By Bulldog Drummond
It was on 4 February 2020 that the cat was let out of the bag with our article Stats show something very odd going on in the PL that the media won’t discuss.
The scandal was revealed in one sentence: “Arsenal has to commit 4.32 fouls to get a yellow card while for Leicester the figure is 9.48.”
We then continued, “…while the other figures [in the analyses] are understandable this is an extraordinary difference – noteworthy not least because the ranges elsewhere are so much smaller. Arsenal are getting more than twice as many yellow cards from fouls as Leicester.”
Because of this, and the extraordinary findings that followed from this revelation (that were of course not carried anywhere else), any match against Leicester is dominated (at least for those of us who think statistics are of interest) with consideration of exactly this question: what are Leicester doing in terms of referees at the moment.?
But just before we get to that (in the next article today) we need to cover the basics of the forthcoming game against Leicester.
The injury situation at Arsenal is simple and straightforward. Emile Smith Rowe is fit and ready to play again but every precaution is being taken with Takehiro Tomiyasu, of whom the club say, “We are still assessing him. We are taking some time to try to protect him and get him in the best and the safest possible way so he can help the team as quick as possible.”
The club with the most reported injuries according to the Premier Injuries website is Newcastle United with ten men down.
Leicester have injuries to Timothy Castagne, Jonny Evans, Jamie Vardie, Ricardo Barbosa Pereira, and Ryan Bertrand while Wesley Fofana is ill.
In terms of the home and away form Arsenal have the clear advantage as we are third in the home table for the whole season while Leicester are 15th in the away table for the home season.
|15||Leicester City away||12||3||3||6||18||25||-7||12|
Looking at the averages, Arsenal’s average home score approximates to 2-1 win, while Leicester’s average away score approximates to a 2-0 defeat. Put them together and we even see a 4-1 win to the Arsenal!
Leicester are still in the Europa Conference and indeed had a home game this week against Renees in the quarter-finals which they won 2-0 so that could be acting as something of a distraction. In the FA Cup they were knocked out by our nemesis Nottingham Forest, by 4-1.
Which leave us to consider the league results. Of the last seven Leicester have won two games – the last two against the might of Burnley and Leeds United. Of the other five three were lost and two were drawn. They are not scoring more than two in any game.
|19 Jan 2022||Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur||L||2-3|
|23 Jan 2022||Leicester City v Brighton and Hove A||D||1-1|
|10 Feb 2022||Liverpool v Leicester City||L||2-0|
|13 Feb 2022||Leicester City v West Ham United||D||2-2|
|20 Feb 2022||Wolverhampton Wans v Leicester City||L||2-1|
|01 Mar 2022||Burnley v Leicester City||W||0-2|
|05 Mar 2022||Leicester City v Leeds United||W||1-0|
Although this looks like something of an improvement, we perhaps should remember that Leeds are 16th and Burnley 18th in the league this season at the moment.
Indeed taking our current favourite form table of the last ten league games played we find that Leicester have been doing even worse than Tottenham.
|7||West Ham United||10||5||2||3||16||11||5||17|
Overall since winning the league in 2016 when Leicester beat Arsenal into second place, their results have taken a spot of a downturn leaving them 12th, 9th twice and fifth twice, although of course those two fifth positions have meant that they have finished above Arsenal in the last two seasons.
In last season’s venture into the Europa League they went out in the round of 32.
So all round the odds look rather in Arsenal’s favour. We’re on a fine run of form and are not distracted by any European issues – or come to that any cup issues at all.
Coming up next we will be having a look at Leicester’s rather curious history with regards to tackles, fouls and yellow cards.