By Tony Attwood
Now there’s a headline I am pretty sure you won’t see written anywhere else. But let’s see just how possible it is for Arsenal to finish above Chelsea, based on the games to come and recent results.
Here is the league table
We can all see that with three games in hand over Manchester United, it is quite likely that we will be able to get at least one win from those games meaning that thereafter if we match Manchester United’s record we would get that top-four finish.
But to end up above Chelsea? That surely is a step too far!
To work out if that is indeed the case we have taken Arsenal’s form across the last 14 games the club has played and Chelsea’s form across the last 13 games that they have played. Then, rather obviously, we have added the results to the existing league table, to create a season’s end league table based on recent form.
And let me add that of course, I am not so naive as to believe that just because the last 13 or 14 games have ended in a particular manner, the next 13 or 14 will be the same. Form ebbs and flows, there can be injuries, and there is always the notorious PGMO to consider.
But still it gave me a bit of amusement so I thought I would share it with you.
So we can look at Chelsea’s last 13 and Arsenal’s last 14 games. And let me stress, this is not the average across the season but the 13 and 14 most recent games the two clubs have played in the league.
But we need to go a bit further than this. Each side has 19 home games and 19 away games overall, and looking at the table we find that Arsenal have six home games left and eight away games. So we need to take the last six at home and last eight away and add them to our current league position, rather than just the last 14 games.
Meanwhile, Chelsea have seven home games left and six away games. So now we start adding in the requisite numbers for each side and thus incorporating the fact that although Chelsea have fewer games to play, they have more of a home advantage.
Here is the table of Arsenal’s last six home games and last eight away games, plus in comparison Chelsea’s last seven home games and their last six away games.
Thus based on the last 13 and 14 games divided into home and away according to the number left for each side, Arsenal will get 26 points and Chelsea 19.
Meanwhile the current league table shows
So adding the results of recent home and away games in the number needed to the current league table we create a final league table of…
Thus Arsenal would come in ahead of Chelsea.
Obviously, the future is never a total re-write of the past. But this little bit of fun does emphasise the phenomenal progress that Arsenal have made this year, and the consistency of their approach.
This is very reminiscent of last season where the approach of not tackling was perfected by Christmas, and then used by the team to create a major upturn in results.
This season again has shown a bit of a slow start again because of the illnesses that we had just at a time of introducing a totally new defence, but the performance that we have been seeing of late shows just how well this has gone.
Obviously, the media will publish none of this, just as last year they refused to recognise that extraordinary turnaround in our tactics after Christmas. So in response Untold likes to continue its tradition of covering the stories no one else, with their ceaseless anti-Arsenal bias, will ever cover.
I must stress I am not saying I am certain we will end up third. All I am saying is that if we continue to the end of the season, playing as we have in the last 14 games, we are likely to get to third. Which means no Champions League Group Stages 4th Preliminary Round.
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