	153	24
Leeds	330*	204	47*
Percentage Leeds above Arsenal	31%	33%	96%

*Leeds have committed the highest number of tackles and received the highest number of yellow cards so far this season.  In terms of fouls they are fourth highest.

So we can see at once the totally different style and approach that Leeds United has from that of Arsenal.  They are seeing tackling as the way for them to survive in the Premier League, and so are taking the consequences of their actions.  However if we look at the table of yellow cards we can see a certain link between the clubs….

Rank	Club	Yellows	League position
1.	Leeds United	47	16
2.	Newcastle United	42	19
3.	Brighton and Hove Albion	38	13
4.	Aston Villa	35	10
5.	Everton	35	14

It doesn’t hold up all the time but generally speaking, tackling a lot, having fouls again and then getting yellow cards invariably means the club is lacking players with the skill to anticipate passes and movement, which in turn results in a lower position in the league.

But let’s come back to our regular table of tackles, fouls and yellow cards and see the relationships…

Club	Tackles per foul	Tackles per yellow card	Fouls per yellow card
Arsenal	1.65	10.5	6.38
Leeds United	1.62	7.02	4.34

We may perhaps have expected Leeds to be picking up more fouls as a result of tackles, but referees are obviously seeing Leeds’ tackling and Arsenal’s tackling in the same way.

However, the sheer volume of Leeds’ tackling is what is getting them penalised when it comes to yellow cards.   Although the number of tackles Arsenal can undertake before having a foul called against them is the same as Leeds, the volume of Leeds fouling means they get much less leeway.

The referees are not suggesting Leeds’ fouls are worse than Arsenal’s (if they were the tackles per foul ratio would be higher) but rather that Leeds are delivering so many fouls they are getting yellows more often.  Arsenal can deliver half as many tackles again before getting a yellow card as Leeds United.

Now you might think that someone would notice this.   We know the journalists won’t because these figures suggest that referees are controlling the game by impression not by the rules. And no newspaper in England would dare suggest that a referee employed by PGMO is ever doing anything other than being the best in the world.

But Leeds’ management ought to realise that the number of tackles they are putting in is part of the reason that they are getting yellow cards.  Leeds in short are losing out by not managing their play to accommodate the bias of the refs.

The other factor is that the number of fouls they are getting contributes to yellow cards.  Now that is more reasonable on the part of the referees because yellows can be given for repeated foul play.   

So this high fouling tactic is giving them almost half as many yellow cards again, as Arsenal.  That is entirely Leeds’ fault, and really they ought to wake up to this.  Maybe they don’t employ statisticians at Leeds United on the grounds that you can prove anything with statistics.

Thus we can say that referees are treating Leeds unfairly in relation to the number of tackles it takes to get a yellow card, but fairly in the sense of penalising repeated foul play.

Therefore, we can expect in this game that Leeds will continue at the high level of tackling and fouling and so get more yellows than Arsenal.

There is more on the stats surrounding this game at Leeds United v Arsenal, the form guide, home and away